Category Archives: Opinion

Opinion: Trump government withdrawal from International circles means its not that competent

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

American fall started in 2003 when it invaded Iraq. It was a mistake to do that. But because Bush administration made a wrong estimation of the situation and took unilateral action to send troops there.

Thus, even if UN Nuclear Inspection Team led by Swedish Top Diplomat Hans Blix reported several times to the United Nations to say that they hadn’t found weapons of mass destruction, Bush still ordered American Army to enter Iraq.

Later through interrogation of prisoners, they found what Blix said was true, almost the only one who told the truth.

Since then, many countries and many people lost their confidence in America. Typically New Zealand was a country that really disagreed with America. Australia and Britain were allies to America because they share greater part of bilateral trade. But more countries and people held that American action was not on behalf of the UN, but only for revenge. Such action was not welcomed by Iraq, nor international community.

In ancient Chinese military book, it said that if you sent troops to far away battle field, you were doomed to failure. It is suitable for the case of Iraq war.

It is easy to go into a war, but it is not easy to withdraw from a war. Thus, while it killed a lot of Iraqis, it also killed a lot of Americans. When I went to America in 2002 in Huston, I saw a lot of men in wheelchairs. I admired that the buses had a function to lower down for the wheelchair, but I also felt that the Americans participated too many wars. Think of it, after the Cold War, it fought the first Gulf War in 1991, and since then always sent out troups outside. It fought a war in Yugoslavia in 1999 and splitted it into six countries. In 1998, US led by Clinton bombed Afghanistan, Sudan. In 1999, American Embassies in Tanzania and Kenya were attacked by terrorists suicide car bomb.

Then in 2001, Bin Laden, a friend of the US who was hired by CIA to train terrorists to deal with Taliban. But when Clinton bombed Afghanistan, Bin Laden turned away his gun towards the twin towers. With considerate plot, the twin towers were attacked and burned down. Why such a durable tower burned down so quickly? Some said because it was metal, if it were soil or stone, maybe it wouldn’t fall so quickly.

And then Bush took the revenge of this on Iraq. Thus it cost a lot of resources for America.

After the Iraq war, the work began to be peaceful for sometime. China joined the WTO and economic growth surged. China’s manufacturing industries experienced fast development due to the western order. Meanwhile, more importantly China’s real estate industry saw a very rapid development. China cancelled the public supply of housing to civil servants. Instead, everybody can or must buy their own apartments. Some people not just bought one, but two, one for his own living and the other for renting out.

There was a boom in real estate sector. The price of the real estate escalated every day.

In the west, people invented the method of paying instalment. That means one can consume first and pay later. This became an impetus for consumption.

In Iceland it were as if people could only borrow money, but there was not need to pay back. Thus everybody borrowed money and consumed first. Finally in 2008, a stock market crash happened.

At that time, many people thought China should not hug the US so tightly. China bought a lot of American debt. But China felt it couldn’t do that because they still could earn money and if China really separated from America, what would happen? No one knows.

Thus, China didn’t sell its America bonds but began to buy bonds from other countries. However, due to the huge quantity of the US, the trend was not turning back, but going on to see more interdependence between the two countries.

About ten years ago, Swedish economists said it was abnormal that a developing China supporting a developed America. But China felt it was in a dillema. If it sold all the American bonds, it was almost like declaring a war against America. So some people said lets use the bonds to buy peace with America.

If China doesn’t sell, then some Americans even talked some nasty things such as never paying back. China didn’t care much about current win or lose as long as everything can go on. The more the US buys, the more jobs China can provide.

China indeed accumulated a lot of skilled workers throughout the years.

America lost its manufacturing and mainly relied on its financial market. Even economic Nobel laureate Paul Krugman sighed that best people went to the Wall Street and in the end the crisis was so tremendous.

In 1990s, there were such sayings in China. It said there were two ladies. One was a Chinese and one was an American. The Chinese woman said she dared not to spend money because she had to save every penny to buy an apartment for her son. The American woman said she had bought an apartment for her son, but she might not be able to pay it all until her death.

This showed different consumption concept and Chinese are good at saving while the Americans spent as much as they had.

While economic problems were rampning, attacks against Kaddafi took place and this Northern African country became kaotic leaving a lot of refugees coming out to Europe.

During Aobama time, America already decided to withdrew troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. That was right.

When Trump came to power, he told Americans that he would make America greater. It sounded good for Americans. But if it is on the sacrifice of other countries interest, it would not be good. It sounded very selfish.

In order to fight the trade war, Trump said America withdrew from the WTO. This paved the way for America to take unilateral action. Now they understood the dillema.

In fact, American action shows that it doesn’t have the capacity to contribute more to the world. On the contrary, America cannot tolerate that Chinese company Huawei could be better than others. Just because Trump administration took a method that could hit so hard against Huawei.

Huawei’s boss Ren Zhengfei said Huawei had good relations with American companies. But now it was American government who ordered companies not to supply service or spare parts to Huawei.

Isn’t this also a way to disturb the market economy? Is American economy really market economy?

Ren Zhengfei, Huawei’s Boss, a great entrepreneur

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

Huawei’s founder and president Ren Zhengfei is a great entrepreneur who has great vision. Compared with Trump, an entrepreneur President, Ren is greater.

Why? Because Trump house arrested Ren’s daughter. Trump was a businessman and he thinks always in economic terms. He promised he would make America greater. But what he did actually is not very good for America.

Why did America become downward? This was because of the Iraq War. If America was patient a little bit and did not invade Iraq, America would have been a great country. But due to its frequent engagement of war and conflict, it made America cost too much.

In some ways Trump was right because they don’t want to shoulder more responsibilities on the one hand and now it is obvious that he wants to slow down China’s speed of modernisation.

Facing such situation, Ren Zhengfei now faced the media. He said Huawei is in its best time thanks to American government’s pressure because all the staff are working hard now.

Without American pressure, many staff were satisfied with their situation and didn’t work as hard. So it turned out to be a good thing.

Talking about his daughter Meng Wanzhou, he said she was house arrested meaning that she can only stay in her home and her house was surrounded by the guards and she couldn’t go to other places except daily necessities.

Ren said his daughter said that she would use the time to study more and get a PhD in the house arrest situation.

Famous South African late leader Nelson Mandela studied in the prison and got a degree in economics from Great Britain.

It is very interesting to study Huawei. In fact, Huawei was established in Shenzhen, but it quickly developed abroad. From very earlier stage, it began to hire retired people for example from Ericcson, from many other western companies.

It paid greater attention to development in western countries. Thus it developed so well because its management was a good combination of east and western thinking.

Ren pointed out that China must respect teachers and raise more young talented people so that we have more young talented ones to continue to work.

