提名川普为2018诺贝尔和平奖得主是假新闻

北欧绿色邮报网报道(记者陈雪霏)– 提名川普为2018诺贝尔和平奖候选人的新闻是假新闻。瑞典和平研究所主任亨利在他写的名单新闻中提到。但如果提名是为2019年,那现在就没有公布。

他在去年的新闻中提到习近平主席曾被中国人民大学教授王义桅提名。但是,评委会认为由于南海问题等诸多问题不合适。同时,俄罗斯总统普京和斯诺登也都被提名。

今年,他依然认为斯诺登应该获奖。笔者认为或许欧洲人权委员会能获奖。

中国的袁隆平曾经获得提名。胡笳等一批人也被提名。但都没有得奖。

Nobel Peace Prize 2018: PRIO Director’s Shortlist

Based on independent assessments, PRIO Directors have offered their personal shortlists for the Nobel Peace Prize every year since 2002. Current Director is Henrik Urdal.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee   bases its decision on valid nominations received by the 31 January deadline.  Anyone can be nominated (and history indeed shows a few rather dubious nominees, including Hitler), but only a number of people have the right to nominate  , including members of national assemblies and governments, current and former members of the Committee, Peace Prize laureates, professors of certain disciplines, directors of peace research and foreign policy institutes, and members of international courts. The five committee members have until their first meeting after the deadline to add nominations of their own. The Director of PRIO holds the right to nominate, but refrains, given his active role as a commentator. He has no form of association with the Nobel Institute or the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Read more here.

The laureate will be announced, as per usual, on the Friday of the first full week of October.

Following the shortlist, you will also find a list of known nominations.

For questions, requests for further information or interviews,
please contact the Director’s Adviser  or the Director directly .

 

Henrik Urdal’s 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Shortlist

  1. Dr. Denis Mukwege & Nadia Murad
  2. World Food Programme
  3. Oby Ezekwesili & EITI
  4. International Memorial
  5. Can Dündar & Cumhuriyet

Dr. Denis Mukwege & Nadia Murad

The early frontrunners for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize should be Denis Mukwege and NadiaMurad, two people who have been leading figures in bringing attention to sexual violence in conflict. Although their experiences and practices differ greatly, there can be no doubt about the potency of their global advocacy work against sexual violence in conflict. Denis Mukwege has provided treatment for thousands of women and is a world-renowned expert on repairing the physical damage from rape and sexual violence. Through the work done at his Panzi Hospital in Bakuvu, Democratic Republic of Congo, he has been instrumental in drawing the world’s attention to these kinds of crimes. In addition to Mukwege, who has featured on both mine and my predecessor’s shortlist earlier, the work of Nadia Murad as an international advocate against sexual violence in conflict deserves recognition. Murad, one of the thousands of Yazidi women and girls who were abducted and held by the Islamic State as slaves, has worked relentlessly to bring attention to victims of sexual violence in wars. While there is increased focus and criminal prosecution of sexual violence in armed conflicts, we see that groups use it in new and systematic ways. Therefore, the highlighting of Murad’s case takes on a new dimension of importance. However, she’s not only a spokesperson for victims of sexual violence in conflict, but also for her people – and, alongside her attorney Amal Clooney, she’s working the international system for Islamic State members to be prosecuted, taking her case all the way to the UN for justice. Murad has won the Sakharov human rights prize along with fellow Yazidi Lamiya Aji Bashir, who would also be a worthy candidate for recognition in a year celebrating the 10-year anniversary of UN Security Council Resolution 1820, which explicitly recognizes the use of sexual violence as a tactic of war and a war crime.

[For the sake of transparency, it should be noted that PRIO researchers have collaborated with Mukwege and the Panzi Hospital for a research project on female empowerment.]

World Food Programme

Hunger is once more one of the big humanitarian challenges of our times, with various hunger crises emerging in the wake of armed conflicts. The World Food Programme is the leading humanitarian organization tackling the hunger issue worldwide. Whether food insecurity follows due to armed conflicts such as in Syria and Yemen (where over 17 million people depend on the WFP for survival, according to their own statistics) or internal displacement and ethnic tensions such as in Myanmar, the WFP is ever-present.

While the evidence for an impact of food security on violent conflict remains tenuous, it is well established that armed conflict severely affects food security. Indeed, the final report of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals rightfully identifies armed conflict as the main reason for failures to meet the MDG target of increased food security. Hence, while reducing food insecurity in itself might not be the most important peacebuilding measure, conflict prevention and food security remain intrinsically linked.

A Nobel Peace Prize to the WFP would highlight the crucial work the organization is doing for populations fleeing from conflict, while also ensuring continued commitment from its funders to keep up their endeavors to make sure victims of conflict, displacement and natural disasters are fed and cared for. Hopefully this will also pave the way for further conflict prevention measures. Hunger crises might not get the headlines that wars and armed conflicts do, but they are just as – if not more – deadly.

Oby Ezekwesili & EITI

Corruption is a main driver of social upheavals around the globe, underpinning recent major developments like the Arab Spring. Corruption also thrives during and after war, and many conflict-affected countries are among the most corrupt in the world. Oby Ezekwesili, former Minister of Education in Nigeria and Vice President for Africa in the World Bank and one of the founders of Transparency International, has been an international champion in the fight against corruption. Ezekwesili was also the Federal Minister of Solid Minerals and the Chairperson of the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), leading the first ever national implementation of the global EITI standards.