He made it clear that it was the American politicians who put pressure on Huawei, but not the American companies. He stressed that he would love to continue to cooperate with western companies.

Many people think the Trump administration should not take unilateral action and should put the US China trade dispute into the WTO mechanism.

Video2: The Second Belt and Road Forum in Stockholm Attracts more People

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

STOCKHOLM, May 28(Greenpost International) — The Second Belt and Road Forum in Stockholm was held in Stockholm Chinese Cultural Center on May 22.

Nearly 100 participants including 32 diplomats from various embassies and international organisations attended the forum organized by BRIX.

Lars Aspling says China plays an important role in African development

Lars Aspling, member of BRIX said China has experienced the largest migration in the world. China’s high speed trains connect more than 80 percent of the population.

Hussein Askary Board member of BRIX speaks about China and Africa

Lars Aspling talks about European countries and BRI.

Norwegian Former Parliament Member Thore Vestby talks about his view on China and BRI.

Family Reunion Banquet

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

Beijing, March 3(Greenpost)—The reason I wrote about my family banquet is that I like to tell people like my husband about life in Beijing and life in China. I don’t know if people can get to know a little bit about Chinese life through an ordinary family reunion.

On March 2,  I arrived in Beijing International Airport with CA 932 taking off from Frankfurt Airport in Germany. On the airplane I watched four films, one is played by Mr. Beans and Emma Thomson, the second is the film directed by Jia Zhangke, played by Liao Fan and Zhao Tao, called Jianghu Ernyu, Daughter and Son in the society. Society in China means Jianghu, that refers to the life outside the political system or institutions. They are mostly self employed or unemployed or employed or exploited in the society. Or they are related to gangs or criminals life.  The story is about the love between this young man and a young woman who are dealing with recreational business such as dancing hall or gambling. But this woman saved the life of the man by using a gun to threat other gangsters. She was sentenced to five years imprisonment.  She showed that she really loved the man. But the man was ashamed of his failure, yet still wanted to have his own dignity. Thus, though they are criminals, they are respected or got a lot of  sympathy by the audience. Another  film is I am Not the God of Medicine about cancer patients getting cheaper Indian medicine and the last one was a film directed and played by Jiang Wen about event in the 1930s, a chaotic China which was invaded by Japanese. With such a big harvest of films in my mind, I arrived in Beijing and saw the sun smiling through the smog.

I thought it were my brother Minsheng who would pick me up, but instead it was Yuee and Fengzhong who are my sister and brother in law waiting for me at the exit.

It was always a little bit hesitating to look for the car parking place. With the direction of the staff at the parking place, we found the car finally.

It took about an hour to arrive at World Trade Center in Beijing. Then I called the Media Center in Meidiya at Fuxing Road 11. They said my press pass is done. So Fengzhong drove us there and I picked up the pass first and then we drove  home. By the time we arrived home, it was four o’clock. Then my young brother Minsheng who is an engineer also arrived home. He said he would invite us to have a family reunion or family banquet in the evening.

So he went to Tianjin, the second largest city of China to have an important meeting in the morning and then immediately drove back to Beijing for two hours right after the meeting. Although my mother has prepared a lunch for us, we decided to eat together in the evening.

Then Tingting who is my young sister’s daughter or my niece said she would like to buy some clothes for her next week piano playing at the school concert. She will play Jasmine flower. Minsheng drove them to the shop and then came back and then bought a card for my Huanwei mobile phone. While waiting for my father who went out to dance in Purple Bamboo park since morning, I slept for about an hour. By about six in the evening, my father still hasn’t come back. Minsheng decided to drive me out and picked up Yuee and Tingting from the shop near Shuangjing and drive us all to the restaurant Guolin near his home.

Purple Bamboo Park is located in Haidian district. When I studied in Renmin University 30 years ago, I often went there to exercise my English at the English corner there.

After we arrived at the restaurant, Minsheng went to pick up his mother-in-law and son. Then Minsheng’s wife Yang Di came in. She is also reporting the National People’s Congress this year. So we might have something to share. This time I decided what to eat and make the order of the dinner. I ordered a lot of vegetables such as the jiucai or grass lök , fried eggplants, mutton carrot soup, beef, fish and dumplings. When Minsheng’s son Yanxi arrived, I gave him the guitar which was my daughter Annie’s when she was small. Yanxi was so happy that he took the guitar and ran around in the restaurant. I patiently waited for him to come back because the more I chase him, the more he would like to run away. I saw a lot of families eating around the tables in the restaurant.  Yanxi saw me stop chasing him, he also calmed down and came back to our table.

Then my parents also arrived with Fengzhong’s car, a BMW bought by my sister.

When all the other members sat down, Yang Di was still busy receiving the telephone call.  Yuee ordered a bottle of orange juice while Minsheng ordered a jar of majs juice. My father got a bottle of beer. Here there is no leader speech, but when the four year old Yanxi saw my father to raise the beer cup, he said every one cheer up! All can’t help laughing and were cheered up by the little boy.

Then Yanxi began to sing a song and then recite a poem and tell another two stories such as the monkey and the crocodile and the father and the dog with the water melon.

My father is 84 years old and my nephew is 4 years old.  Minsheng said anyway today is the 25th day of the first month of the year of pig, it means we are still celebrating the Chinese New Year. Then my father said today is also Zhao Chunzhi’s birthday. I remarked that my father really got a good memory. Yuee said “Did you know who is Zhao Chunzhi?” I explained to Minsheng’s mother in law that Zhao Chunzhi is my step mother or my elder sister’s mother.

“That was your ex wife!” said  Minsheng’s mother in law.  Then my father explained his history again. He got married at the age of 15 and his wife Zhao Chunzhi was 18. When she was 32, she got menagitis or inflammation in the brain. She was carried to the hospital after four hours of walk. But she died after a couple of hours rescue leaving four children behind. My big sister was 11 years old, big brother 8, second brother 5 and the second sister was 4 months old. Later my second sister was given to a muslim family and we never met again. Then came my mother to Chen’s family and before I was born, there was a boy who survived just for two months. Then I was born and followed by my young sister and young brother.

My father often mentioned her especially during spring festival when we all gathered together. Now I understood that her birthday is within the New Year, maybe that is why. Maybe also because a man can also remember his first love forever. It is not just woman who missed her first husband. Man can miss his first wife too.

My father is a great father. It was not only because he fathered eight children, but also because he and my mother together raised these six children so that they all grew up and formed their own family. My two brothers didn’t get the chance to go to university due to the cultural revolution, but they managed their family and life reasonably. My big sister studied at medical school and became a gynaecologist later. I got a MA and became a journalist. My young sister studied intellectual property law and got a MA in law and got a job under the State Council. We both studied at Renmin University which is one of the most famous universities in China. My brother in law works in Foreign Affairs, my brother studied at Petroleum University and got a MA. Later he became an engineer in chemical engineering construction. He shouldered the responsibilities in projects.  His wife now is also a journalist and editor in People’s Daily Online where I used to write for in English.

My father said it is worthwhile mentioning that your three families have some good results. First Tingting is like an adult sitting together with all of us. Then Annie who is 12 years old can speak some Chinese with grand mother or mormor. My husband called before I arrived in my sister’s home. Then he let Annie talk with mormor or laolao.

“ IS Chen Xuefei there?” Annie asked in Chinese.

“Who is Chen Xuefei?” My mother asked.

“That is my mother.” Answered Annie.

“I am your Laolao, can you say hello Laolao?” taught my mother.

“Hello Laolao, Byebye, Zaijian.” Said Annie.

Although simply just two sentences, my mother felt she was communicating and these words spread to my fathers ears, he became even happier and spread this message immediately to everyone he met.

“She can speak Chinese over the phone and call us from Sweden. The meaning is important! That means our family stretched into the Nordic world. ” My father said. My father is always insightful and he had a vision. He studied confucius books and could recite them a lot. His life was clear and his philosophy or principle are all based on the four books of ancient Chinese. He has his standard on what it means to be a gentleman.

Then he said the little Yanxi made him happier because he dared to express himself in front of people. He is not shy and he speaks very seriously. He said if you all sing together with me, then I feel I cannot sing myself. That means you shouldn’t disturb me, only with my own concentration, I can remember better.

Both my father and mother said thanks to Yanxi’s mormor or grandmother praising her for taking good care of Yanxi. But Yanxi’s mormor is also modest and said the boy is just good, his parants are good and his grandparents are also good.

My father asked me if Jan and Annie are happy to see me coming to Beijing. I said not at all. This was a negotiation and long term planning result. I have proposed this half a year ago and said this is an important event in China and I must go. But they don’t like me to leave. Right before I left, Annie got a fever and cough a lot. We had to cancel a compromised booking of skiing and I hope by Monday, Annie can fully recover so that she can go to school. Anytime when I felt I neglected Annie, she would be sick or when she became sick, I realized that was due to my negligence. I felt so sorry about it because when I was busy I could forget her for two days. And then she would catch a cold.

My father said if only you hadn’t leave China Radio International and continued to work there. I said I am still working for them from time to time. My heart is still with them, but I have to make a living by working a lot myself. For important events I still reported to CRI which has a lot of good colleagues of mine.

I feel glad to have such a family reunion and we didn’t have leftovers this time. It is a pity that my big brothers and sisters couldn’t join us this time, but hopefully I will find time to meet them later too.

Coming home, I immediately had a good sleep with a lot of sweat, but write this story in the morning when I wake up.

ÄR KINAS NYA SIDENVÄG EN SKULDFÄLLA? Dags att skilja fakta från fantasi!

Av   Hussein Askary *

STOCKHOLM, Feb.9(Greenpost)–Under 2018 riktades en störtflod av kritik mot Kinas Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), den stora satsningen på ”nya sidenvägar” som ska underlätta förbindelserna inom och mellan Eurasien och Afrika med hjälp av modern infrastruktur, som järnvägar, motorvägar, hamnar, flygplatser, kraftverk, dammar, kanaler och telekommunikationsnätverk. BRI har redan omskapat de internationella ekonomiska förbindelserna i synnerhet i den s.k. utvecklingssektorn och sätter fart på den ekonomiska utvecklingen och fattigdomsbekämpningen i många länder runt om världen med en kraft som inte går att hejda.

Misstänksamhet och kritik mot Kina från nyhetsmedier och politiska krafter i väst är inget nytt, men nu kläs den i andra ord. BRI framställs som ett sätt att lura utvecklingsländer att skuldsätta sig genom stora infrastrukturprojekt för att Kina ska kunna dra politiska och strategiska fördelar, framför allt när dessa länder sedan inte kan betala tillbaka lånen de fått från Kina.

Detta låter ju inte alltför långsökt, med tanke på den skurkroll som kineser, ryssar och andra icke-europeiska regelmässigt tilldelas i väst, inte bara i James Bond-filmer. Vi förväntas inte heller granska ”fakta” som vi blir serverade av etablerade experter och nyhetsmedier, som inte sällan på ett eller annat sätt är kopplade till eller till och med avlönade av staten.

Och varifrån kommer kritiken? Den kommer oftast inte från experter på ekonomi i USA eller Europa, utan från säkerhetsexperter och geopolitiska analytiker som har liten eller ingen kunskap om ekonomi.

Debtbook Diplomacy, ”skuldfälla-diplomati”[1], lanserades som begrepp i en rapport beställd av USA:s utrikesdepartement, som kom ut i maj 2018. Den rapporten användes sedan av amerikanska UD för att ringa i alla varningsklockor i hela världen om vilka konsekvenser Kinas BRI kunde få. Etablerade nyhetsmedier rapporterade vad rapporten hade ”kommit fram till” som om det var fakta. Men rapportförfattaren, en ung akademiker vid namn Sam Parker, som samma år hade avlagt sin magisterexamen på Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs vid Harvard Kennedy School, saknade kända ekonomiska meriter och hade inte heller publicerat någonting om ekonomin vare sig i Kina eller något annat land. Han kom i stället till Harvard efter att ha tjänstgjort flera år på USA:s departement för inrikes säkerhet![2]

Sri Lanka: Inget ”paradexempel”

Experterna och medierna har aldrig presenterat några egentliga belägg för vad de påstår är Kinas strategiska ”avsikter”. Det som de beskyller Kina för är snarare en projektion på Kina av de europeiska ländernas eget koloniala förflutna, som egentligen inte har någonting med Kinas faktiska historia eller utrikespolitik att göra.

Det enda exemplet på vad man hävdar är den kinesiska modellen, som man hela tiden återkommer till, är hamnen i Hambantota i Sri Lanka. Parker menar att Kinas övertagande av hamnen i Hambantota ska lyftas fram i alla sammanhang som ett ”paradexempel” på hur Kina tänker behandla andra länder. Vilken betydelse denna hamn har för Sri Lankas nu aktuella och framtida utvecklingsplaner bryr man sig inte om. Det enda man säger är att chansen att hamnen skulle generera intäkter ända från början var lika med noll, och att Kina pumpade in pengar i hamnen med den enda avsikten att sedan kunna lägga beslag på den.