Ezekwesili and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) are worthy candidates because of their efforts in making the world more transparent and less corrupt. The link between armed conflict and high-value natural resources is strong: EITI was established in 2003 as a direct response to the mounting evidence showing that poor governance of natural resources may lead to an economic ‘resource curse’ and increased conflict. Increased transparency over extraction processes and financial results has led to a more sober and nuanced debate about the extractive industries and their output, and has the potential to help defuse conflicts and reducing tensions before they even happen. EITI’s efforts to create multi-stakeholder groups in which civil society is involved is a model case for inclusiveness in such a politically and economically important issue.

Anti-corruption and transparency champions have not traditionally been considered as obvious candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize. Yet, natural resources, transparency, corruption and conflict are intrinsically linked. This important work by individuals and organizations like Ezekwesili and EITI is deserving of attention, and a Nobel Peace Prize to the field of anti-corruption and transparency would be a welcome boost now that key actors such as the U.S. have abandoned the EITI by the wayside.

International Memorial

Russian civil society organization International Memorial monitors human rights in Russia and works to put Russia and the Soviet Union’s totalitarian past on the record. In an ever more repressive environment, Memorial defends and upholds its ideals with quiet dignity, and provides a welcome shining light for democracy, civil society, and human rights in Russia. In 2016 Memorial was listed as a “foreign agent” by the Russian government, a tactic Human Rights Watch say is used to “demonize” dissenting voices. The organization and its members have also suffered arrests, abuse, and attempted murder, as well as the arson of offices in Chechnya and the Northern Caucasus.

With the upcoming presidential election likely to see Vladimir Putin reelected without any notable change to his platform, Memorial is needed more than ever to remind Russians and the world that the spread of authoritarianism has to be countered and fought against.

One of Memorial’s founding members, Svetlana Gannushkina, has been listed on the PRIO Director’s Nobel shortlist earlier – for her efforts helping migrants and refugees in Russia. However, every man and woman who contributes to make Memorial the great organization it is deserves credit and recognition. A Nobel Peace Prize to Memorial would be an acknowledgement of the peaceful efforts made by Russian civil society to oppose authoritarianism and advocate freedom, democracy, and human rights in Russia.

Can Dündar & Cumhuriyet

Exiled Cumhuriyet editor Can Dündar and his erstwhile paper remain symbols of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s crackdown on the freedom of the press in Turkey. Dündar has faced charges of disclosing state secrets and aiding a terrorist group, and later fled to Germany where he still resides. Similar charges have been filed against several of Cumhuriyet staff, and many of the court cases are still ongoing. The acts for which they are indicted amount to no more than doing their jobs as journalists by pursuing independent and critical reporting. Dündar himself was awarded the International Press Freedom Award by The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) in 2016.

Dündar and the newspaper where he served as a columnist and later editor-in-chief, Cumhuriyet, are disheartening examples of how far freedom of the press has declined in Turkey. One of Turkey’s oldest newspapers and a steadfast secular and republican-leaning publication, Cumhuriyet has been renowned for its independent reporting and fearlessness in criticizing the authorities – underscored by it being awarded the 2015 Freedom of the Press Prize by Reporters without Borders for its stand against mounting government pressure.

A Nobel Peace Prize to Can Dündar and Cumhuriyet would be a welcome boost for press freedom and civil society in a country where such liberties are becoming rarer. It would also underline Erdogan’s unacceptable dismantling of Turkey’s democracy.

 

Nominations for the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize

The below list is based on available information in the press, on the web or provided to us directly. It is surely far from exhaustive, as the Nobel Committee each year receives more than 200 nominations, and the listings are far from certain. Nominators are asked not to disclose their nominations, and the committee’s proceedings are kept secret for 50 years. Consequently, we cannot guarantee that the committee indeed has received a specific nomination, nor, in some cases, whether the nominator is eligible. As long as the nominator fulfils the criteria, any one person or organization may be nominated regardless of objective standing (the nominations of Hitler and Stalin being cases in point). The committee may also add names to the list, themselves, before their first meeting after the deadline. The committee base their final selection on specifications in Alfred Nobel’s will , their interpretation of which is disputed by the Nobel Peace Prize Watch . The NPPW usually keep their own list of worthy and qualified nominations according to their reading of the will.