Projektet, till en kostnad av sammanlagt 1,1 miljarder dollar, var inte en kinesisk idé, utan en del av den lankesiska regeringens plan för att avlasta den enda större hamnen i landet, Colombo Harbor Port, genom att anlägga en ny hamn och bygga ett industriområde i dess närhet. Den planen gick tillbaka till 2002, långt innan BRI var påtänkt. Att bygga kraftverk och anlägga nya industriområden var ett led i satsningen ”Regaining Sri Lanka”, med tonvikt på att stimulera den ekonomiska aktiviteten i landets södra del.

Arbetet med att anlägga hamnen i Hambantota påbörjades 2008 av China Harbour Engineering Company och Sinohydro Corporation. Projektet finansierades till 85 procent genom ett lån från China Export-Import Bank. Hamnen öppnades formellt för kommersiell trafik 2010, men godshanteringen blev inte den förväntade. De låga intäkterna och betydande finansieringskostnaderna gjorde att hamnmyndigheten i Sri Lanka 2016 tecknade ett avtal med innebörden att det statliga kinesiska holdingbolaget China Merchants Port skulle få leasa 70 procent av hamnen i 99 år och få en 85-procentig ägarandel i hamnen och industriområdet, mot att man förband sig att fortsätta investera i en uppgradering av faciliteterna där. Det kinesiska bolaget skulle investera ytterligare 700-800 miljoner dollar i utvecklingen av hamnområdet. Syftet med avtalet var att lätta på skuldbördan för Sri Lanka.

Kritikerna utgår från att Sri Lanka alltid kommer att förbli ett fattigt land utan industri, modernt jordbruk eller annan modern ekonomisk verksamhet som skulle ställa krav på en modern infrastruktur, som denna hamn. Dessutom nämns det nästan aldrig att merparten av den kommersiella sjöfarten mellan Ostasien och Europa passerar förbi bara 6-9 sjömil söder om Sri Lankas sydkust, och att den lankesiska ekonomin uppenbarligen skulle kunna dra fördel på olika sätt av de enorma handelsvolymer som färdas genom dessa vatten. Hamnanläggningen i Hambantota har alla möjligheter att kunna erbjuda sjöfartsrelaterade tjänster såsom skeppsklarering, omlastning av gods med mera samt har ett utmärkt läge för industrier som kan dra fördel av den direkta tillgängligheten till världsmarknaden.

Ena stunden beskrivs Hambantota som ett meningslöst och dyrt projekt, andra stunden som en betydande strategisk tillgång för det expanderande Kina.

 

Sjöfartsvägar förbi Sri Lanka. När hamnen i Hambantota rycks ur sitt sammanhang får man intrycket att Kina har byggt en hamn på en öde strandremsa mitt ute i ingenstans. Men Hambantota ligger bara 6-9 sjömil från en av de livligast trafikerade kommersiella handelsrutterna i världen.

 

Gav Kina lån till Sri Lanka till ett projekt som var dömt att bli ett affärsmässigt fiasko, bara för att sedan kunna ta hamnen i beslag när lånet förföll till betalning? Absolut inte. Men det är det som Parker vill få oss att tro.

Finns det någon annan rimlig förklaring? I den mån som just detta specifika exempel skulle vara utslag av en allmän trend, så är det att det visar att de internationella finansinstitutionerna och deras allierade ställer sig helt kallsinniga till utvecklingsländers önskan om att ta sig ur fattigdom och ekonomisk underutveckling. Parker skriver själv att Sri Lanka, efter ett förödande, decennielångt inbördeskrig, ”vände sig till Japan, Indien, IMF, Världsbanken och Asiatiska utvecklingsbanken med en förfrågan om finansiering för att anlägga en betydande hamn i det outvecklade Hambantotaområdet, men nekades finansiering på grund av frågetecken kring mänskliga rättigheter och affärsmässig bärkraft.” Kina sa inte nej till Sri Lanka, utan hjälpte till att göra verklighet av ett mål som landet självt hade satt upp.

En viktig ekonomisk poäng som vår tids journalister och ”experter” inte tar hänsyn till, är att infrastrukturens värde inte främst ligger i dess förmåga att generera finansiell avkastning; den avgörande betydelse som infrastruktur har för varje lands utveckling till en modern ekonomi ligger i att den höjer produktiviteten i hela den nationella ekonomin. ”Avkastningen på investeringen” är inte avgifterna som kan tas ut från dem som brukar infrastrukturen ifråga, utan intäkterna som flyter in till de produktiva industri- och jordbruksföretag som drar nytta av denna infrastruktur. Vi ska återkomma till detta.

Fakta i målet

Afrika. Den ”bild” som målas upp i den anti-kinesiska rapporteringen motsägs av fakta. Till exempel framgår det av den väldokumenterade forskning som gjorts av China Africa Research Initiative vid Johns Hopkins-universitetets School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS-CARI)[3], att merparten av de afrikanska skulderna inte är till Kina, utan till västländer och västligt dominerade institutioner som IMF och Världsbanken.

I sin vitbok om mötet i Peking i september 2018 med Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) skriver SAIS-CARI: ”Vi konstaterar att kinesiska lån för närvarande inte är en betydande orsak till skuldsvårigheter i Afrika. Många länder har ändå tagit stora lån från Kina och andra. Nya FOCAC-låneutfästelser kommer sannolikt att ta med Afrikas växande skuldbörda i beräkningen.” Kina lånade enligt vitboken ut 133 miljarder dollar till Afrika under perioden 2000-2016, med ett mycket stort belopp på 30 miljarder dollar 2016, efter FOCAC-mötet i Johannesburg 2015. Många afrikanska länder har fått lån från Kina, men i bara tre fall – Djibouti, Kongo-Kinshasa och Zambia – är Kina den största långivaren. I Kamerun, på fjärde plats vad gäller andelen kinesiska lån i förhållande till den totala utlandsskulden, är andelen kinesiska lån mindre än en tredjedel.

Pakistan. Pakistan är ett land som har suttit fast i en skuldfälla i många år, men det är inte Kina som är fordringsägare utan stater och finansinstitutioner i väst. Och, som vi ska visa nedan, om det är någonting som ska kunna hjälpa Pakistan att ta sig ur denna fälla, så är det samarbetet med Kina om att bygga den kinesisk-pakistanska ekonomiska korridoren, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

I sin Debtbook Diplomacy-rapport, under rubriken ”USA:s intressen på spel”, låter Sam Parker den imperialistiska undertonen i rapporten träda i dagen. Som ”punkt 1” slår Parker fast att ”Kinas expanderande regionala inflytande och tillgång till hamnar i Sydasien och Stilla havet på sikt kan ändra den regionala maktbalansen bort från USA:s effektiva dominans till sjöss”. Värre blir det i punkt 2: ”Kinas lån underminerar USA:s möjligheter att använda sitt eget ekonomiska bistånd till att gynna USA:s säkerhetspolitiska målsättningar. Detta bistånd har gett USA ett kraftfullt medel att främja sina intressen i Pakistan rörande kärnvapensäkerhet och terrorismbekämpning.”

Parker, liksom de flesta i väst med en kritisk inställning till Kina, beskyller Kina för att underminera västvärldens strategiska grepp över världen, genom att försvåra för västvärlden att använda ekonomiskt bistånd och lån för att kontrollera andra länder för strategiska syften. Ett märkligt argument!

Idag är det enskilda stater organiserade i den s.k. Parisklubben (nästan uteslutande västländer) och multilaterala långivare med IMF och internationella storbanker i spetsen som är Pakistans största långivare, inte Kina, enligt Pakistans officiella statistik[4]. 2018 uppgick Pakistans utlandsskuld till drygt 95 miljarder dollar, och skuldåterbetalningar (ränta och amorteringar) beräknas 2022-2023 belöpa sig till 31 miljarder dollar. Under innevarande budgetår kommer Pakistan att betala 4,2 miljarder dollar till dessa huvudsakligen västliga långivare. Skuldtjänsten på lånen till CPEC inleddes 2018, men utgörs av knappt 80 miljoner dollar i amorteringar, enligt uppgifter i den pakistanska dagstidningen The Dawn.

Mot den bakgrunden är det rätt ironiskt att den amerikanske utrikesministern Mike Pompeo, som basar över det departement som beställde Parkers rapport, i juli 2018 varnade IMF angående en förfrågan från den pakistanska regeringen om ett nödlån på 12 miljarder dollar. ”Förstå mig rätt. Vi håller ögonen på IMF”, sa Pompeo i en intervju på CNBC. ”Det finns ingen anledning att IMF-dollar, förknippade med de USA-dollar som är en del av IMF:s långivning, ska gå till att lösa ut kinesiska obligationsinnehavare eller Kina direkt”, sa Pompeo.

IMF, och därmed de västliga långivarna i Parisklubben, har aktivt blandat sig i Pakistans ekonomiska politik och suveränitet genom olika omförhandlingar av skulderna och de lånevillkor som alla IMF-lån är förenade med, med hjälp av mekanismer som Extended Fund Facility. Den senaste faciliteten i Pakistans fall var ett lån 2016 på 6,4 miljarder dollar. Ett villkor var att budgetunderskottet inte fick överstiga 4,2 procent, något som i princip omöjliggör statligt finansierade investeringar i infrastruktur. Ett annat var en nedskalning av Pakistans egna utvecklingsplaner med ca 1,6 miljarder dollar. Följden blir, som överallt annars där IMF och Världsbanken går in med sina s.k. räddningspaket, att skulden växer sig ännu större och ekonomin backar ännu mer, eftersom landet ifråga inte tillåts bygga upp en bas för framtida tillväxt. När nya lån går till att betala gamla skulder så spär det bara på den totala skuldsättningen.

Pakistans växande utlandsskuld är en direkt följd av landets enorma handelsunderskott. Varje år de senaste fem åren har underskottet varit minst 23 miljarder dollar, och det ökar dramatiskt. De viktigaste exportvarorna är textilier och livsmedel (huvudsakligen ris). Pakistan har också haft en fordonsindustri. Livsmedel är känsliga för prisfluktuationer, och textil- och fordonssektorerna är inte längre konkurrenskraftiga på grund av den dåliga energiförsörjningen i landet. Pakistans största importvaror (och orsaken till den negativa handelsbalansen och därav utlandsskulden) är olja, naturgas och raffinerade oljeprodukter (bränsle). Det är där Kinas insats genom CPEC kommer att spela den största rollen eftersom det förutom transportkorridorerna är just på energisidan som Kina koncentrerar sina investeringar, när man bygger den kinesisk-pakistanska ekonomiska korridoren[5].

 

Det står helt klart att om Pakistan, som varje år importerar olja och gas för 13-14 miljarder dollar, ska ha en chans att ta sig ur den ekonomiska krisen och skapa förutsättningar för en framtida blomstrande industrisektor, så är det absolut nödvändigt att man satsar stort på att öka den egna kraftproduktionen. Och det är det som Kina nu hjälper till med. Följande investeringar på energisidan är antingen färdigställda, under byggnad eller under förhandling: kolkraftverk (8.580 MW), vattenkraft (2.700 MW), andra värmekraftverk, däribland gaseldade (825 MW), solkraft (900 MW), vindkraftsparker (350 MW). Den förväntade nya kraftproduktionskapaciteten uppgår till sammanlagt 13.355 MW, att jämföra med Pakistans nuvarande installerade kapacitet på 25.000 MW.

Den sammanlagda kostnaden för denna nya kraftproduktion (inklusive kolutvinning och kraftnät) beräknas till 23-30 miljarder dollar, vilket motsvarar ungefär två års import av olja och gas, och mindre än hälften av det årliga handelsunderskottet.

Men i internationella medier fortsätter man att peka ut Kina som problemet, och det händer att rena falsarier kastas in i medieelden som om de var fakta.

Den pakistanska tidningen The News International basunerade till exempel ut i en rubrik den 29 september 2017, att ”Pakistan ska betala tillbaka 100 mdr dollar till Kina till 2024”.[6] Utan att ge någon förklaring till denna absurda siffra påstod man: ”Till 2024 måste Pakistan betala tillbaka 100 miljarder dollar till Kina, av en total investering på 18,5 miljarder dollar, som Kina i form av banklån har investerat i 19 snabbavkastande projekt huvudsakligen på energiområdet inom ramarna för China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). ”Artikeln återkommer aldrig till detta hårresande påstående och ger ingen förklaring till siffrorna.

I Dagens Industri den 20 augusti 2018 påstod Johan Nylander[7] att: ”Under de tre senaste åren har Pakistan lagt på sig skulder till Kina på runt 270 miljarder dollar.” Nylander hänvisar till ”analyshuset IHS Markit” som sin källa, men där hittar vi inga sådana siffror[8]. Siffran 270 miljarder dollar står heller ingenstans att finna eftersom Pakistans samlade skuld till hela världen är mindre än 100 miljarder dollar. Men läsaren av DI förväntas bara svälja dessa uppgifter eftersom de kommer från en av de etablerade nyhetsmedierna.

Produktiva krediter kontra skulder

Sambandet mellan satsningar på avancerad infrastruktur och höjd produktivitet i hela ekonomin har påvisats allra tydligast av studier som gjorts på USA:s egen ekonomi.