  • Edward Snowden has been nominated  by Norwegian MP Petter Eide
  • The White Helmets are nominated  by Norwegian MP Arne Nævra
  • The Committee Against Torture and
  • Olga Sadovskaja have been nominated  by Norwegian MP Petter Eide
  • Novaja Gazeta and
  • Elena Milasjina have been nominated  by Norwegian MP Petter Eide
  • Svetlana Gannusjkina has been nominated  by Norwegian MP Petter Eide
  • The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has been nominated by Norwegian MP Lars Haltbrekken
  • The European Court of Human Rights has been nominated  by Norwegian MP Petter Eide
  • Denis Mukwege and 
  • Yanar Mohammed have been nominated  by Norwegian MP Karin Andersen
  • The Iraqi-kurdish Peshmerga forces have been nominated  by Norwegian MP Himanshu Gulati for helping defeating the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.
  • Joshua Wong Chi-fung,
  • Nathan Law Kwun-chung and
  • Alex Chow Yong-kang, front persons for the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement, have been nominated  by Marco Rubio and a bipartisan group of US congressmen.
  • The Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement for Palestinian rights has been nominated  by Norwegian MP Bjørnar Moxnes
  • The Humanitarian Law Centre and
  • Nataša Kandić has been nominated  by US Senator Roger Wicker and US Representative Eliot Engel.
  • Dr. Daisaku Ikeda is nominated by 1976 Nobel laureate Betty Williams (confirmed by Williams).
  • Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama has most likely been nominated  by Indonesian MP.
  • George Soros has most likely been nominated  by Hungarian group of academics and clergy.
  • Yussouf Shaheen is allegedly nominated by Pakistani nominators, but no actual nomination or names of nominators have been reported in media or submitted to PRIO.
  • The Giulio Andreotti Institute and Secret Archives and
  • Patrizia Chilelli, Director of the Giulio Andreotti Institute and Secret Archives are confirmed nominations by an American Professor of Philosophy. We are unable to verify the existence of an institution by this name, but there does exist an Andreotti Archive at the Sturzo Institute.
  • Peacebuilding organisation Search for Common Ground is nominated  by the American Friends Service Committee (AFSC)
  • Jaha Mapenzi Dukureh, Gambian anti-FGM (Female Genital Mutilation) activist, is nominated  by Norwegian MP Jette Christensen (Labour Party).
  • Ilham Tohti, Uighur intellectual and activist, currently serving life imprisonment in China, is nominated  by Ilhan Kyuchyuk, Bulgarian politican and Member of the European Parliament.
  • Enzo Cursio, Italian journalist is nominated  for his work for peace, human rights and disarmament, by Nobel laureate of 1976, Mairead C. Maguire.
  • Soheil Farah of Lebanon, and
  • Yuri Yakovets of Russia, are reportedly nominated  for their work for a sustainable and peaceful global future, by a group of Russian academics including Professor Alexei Gromyko at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
  • Archbishop Louis Raphaël I Sako, head of the Iraqi Chaldean Church community, is reportedly nominated .
  • The Arctic Council is nominated  by a group of international academics including Lassi Heininen, Professor of Arctic politics at University of Lapland (FI).
Do you have additional (confirmed) nominations to add to the list? Let us know! And just to be clear: if you mean to actually nominate someone, we are not the correct addressee.

The nomination of President Donald J. Trump was reported to us earlier and consequently figured on the above list for some time until it was revealed that the nomination was forged. See e.g. this NY Times article  for more info on the issue.

中国人参加第102届荷兰欧洲国际“奈梅亨四日步行节”侧记

北欧绿色邮报网报道(荷兰特约记者张卓辉)  仲夏连续艳阳天。一位中国姑娘肩扛一面五星红旗迎风招展,昂首阔步向前,汇集于浩荡的行进队伍中,正在跨越荷兰东中部克伊克(Cuijk)市郊沸腾的马斯河舟桥。

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此情景再现今年第102届荷兰欧洲国际“奈梅亨四日步行节(Nijmegen  Vierdaagse, 7月14日至20日)”精彩镜头:正在司令船附近现场采访的笔者喜出望外地赶往舟桥中段,马上截住那个姑娘,“您从那儿来?”“北京!”俩人异邦遇乡亲,无比兴奋地攀谈起来。原来,他们(还有一位正在路上)是来自中国北京体育大学在校大学生毛杰(女)、王康宁,经过4天不懈努力,分别完成了40公里/日和50公里/日的两组别行程,改写了荷兰奈梅根四日步行节没有中国大陆人员完成的历史。他们由北京市民间组织国际交流协会委派、北京万昆体育文化发展有限公司(北京国际山地徒步大会的运营机构)全程赞助。

在终点,奈梅根市长和组委会主席亲自给来自中国的两位年轻人颁发了奖牌,荷兰当地电视台对毛杰进行了现场采访。

那在校俩大学生均属来自中国的北京国际山地徒步大会代表团一行12人。节日当天,他们分成两组活动,一组继续参加第2天的徒步活动,另一组考察了部分线路并且拜会了当地韦亨市市长和荷兰徒步大会主席塞克斯先生及奈梅根四日步行节组委会,并就徒步活动和徒步论坛的组织情况交流了各自的经验,同时邀请他们于2018年9月到北京来参加第九届北京国际山地徒步大会。诚然,该代表团早于2010年就来参加并且综合考奈梅亨“4日开步走运动会”,为同年于9月下旬在北京举行为期两天的北京现代杯第一届国际山地徒步大会来取经。他们表示,2019年是中华人民共和国成立70周年,因而明年将继续协助徒步爱好者与运动员完成报名、组团、注册事宜。希望有更多的中国人来荷兰挑战4日长走,完成200公里的连续徒步活动。