I alla frågor som rör långivning är den viktigaste frågan som måste ställas inte hur lånevillkoren ser ut (räntesatser, betalningsfria perioder eller löptider) utan vad lånet ska användas till. Det handlar om skillnaden mellan ”pengar” och ”krediter”. Skillnaden ligger i vad som är ändamålet med utgivningen av nya pengar resp. krediter. Man ser det tydligt i den nu rådande, katastrofala penning- och finanspolitiken i det trans-atlantiska området.

Centralbankerna i USA, EU och Japan, ”the big three”, har sedan slutet av 2008 skapat i runda slängar 13-14 biljoner dollar i nya pengar (genom det som kallas ”kvantitativa lättnader”), och har därutöver pumpat in likviditet i bankerna i form av tillfälliga lån motsvarande ytterligare många biljoner dollar. Men ingenting av dessa pengar – varken pengar i omlopp eller i elektronisk form – har getts ut för något ekonomiskt syfte, inte heller för handel. De har getts ut enkom för ett finansiellt syfte: att förse dessa länders storbanker med tillräckligt mycket kapital och likviditet för att de ska kunna hålla näsan ovanför vattenytan trots massiva förluster och osäkra fordringar.

Krediter däremot, som ges ut av stater, är en skuld som staten ifråga tar på sig, och som ”betalas tillbaka” med ”ränta” genom den generellt höjda produktivitet som den kommande generationen kommer att åtnjuta. Kort sagt, det är den höjda framtida produktiviteten som är säkerheten för den utgivna krediten.

Total faktorproduktivitet

Det finns ett starkt samband mellan kreditgivning till nya infrastrukturprojekt och den så kallade totala faktorproduktiviteten. Den senare parametern är ett försök att mäta den andel av den ekonomiska tillväxten som beror på tekniska framsteg. Den högsta årliga produktivitetstillväxten i USA inföll, med detta mått mätt, under de perioder då man gjorde de största investeringarna i infrastruktur som byggde på ny teknik – ny transportteknik för vägbyggen, kanaler, järnvägar och så småningom rymdfärder, kraftproduktionsteknik, vattenbyggnadsteknik, kommunikationsteknik. Allra snabbast ökade den totala faktorproduktiviteten under 1930-talet, med 3,3 procent årligen, tack vare president Franklin D. Roosevelts New Deal och Four Corners-programmet, med sina stora infrastruktursatsningar. Detta enligt en rapport från U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research från 2013. Stapeldiagrammet visar total faktorproduktivitet i USA-ekonomin (årlig tillväxt per decennium)

Ett i tiden mera närliggande exempel på detta nära samband är Kinas makalösa ekonomiska tillväxt de senaste 20 åren. En utomordentligt hög investeringstakt i vattenregleringar, kärnkraftsutbyggnad och på andra tekniskt avancerade infrastrukturområden – att Kina efter en tioårig satsning plötsligt hade fler kilometer höghastighets- och magnetsvävarräls än resten av världens länder tillsammans är ett i mängden av hyllade exempel – har gett mycket höga tillväxttakter i total faktorproduktivitet och i ekonomisk tillväxt och framåtskridande över huvud taget. Sedan 2008 har Kinas största statliga banker också skapat krediter motsvarande ca 12-13 biljoner dollar, lika mycket som de ovan nämnda västerländska bankerna. Skillnaden är att Kina förvandlade dessa krediter till realekonomiska värden och en högre produktivitet och välfärd för sin befolkning.

Hur Kina har hanterat det egna landets ekonomiska utveckling smittar av sig på landets förbindelser med andra länder.

Bryter med västländernas koloniala attityd

Det är påfallande hur vanligt det är att politiker, akademiker och skribenter i Europa och USA talar till och om utvecklingsländerna och deras representanter i en nedlåtande ton, som om de var barn som inte kan tala för sig själva. Det skvallrar om hur djupt rotad den koloniala attityden, ”den vite mannens börda”, alltjämt är i västvärlden. Afrikaner framställs underförstått, och ibland helt ogenerat, som mindre vetande krakar, som de förslagna kineserna lätt kan lura skjortan av.

I en intervju nyligen på China-Africa Podcast[9] förklarade W. Gyude Moore, tidigare minister för offentliga arbeten i Liberia och andre stabschef åt det landets president, den afrikanska synen på kinesisk hjälp med finansiering, utifrån sin egen erfarenhet av att ha förhandlat med Kina om många infrastrukturprojekt. Han sa:

”När Kina framställs som den här stora, stygga aktören, som är bakslug och överhopar länder med skulder, så tänker man bort nästan all medverkan från ländernas egen sida. Det är nästan som om de afrikanska länderna är naiva och inte begriper vad som händer och Kina slår blå dunster i ögonen på dem. Man nästan infantiliserar afrikaner och afrikanska ledare. … På grund av den begränsade mängd pengar som kommer från internationella finansinstitutioner måste länder som Liberia söka sig åt ett annat håll. … Ett av de få länder som faktiskt är berett att tala med ett land som Liberia, som kanske inte har det bästa kreditryktet, efter att just ha fått lån för nästan 5 miljarder dollar uppsagda, är Kina. … För ett land som Liberia är det helt omöjligt att förlita sig enbart på Världsbanken eller Afrikanska utvecklingsbanken för finansiering av infrastruktur – det går bara inte.”

Som ett förtydligande av skillnaden mellan skuldsättning och investeringar i framtiden, tillade Moore: ”Om länderna ska kunna betala tillbaka sina skulder måste deras ekonomier ha kommit dithän att de faktiskt genererar intäkter, och utan infrastruktur går det inte. Det är som med hönan och ägget.”

Moore bemötte användningen av hamnen i Hambantota som exempel på kinesisk finansieringspolitik: ”Alla hänvisar till hamnen i Sri Lanka, men Kina har lånat ut miljardtals med dollar. Att hamnen i Sri Lanka är det enda exemplet som folk kan dra upp, det tycker jag visar att detta Sri Lanka-exempel, detta enstaka fall, inte kan tas för hela sanningen om hur Kina vinner sina partner.”

Industrialiseringstrappan: Vart går USA och Europa?

De farhågor som många känner inför BRI och det nya paradigm som det håller på att skapa i de internationella förbindelserna är obefogade. Det är felaktiga föreställningar om ekonomi och maktförhållanden mellan länder som driver USA och många länder i EU till att inta denna negativa hållning till BRI.

Man kan likna industrialiseringsprocessen vid en smal trappa. Kina och många utvecklingsländer klättrar uppåt i trappan, medan USA och EU är på väg nedåt, mot avindustrialisering. Båda parter kommer till en punkt där de möts öga mot öga mitt i trappan, och spärrar vägen för varandra. Det är här som spänningarna stiger. Det är här som den ena sidan måste bestämma sig för att gå samman med den andra och röra sig åt samma håll, vilket skulle underlätta för båda att röra sig fritt.

Dessutom skulle båda parter vinna på att bredda trappan så att alla får plats, eller, som president Xi säger när han beskriver Kinas utvecklingspolitik, ”göra kakan större”, så att alla kan få sin rättmätiga del, i stället för att kivas om en krympande kaka.

 

* Hussein Askary är styrelseledamot i Belt and Road Executive Group for Sweden (BRIX), www.brixsweden.com

Paul Gallagher och Jason Ross bidrog med material till denna artikel.

Översättning till svenska: Astrid Sandmark

[1] Debtbook Diplomacy, Sam Parker, Gabrielle Chefitz, maj, 2018 https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/debtbook-diplomacy

[2] Om Sam Parker: https://www.belfercenter.org/person/sam-parker

 

[3] China Africa Research Initiative, The School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS-CARI), Johns Hopkins University, augusti 2018: http://www.sais-cari.org/s/Briefing-Paper-1-August-2018-Final.pdf

[4] Den pakistanska centralbankens egen statistik för finansåret 2017-2018: http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/pakdebt.pdf

 

[5] Budgetåret 2017-2018 uppgick Pakistans import till 60,86 miljarder dollar, vilket var 2,6 gånger mer än exporten, som inbringade 23,22 miljarder dollar, med ett rekordstort handelsunderskott på 37,64 miljarder dollar som följd. Importen dominerades återigen av energi (olja och gas), till ett belopp av 14,43 miljarder dollar. Pakistan har lånat från bland annat västerländska banker för att finansiera sina köp av petroleumprodukter på den internationella marknaden. Den 3 augusti 2018 uppgav den pakistanska tidningen Express Tribune att den brittiska Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) skulle ge ett affärslån till Pakistan på 200 miljoner dollar till 4,2 procents ränta för att finansiera import av flytande naturgas. SCB är en av Pakistans största långivare, som enbart 2016-2017 lånade 1,1 miljarder dollar till landet. För att förstå hur viktigt det är för Pakistan att utveckla en egen kraftproduktion, kan man se på följande siffror: Den totala installerade kapaciteten för produktion av elkraft är 25.000 MW (2017) med en genomsnittlig förbrukning på 19.000 MW. Energislagen är: 1. Olja och gas: 14.635 MW (64,2 procent). 2. Vattenkraft: 6.611 MW (29 procent). 3. Kärnkraft: 1.322 MW (5,8 procent).

[6] The News International, 29 september, 2017, “Pakistan to pay back $100 bn to China by 2024”  (https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/233333-Pakistan-to-pay-back-100-bn-to-China-by-2024 ).

[7] “Nya Sidenvägen hotar bli skuldfälla”, Johan Nylander, Dagens Industri, Aug 20, 2018. https://www.di.se/nyheter/nya-sidenvagen-hotar-bli-skuldfalla/

[8]  En av IHS Markits rapporter från 2018 finns här: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/a-difficult-year-ahead-for-pakistan.html

[9] https://chinaafrica-podcast.com/an-insiders-view-of-the-china-africa-debt-trap-debate

Opinion: Britain is a typical example of not knowing what they want

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

Looking at the opposition’s shouting in the parliament and the shaking of head of May,  I asked democracy was just shouting at each other?

I think May was very clear and calm while the opposition was mad.

What does British people really want? It is very hard to say.

I went to Britain and found that people play with python snake or rare species in Africa or other countries in southern hemisphere.  Why? Because Britain is so rich that they don’t know what to do and what to want.  On the other hand, they couldn’t have as much cash as they want, so they have problem of liquidity too.

And that is the problem of capital world. When there is no capital in capital world, there will be problems. People likes to put money just into stocks so that they will feel secure all over their life without working so hard. And that is totally against the law of development.

Thus the solution for Britain is to either return to EU or negotiate with all the individual members.  Then it will be a long process to be normal.

Opinion: Canada should talk with China to find a better solution

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

STOCKHOLM, Jan. 16(Greenpost) — Canada and China should talk and negotiate a better solution for the future.

China and Canada have a lot of common interest and mutual complementary factors.

Both sides should sit down and be cool headed and negotiate a better solution.

It will harm both sides if one escalates conflicts which was neither due to China nor Canada.

Both sides should cool down and talk for a better solution.

 

Åsikter: Svenska som varit i kina förstår kina bättre än dem some var aldrig i kina

Bertil Wallgren – Floby – 11 dagar sedan

Det är enkelt att vara kritisk mot kineserna. En industriman som jobbade i Kina berättade om ett möte där kritik mot systemet framfördes. Svaret blev: Vi har 1400 miljoner människor, vi har inte tid med er demokrati! Gick en gång på kinesiska muren. Det slog mig då hur lite kineserna invaderat andra länder i motsats till oss i Europa, som härjat över hela världen, och även i Kina! Det tycker jag de ska ha en eloge för! Framtiden? Oviss, men Kina är på uppgång ekonomiskt. Militärt är de fortfarande svaga. Deras militärbudget är en tredjedel av USA:s. Även det är värt en en eloge! Demokrati är bäst, men den har sina nackdelar om man har bråttom att förändra! 

Torsten Dilot – Västerås – 11 dagar sedan

Jag instämmer med dig Bertil. Har själv kopplingar till Kina då min fru är från Kina. Vi har varit gifta nästan 20 år nu. Har varit i Kina många gånger och ofta i minst en månad i taget. Jag har både varit i Kina som privatperson och som föreläsare om säkerhetsanalys inom kärnkraften, energi och klimat på bl a Universitet i Shanghai och på CGN (China general Nuclear) i Shenzhen. Vardagslivet är inte alls olikt vårt i Sverige och människor gör sina sysslor på samma sätt som vi och tjänar pengar som vi gör. Samt att de är lyckliga de också. Jag upplever samma frihet i Kina som i Sverige, med den skillnaden att man inte kan bilda politiska partier. Men som du skriver, det bor 1.4 miljarder människor i Kina och det är en annan kultur. Vad är det som säger att vårt styrelsesätt är bäst även för Kina? Jag brukar säga till kompisar och andra att de först ska åka till Kina och vara där i minst en månad och uppleva landet innan de yttrar sig om deras system. Många som har en åsikt om Kina har aldrig varit i landet… Svensk medias skildringar av Kina stämmer inte överens med mina egna upplevelser. Svensk media vinklar som de vill och det är inte ett dugg bättre än öppen censur. (visa mindre)