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世界最大远程徒步运动

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瑞典军人徒步。

距离当年3.5万盟军伞兵参加“市场花园”战役,打开消灭法西斯门户最大最壮烈空降战的战场于荷兰阿纳姆(Arnhem)城区15公里远的荷兰东部海尔德兰省(Gelderland)省会奈梅亨,该市为荷兰最古老都郡,两千年前,罗马人就地建城。而“奈梅亨四日走路节”最后一天便是往返奈梅亨市与郊区克伊克边城之间50公里(级)路段。

该边城为进入西德的门槛。此路程是整个大会最精彩热闹最壮观浩大最远距离的一段(站)。途经城郊渡口,每年应届都有陆军在马斯河(荷兰第二大河流)架舟桥(通常由荷兰、比利时、德国部队历届轮番作业,本届由荷徳两军联合完成),完毕后都有荷兰伞兵或者国防运动员定点空降跳伞落桥表演。天堑变通途,乘载军民们顺利走过对岸,从异地折回奈梅亨市。

届时人们会见到:西、北欧诸国辎重、后勤、医疗、陆军空战、交通消防等部队对岸滩头安营扎寨,诸国、军旗猎猎;装甲运兵车、自行火炮、通讯车、军事工程车、军用吉普车、战斗直升飞机、预警直升飞机等军事装备以及乡镇政府接待站、急救中心、军需补给所等一列摆开,迎接抵达的诸国军民团队。俨然欧洲联合国军临战指挥部,实施协同作战演习。军民队伍行进,群众夹道欢迎,口号、呼唤、鼓掌、歌声四起与猎猎招展的军旗、彩旗,鲜花、横竖标语等汇成一片欢乐的海洋!

誉为“欧洲后花园”的奈梅亨地区于1904年7月中下旬举办有荷兰与周边邻国军民群众参加的“4日开步走运动会(VierdaagseFeest)”为全球最古老的徒步活动,最初主要是针对军人而设立的一项活动。第一届徒步行共有306人参加,其中只有10名平民。同年,荷兰女王威廉明娜对“四日行十字徽章”的认可表明荷兰政府对人们在此活动中作出的优秀表现及其重要性进行了认可,以后数年中,参与者人数不断增加。到了1919年,终于有第一名女性N.van Stockum-Metelerkamp 成功走完全程。1928年在首都阿姆斯特丹(Amsterdam)举行的奥运会,导致此活动冲出荷兰,当年的四日徒步行节中,出现了首批应邀来自德国、法国、挪威和英国的步行者参与行走。于是它成为迄今世界上最大的远程徒步行活动,荷兰远足(徒步)运动协会成为世界徒步(远足)运动创始会。之后每年7月14日至20日在该市地区举行一届,历年不断,长盛不衰。进入廿世纪六、七十年代,每届都吸引了数以万计的欧洲诸国军民参加这和平盛典四日大游行。而且每届都有欧盟、荷兰国家、地方政府政要官员,各军兵种首长将领,荣誉军人代表、社会团体代表应邀出席开、闭幕式;诸国平面、立体媒体均临现场直击报道。90年代以来,尤其是21世纪后,均届都有逾三万人, 今年为第102届,参加者已突破44000人。他们来自世界的82个国家,非荷兰人占14%。厄立特里亚、冈比亚、阿曼、坦桑尼亚是第一次来参加此项活动。

这个运动大会无竞赛性质、不设锦标、只需走完全程,大家在步行中认识、交流、联谊,真诚地体现了宗旨理念:“为和平友好,同一个欧洲,同一个梦。”现今她成为世界性的盛大活动中,每年都有来自荷兰、比利时、德国、英国、卢森堡、奥地利、瑞士、瑞典、丹麦、挪威、意大利、希腊等;还有应邀前来的美国、加拿大、澳大利亚等60多个国家与地区的部队军、警团队与民众团体、许多个人志愿者参加者,按照性别和年龄分为每天路程50、40、30公里等不同组别步行4天。

中荷友谊永恒纪念见证

令人瞩目的是,步行者沿途附近会看到一座著名Henk Sneevliet(中文名为“马林”)的立交桥,典故祝本溯源:一部描述荷兰人Henk Maring(马林)长达一个小时的文献纪录片于2011年7月初,庆祝中国共产党成立90周年期间,在荷兰电视第二台播放。凸显当年这位共产国际代表协助中国共产党成立的背景与活动,见证中共一大召开唯一的西方人。2008年4月18日上海市历史博物馆代表团抵达荷兰,前往荷兰共产党人马林曾经居住过的VOLK寻找马林的足迹。马林是这名荷兰共产主义者当时使用的化名(Henk Maring),现以他原名 Henk Sneevliet 命名的立交桥已座落荷兰东部作永恒纪念。而这座宣示中荷友谊见证桥屹立于荷兰东部海尔德兰省境内……

随着祖国改革开放40年来不断深入发展,对外文化交流日益兴旺,出现了越来越多的国内民众踊跃赴欧洲探亲、旅游、留学、投资。而今占中国留荷学生逾八千人之2/5的荷兰东部学府奈梅亨市近几年来,也有不少中国同学、华裔青少年为增强自己的体能,融入当地社会,乐意组队适时参加了此运动会,当地不少华侨华人和荷兰群众一样,夹道摆摊向步行队伍供应茶水、饮料、干粮(饼干、面包等)、水果,全荷乃至西欧唯一中文粤语的荷兰国家广播公司(NPS)“荷华传真”电台亦与时俱进报道概况。例如2008年此节,荷兰副首相、内政部部长、国民康福体部部长、荷兰奥委会主席等政府官员出席了是届大会开幕式,较历届规格之高,而报名参加者有4万多人,有3.5万人走完全程。再加上每天有1万多人自愿步行,4天之内约共16万人次参加了这一盛会。

奈梅亨四日徒步行节每日设有不同的徒步路径,徒步者可以领略荷兰南部海尔德兰省、布拉邦特省和林堡省不同的地貌以及奈梅亨城市与周边地区的风光。每日行程都将围绕奈梅亨附近一个不同的小镇展开。它不仅是一个运动型社交活动,更是一场充满欢歌笑语的夏日派对。步行于每年七月第三个礼拜的星期二正式启程。星期一晚上将会有开幕烟火表演揭开这个国际夏季盛会的序幕。四日徒步期间,沿途的瓦尔河畔设立有露天游乐场,供人们游戏玩耍。沿途经过的城镇市区还将搭起临时舞台,各种露天音乐会跳舞派对林立,吸引了成千上万游客开展节日般的狂欢。

 

 

首面五星红旗跃过舟桥

 

然而,“盼了许多年总算真正看到第一面五星红旗通过此地!”于2013年第97届荷兰国际步行节,一面鲜艳的五星红旗插上背囊顶端的一位中国姑娘与队友并肩阔步行进向在队伍中,儜立在马斯河舟桥中的笔者,情不自禁从夹道欢迎民众里冲出,截住这对中国姑娘。交谈中方晓得她们是留学荷兰奈梅亨大学毕业后在奈梅亨市就业的原广州大学生。她们手腕戴着参加者标志胶圈显露出“50 x”,表示挑战自我能量极限,特地选择全会最长路程50公里身体力行。“享醒世欧洲运动会上宣扬我们国旗是大家共同愿望!”她们不谋而合地开心笑道。笔者和她们与围观军民一起展开国旗合影留念。小歇聚会话别后,她们又精神抖擞,健步跟上接踵而来的队伍继续前进,踏上对岸滩头,穿过两座充气式蓝、红色彩凯旋门“Welkom in Limburg(欢迎进入林堡省区)”,迈向新征程,五星红旗依然肩上迎风飘扬耀眼夺目。

 后来参加2016年第100届此节活动也有几位来自上海市的中国选手。参赛者之一罗昊告诉来访者,他们受“奈梅亨四日行节”赛事主﹑官方赞助商知名运动和户外Hi-Tec运动鞋品牌集团公司的邀请,作为嘉宾来参加这个全球最酷最大的徒步活动。Hi-Tec运动鞋老板Frank van Wezel接待了他们,希望今后随着品牌进入中国,也能够将更多更有趣的国际活动与中国户外爱好者一起分享。罗昊身披五星红旗率领中国队昂首阔步,冒雨挺进。

值得骄傲的是2013年5月8日,在法国尚托奈举行的国际徒步联盟(International Matching Leage)大会上,国际徒步联盟成员国代表表决通过了北京作为国际徒步城市的申请,北京申办国际徒步城市获得成功!北京成为国际徒步爱好者向往的城市,让世界了解中国,让中国的徒步爱好者走出国门,参加全世界各地的徒步活动,领略深厚的徒步文化,让中国融入世界。

 

 

 

上海侨办代表团访问瑞典皇家工学院

北欧绿色邮报网报道–8月13日秋高气爽,瑞典上海联谊会迎来了上海侨办姚卓匀副主任率领的侨办代表团,一起参访瑞典皇家工学院

今天是皇家工学院新生报到的日子

学院化工系严晋婴教授在校门口为大家介绍瑞典皇家工学院的百年建校历史

上海侨办代表团团长姚卓匀副主任,国内处张菡之,秘书人事处韩流,机关党委的钱立功,瑞典皇家工学院严晋婴教授,瑞典上海联谊会副会长鲍近和瑞典上海联谊会副会长兼秘书长谈继东在皇家工学院中心花园留影

皇家工学院的图书馆,图书馆是由三幢老楼的U型外墙加盖玻璃顶和进口的玻璃房构成,古代与现代在千万卷书籍的烘托下浑然一体

兴致勃勃参观图书馆

令人惊讶,工学院的图书馆对所有公众开放

图书馆

气势宏伟的图书馆内景

参观图书馆

校园内与工学院的学生合影

小树林也是校园的一部分,代表团员们感叹瑞典校园的美好

严教授为代表团讲述瑞典皇家工学院的情况,包括学校的分布,专业,世界排名和与各国高校的交流情况等等

姚主任为我们瑞典上海联谊会送来了娘家的近照,宾主在愉快的气氛下交谈甚欢。

 

瑞典上海联谊会秘书处供稿。

林毅夫:中国为何能成为唯一没出现金融危机国家?

中国为什么能成为世界上唯一没有出现金融危机的国家?这个命题其实还是有点儿吹。但是,我觉得这也主要得益于中国的中庸之道和实事求是。尽管我们的金融监管有这样那样的问题,但是,中国人确实有中国的智慧,他们不断地到处访问,到处虚心学习还是有帮助的。同时,中国政府经常根据实际情况进行宏观调控。这就是中国还没有出现金融危机的原因。如果没有政府的控制和小心翼翼,不知道中国会发生什么样的危机呢?
当然,其实金融专家有不同的解读。有人认为政府不要干预,让市场自己折腾一两次,就会成熟了。台湾,韩国都是经历过教训的。但是中国还是不敢放手。这是因为中国根据自己的情况,不希望通过失败来吸取教训而是通过学习来避免危机。从这点上说,笔者和林教授观点也有些趋同了,那就是认为政府的宏观调控不是毫无道理的。是有必要的。另外,中国不是没有出现过经济危机,两年前吧,还是2015年,中国出现了严重危机,很多中产财产蒸发了。但是,中国政府随后采取了加强监管的措施。还有一种可能就是我们的发展还是没有达到饱和的程度。同时,中国的抗风险能力和敏感度还是有的。 一句话,宏观调控有效。
下面看看林教授的观点。

  原标题:林毅夫:中国为什么能成为世界上唯一没有出现金融经济危机的国家?

本文作者林毅夫(资料图)本文作者林毅夫(资料图)

改革开放至今,

中国是世界上唯一没有出现金融经济危机的国家

如果要找一个词来形容改革开放40年中国在经济上取得的成绩,最合适的是“奇迹”这两个字。

1978年改革开放之初,中国是世界上最贫穷的国家之一。按照世界银行的统计指标,1978年我国人均GDP只有156美元,一般认为撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲国家是世界上最贫困的地区,但1978年撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲国家人均GDP是490美元。与世界上其他贫穷国家一样,中国当时有81%的人口生活在农村,84%的人口生活在每天1.25美元的国际贫困线之下。

当时,中国也是非常内向的经济,出口只占国内生产总值的4.1%,进口仅占5.6%,两项加起来仅为9.7%。而且,出口的产品中75%以上是农产品或是农业加工品。

“ 在这么薄弱的基础上,1978年到2017年,中国经济取得了连续39年平均每年9.5%的增长速度,在人类经济史上未曾看到别的国家或地区以这么高的速度持续这么长时间的增长,并且我国对外贸易每年增长的平均速度达到14.5%,在人类经济史上也没有任何别的国家能够这么快速从封闭经济变成开放经济。”

在这样的增长速度下,2009年中国经济规模超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体,2010年中国出口额超过德国,成为世界最大出口国,并且97%以上的出口产品是制造业产品,所以中国被称为“世界工厂”。

“ 曾经被称为“世界工厂”的国家,最早是工业革命以后的英国,到19世纪末20世纪上半叶,“世界工厂”变成美国,二战以后“世界工厂”变成德国、日本,现在变成中国。”

2013年,中国贸易总额超过美国,成为世界第一大贸易国。2014年,按照购买力平价计算,中国经济规模超过美国,成为世界第一大经济体。去年中国人均GDP达到8640美元,成为中等偏上收入国家。

在此过程中,七亿多人口按国际贫困线标准脱贫,对过去40年世界减贫事业的贡献率超过70%。在这段时间内,虽然中国经济崩溃论此起彼伏,但是,改革开放至今,中国是世界上唯一没有出现金融经济危机的国家。

  中国改革开放

  为什么能取得这样的成绩

要回答此问题,必须先了解经济增长的本质是什么,表面上看,是人均收入水平不断提高,物质不断丰富,但是,人均收入提高的前提是劳动生产率的不断提高。提高劳动生产率主要有两种方式:

一种方式是对现有的产业进行技术创新,让劳动者生产出越来越多的好产品;另一种方式是产业升级,将资源从附加值较低的产业部门配置到附加值较高的产业部门。对发达国家和发展中国家而言,这两个方式是一样的。

“ 发展中国家有通过引进、消化、吸收、再创新,实现技术进步和产业升级的可能性,被称为后来者优势。利用这一优势,发展中国家可以以较低的成本和较小的风险,实现技术进步和产业升级,取得比发达国家更快的经济增长。”

这是因为,发达国家的技术和产业处于世界前沿,只有发明新技术、新产业,才能实现技术进步和产业升级。而对于发展中国家而言,只要下一期生产活动采用的技术优于本期,就是技术进步;只要下一期进入的新产业附加值高于本期,就是产业升级。

由于技术先进程度和产业附加值水平有差距,发展中国家可以对发达国家的成熟技术进行引进、消化、吸收、再创新,通过进入附加值比现有水平高且在发达国家已经成熟的产业,实现产业升级。

当然,利用后来者优势只是一种理论上的可能性,并不是所有发展中国家都能利用后来者优势实现快速发展。

第二次世界大战以后,有13个经济体利用后来者优势实现了年均7%甚至更高、持续25年甚至更长时间的经济增长,大幅缩短了与发达国家的差距。改革开放后的中国是这13个经济体中表现最为抢眼的一个,也是赶超速度最快的一个。

所以,

“ 我认为,改革开放以后我国经济能够实现高速增长,最主要的原因是,中国充分利用了后来者优势。为什么在改革开放前我国没能利用后来者优势?最主要的是思路决定出路的问题。”

  为什么中国转型取得成功

  而同期其他国家转型失败

如认为市场化改革是造成1978年前后中国经济差异的主要原因,为什么上世纪八十年代、九十年代绝大多数社会主义国家都在转型,其他社会性质的很多发展中国家也在进行与中国相似的、由计划经济或政府主导的经济向市场经济转型,他们是危机不断,与发达国家的差距越来越大,而我们是稳定快速地发展?

“ 上世纪八十年代、九十年代,这些社会主义国家和其他社会性质的发展中国家开始转型,当时认为,这些国家在转型前经济效益不好是因为政府对市场干预太多,没有建立与发达国家一样完善的现代市场经济体系。”

当时国际学术界的主流观点认为,实现经济转型必须实施“休克疗法”,按照“华盛顿共识”的主张,把政府的干预全部取消,推行私有化、市场化、自由化。

目标虽好,但这样的转型思路忽视了原体制中的政府干预是为了保护和补贴不具备比较优势的重工业,如取消保护补贴,结果必然是缺乏自生能力的企业的破产倒闭,造成大量失业,短期内对社会和政治稳定带来巨大冲击。

而且,重工业中有不少产业和国防安全有关,即使私有化,国家也不能放弃,必须继续给予保护补贴,而私人企业主要求政府提供保护补贴的积极性比国有企业更高。寻租、腐败严重,效率反而更低。

中国经济为什么能够维持稳定并快速发展?

“ 我们推行的是“老人老办法,新人新办法”,对于资本密集、规模大、与就业和国家安全有关的产业,在转型期间继续给予必要的保护补贴,以维持经济稳定;对过去受到抑制的、劳动密集型的,符合中国比较优势的产业,放开准入,积极招商引资,并以务实的方式设立工业园、加工出口区等,将其变成竞争优势。”

新的符合比较优势的产业迅速发展,资本快速积累,比较优势发生变化,原来违反比较优势的产业,变成了我国的比较优势,企业由缺乏自生能力变成有了自生能力,保护补贴由“雪中送炭”变成“锦上添花”,可以而且应该给予取消,才能根除在渐进双轨改革进程中存在的市场扭曲和不当干预所导致的腐败滋生、收入差距拉大等问题,并使我国完成从双轨制到完善的市场制度的过渡。

上世纪八十年代和九十年代,西方主流经济理论认为我国采取的渐进双轨制是最糟糕的转型方式,主张一次性消除政府干预。中国改革开放的实践证明,务实的渐进双轨制是我国维持经济稳定和高速发展的重要原因。

  总结中国改革开放40年的经验

  对现代经济学有何意义

二战后,很多发展中国家摆脱殖民地和半殖民地的地位,致力于追求自己国家的工业化、现代化,但成功的经济体非常少。二战后至今,在近200个发展中经济体中,只有两个经济体从低收入进入高收入,一个是中国台湾,另一个是韩国。2025年,中国大陆很可能成为二战后第三个从低收入进入高收入的经济体。

通过比较二战后少数几个成功和绝大多数不成功的经济体,我发现,迄今还没有一个发展中经济体,按照西方主流理论来制定政策而取得成功,而少数几个成功经济体的共同特点是:其政策在推行时,从当时主流理论来看是错误的。

比如,上世纪五十年代、六十年代,所有的发展中国家都在追求国家的现代化、工业化,当时主流的理论是结构主义,认为发展中国家要实现这个目标,应该推行进口替代战略,以政府主导来配置资源,发展现代化的资本密集型大产业,推行这种战略的经济体都未能取得成功。

少数成功的东亚经济体,却是从传统的劳动密集型小规模产业开始,推行出口导向而不是进口替代战略,当时这种发展方式被认为是错误的。

上世纪八十年代和九十年代,所有的社会主义和非社会主义国家都从政府主导的发展方式转向市场经济,当时的主流理论是新自由主义,倡导“华盛顿共识”,主张采用“休克疗法”,一次性消除各种政府干预扭曲,以建立完善的市场经济体系。按照这个方式来转型的国家,遭遇的是经济崩溃、停滞、危机不断,而少数几个经济体像中国、越南、柬埔寨取得快速发展,采用的却是双轨渐进的改革模式。为什么是这样呢?

“ 因为主流理论来自于发达国家经验的总结,以发达国家的条件作为理论的前提,由于发展中国家与发达国家条件不同,照搬来自于发达国家的主流理论,发展中国家必然遇到问题。”

从经济学的角度看,我们现在采用的理论都是从发达国家有什么来看发展中国家缺什么,比如结构主义,或者看发达国家哪些方面做得好,就让发展中国家照搬,比如新自由主义。

发达国家的市场经济确实比较完善,由于发展中国家的政府对市场有很多干预,就主张发展中国家采用发达国家的制度安排,实际上,这样的理论忽略了重要一点,就是没有看到发展中国家与发达国家条件的差异性。

这是2012年我从世界银行回来以后,开始提倡新结构经济学的一个原因,它与过去主流经济学有很大的差异,是总结于中国自己成败的经验,也是总结于二战后发展中国家和经济体成败的经验。

这样的一个理论来自于发展中国家,自觉地把发展中国家的条件作为出发点,能够较好地解释中国为什么成功,哪些方面存在不足,未来如何发展。同时,这样的理论对其他发展中国家也具有重要的参考借鉴价值。

我认为,只要沿着改革开放的道路继续深化,中国在21世纪将变成最大的经济体,发生在中国的经济现象将是最重要的世界经济现象。世界的经济中心历来是经济学理论的创新中心,著名的经济学家多出于此,所以,21世纪当中国变成世界经济中心时,世界著名经济学家就将大多来自于中国。作为发展中国家和转型中的国家,中国与其他的发展中、转型中国家,条件是比较相似的,我们提出的理论将能比来自于发达国家的理论更能帮助其他发展中国家实现工业化现代化。

Commentary : How to commemorate August 15th?

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

August 15th is a day that is worthwhile to commemorate because it was on that day in 1945 when the Japanese invaders surrendered.

Japanese invaders invaded China on 1931 after they occupied northeast China. Under Japanese occupation, all the Chinese must learn Japanese at that time.  Those who could not speak Chinese often faced being killed.  But if you could speak a little bit Japanese, sometimes you could survive.

The 14 years Japanese occupation almost changed the Chinese characteristics into being more obedient and tolerant.  That was a humiliation and disgrace, let alone experiencing all kinds of difficulties and hardship.

But on August 15th after 14 years of struggle, Japanese surrendered and China regained its dignity.

Today we commemorate this day not to ask the Japanese to compensate this or that, but to safeguard the peace we gained.  We should not let history repeat but open a new chapter to cooperate and safeguard the peaceful development environment.

As two important countries and neighbors, China and Japan should cooperate because the two sides are mutually complementary. China has vast land and huge population while Japan has high tech and more experience in development.  Japan can have good market if it has good relations with China.

If these two countries enjoy good relations, it will be conducive to the whole Asia pacific regions because they are the two strong countries.

To commemorate this day, we should try our best to safeguard the peace and develop further our economic, social, political and environmental development.

This year also marks 40th anniversary of normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan.  May our friendship and good neighborly relationship forever.

时评:莫忘历史 捍卫和平与发展

北欧绿色邮报网时评   陈雪霏

今天是8月15日。1945年8月15日,日本投降,结束对中国的侵略战争。这是一个值得纪念的日子。因为它意味着战争的结束,和平的开始。

日本对中国的侵略历经十四年,中国人在被奴役的情况下生活了十四年。这对很多人来是非常不光彩的事情,非常痛苦的事情也是非常耻辱的事情。

但是,今天,我们纪念它,并不是说要日本人给我们还债,而是说,我们要珍惜和平的环境,我们作为亚洲的两个大国和邻国,应该保持睦邻友好的关系。

今年也是中日建交40周年。我们一定要牢记历史,不要让不堪回首的历史重演,同时,展望未来,要努力为创造和平环境而努力奋斗。

无论是中国还是日本,还是其他国家,都只有在和平的环境中才能得到生存和发展。中国和日本之间尤其具有互补性。中国地大物博,有发展空间,有需求,日本科技发达,两国合作一定会互利共赢的。

希望中日之间能够在和平友好和互利共赢的道路上越走越好。

Criminal gangs suspected to be behind the arson in Gothenburg’s region

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

STOCKHOLM, Aug. 15(Greenpost) —  Criminal gangs were suspected to be behind the moped arson in Gothenburg’s region in west coast area of Sweden,  according to the report from Swedish Dagens Nyheter or Daily News.

Two young suspects  have been arrested. They are 16 years old and 21 years old respectively.

The police said they thought the arson was against the police campaign in the area during the summer to have arrested a few people.  It was suspected as a revenge for the police  action.  Although it was not directly and closely connected,  people still couldnt help thinking of the Husby arson in 2013 in suburbs of Stockholm.

Another thought was that it was also a pattern from the previous years that gangsters set fire on cars or assault schools just before the new semester of the schools.

But witness said that it happened so quickly that at 9 o’clock in the evening, suddenly a few dark masked people with dark clothes came and poured gasoline into the cars and ignited the cars. Suddenly the cars were burned with fires shooting into the sky.

Police found that about 20 places saw this kind of incidents where cars were burned and the person who did it had run away.

A total of 80 cars were burned down and about 20 were damaged. Those damaged can get compensation from insurance if the owner can identify their car.

Prime Minister Stephan Löfvin and Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson have been to Frolunda.

Lofvin vows to strengthen punishment regulations and consolidate the police force.   The punishment for murder violence can be as high as six years imprisonment.

Police said the crime is similar to previous years violence which happened before new semester started.

The gangsters set fire and ran away with moped quickly.  Police said they actually detained a few more for questioning.

The main areas which suffered are Frolunda and Hjallbo, Tynnered. In the Trollhattan where cars are produced also found a suspect.

The police suspected that this was an organized crime, coordinated by a group of people which at least included 20 people.

Meanwhile,various parties used facebook to send out messages and paid the social media to do the communication job.