Hans Starlife – Helsingborg – 11 dagar sedan

Torsten Samma här, är gift med en kinesiska och bott många år bland lokalbefolkningen i Kina. Vardagslivet är inte så olika, nästan friare faktiskt – åtminstone i småstäderna. Folk jobbar på och har samma drömmar som vi. Storpolitiken bryr de sig dock inte om, för den behärskar de ändå inte. Var och en gör det man är bäst på. Min insikt efter att rest runt i både öst och väst, är att så länge man tar seden dit man kommer funkar det utmärkt. Men de flesta som klagar har aldrig varit i länderna de klagar på. (visa mindre)

Torsten Dilot – Västerås – 10 dagar sedan

Just opiumkrigen handlade om bruket av opium och opium som handelsvara. Storbritannien och Frankrike såg opium som en inkomstbringande handelsvara medan kineserna redan då insåg att missbruk av opium var mycket skadligt. Kineserna ville sålunda inte att det skulle handlas med opium. Engelsmännen och fransmännen vann kriget och opium blev en spridd handelsvara… Alla länder har en historia, inte alltid smickrande. Sverige, Tyskland, Ryssland, Kina, ja även USA med flera länder. Viktigt är att tänka på nuläge och inte det som varit. Då skulle vi aldrig kunna acceptera Tyskland t ex Hur ser det ut idag i dessa länder, jo människor lever i ordnade samhällen med ett stort mått av trygghet. Speciellt Kina är ett tryggt samhälle – vi känner oss trygga var helst vi promenerar mitt i natten i Kina. I Sverige tar vi inga nattliga promenader… Trygghet är viktigt! Följer man lagen och tar seden dit man kommer är det inga problem. Acceptans och respekt och kunna lita på varandra är viktiga ingredienser. Ser man på världspolitiken idag anser jag att det är två ledare som sticker ut i positiv mening, den ena är Angela Merkel och den andra är Xi Jinping. Obama var av samma kaliber men annars är det ganska tunt numera..

Analysis: How Chabahar Survived US Sanctions?

By  Shoaib Rahim

STOCKHOLM,  Nov. 28 (Greenpost)–The United States imposed new sanctions, dubbed as toughest ever, on Iran on November 5. However, Afghanistan and India have received certain waivers from these sanctions. The exemptions allow India to continue to develop Chabahar port and construct its related railway link to Afghanistan’s border. Further, both Afghanistan and India would continue to import petroleum products from Iran. The exemption of Chabahar was stated to be related with the economic development, reconstruction assistance and humanitarian relief of Afghanistan. However, there are many reasons beyond Afghanistan factor that made the waivers less of a surprise.

In 2003, India agreed with Iran to make investment and develop Chabahar port in Iran on Gulf of Oman. However, the project was crawling owing to the US sanctions on Iran. In spite of US dissent, India went on to spend $135 million to construct Zaranj- Dilaram highway that links Kabul– Hirat highway with Chabahar port and completed it in 2009. In August 2015, sanctions on Iran were eased while tri- lateral agreement was signed among Afghanistan, India and Iran in May 2016.

The continued, albeit bumpy, progress on Chabahar port is not a surprise given its strategic significance. Chabahar occupies unique geo- political and geo- economic status in the light of regional and global politics. Chabahar competes with Chinese funded Gawadar port on the lines of strategic encirclement theory as well as provides gateway to India to reach Central Asia as part of its competition with China. Despite this, China has remained a strong supporter of the port due to its close political and economic ties with Iran. On the other hand, while US has continued to tighten the noose around Iran, it has had to show flexibility towards the project. This is mainly because these projects have potential to strengthen India geo- economically and geo- politically in line with its strategy to support India vis-à-vis China.

At present, President Trump’s Afghanistan and South Asia strategy announced in August 2017, underscored increased role for India in Afghanistan, which was warmly welcomed by both Kabul and New Delhi. Given the fact that India’s land route access to Afghanistan is barred by Pakistan, it is Chabahar that would provide a gateway to India to reach Afghanistan and ensure its desired economic and development assistance. In turn, Afghanistan would provide India land route access to Central Asia. These interventions align with the maneuvers to increase India’s influence in Central Asia to counter that of China in the region.

An important aspect in the India- US relations is the Russian factor. India has maintained delicate balance in its relations with Russia and the US. Despite close strategic bonding with the US, India has managed to preserve its historical economic, military and diplomatic ties with Russia amid turbulent US- Russia relations. For instance, the pendulum of India’s multi –billion- dollar arms trade with both countries swings either sides in spite of changing political- economic dynamics. Moreover, it was mainly Russia that pushed for the membership of India in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an important regional platform. Therefore, any decision of the US that would restrict economic gains of India might affect India’s presence in current US orbit.

The waiver on oil imports granted to India also revolves around Chabahar. India is one of the top four oil importers world- wide while Iran ranks third on its list of suppliers. Therefore, in response to US pressure to cut oil imports from Iran to Zero by November 4, India made its intentions clear to defy and go against them, almost one month ahead of the deadline. Further, India’s stance to continue to buy oil from Iran at this critical juncture has implications for strengthening relations of the two countries and pave the way for long term partnership, including smooth implementation and operationalization of Chabahar.

Alternatively, India could have moved to other countries to meet its oil demand. However, Iran had already threatened that if India shifted to other countries as a consequence of sanctions on its oil trade, it would lose special privileges at Chabahar port. On the other hand, Afghanistan relies on Iran for transit route and imports including oil. The sanctions would might have disrupted trade and transit tries leaving a struggling Afghan economy in tatters. Hence, the exemption gives the country a sigh of relief.

Here, it is worth mentioning that China has expressed its support and interest in Chabahar from time to time. If Iran is frustrated with India at any stage and consequently engages China in Chabahar, it would severely dent the planned strategic gains of India around the project.

The unique strategic status of Chabahar earns it exemption from the toughest ever sanctions of the US.  However, the remaining sanctions would plague Iran’s economy. Therefore, while the project survives the sanctions, it would be hard for an economically weakened Iran to accelerate the pace and work together with India to fully operationalize the port and reap its economic gains.

Shoaib Rahim (Development Economics 2012) is an Afghan, Macro-economist, University Lecturer, TedX Speaker and Youth Activist. He founded ‘Gaheez – The Rising Afghanistan’, an initiative to engage youth in the development of Afghanistan.

The views expressed here only represents the view of the author.

Commentary: What is the significance of commemorating the end of the First world War?

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

Stockholm, Nov 12. (Greenpost) —  A grand celebration was held in Paris with participation of major first world war countries leaders including Putin, Trump, Merkel and Macron.

Actually at the end of 2014, after holding back of my breath for a year and suddenly I felt relieved. Another year went by without the break of any world war. But someone said in fact modern war is a war without smoke.

For example, that year, Russian economy almost crashed with financial crisis with pressure from the US.

But at least the real gunpower was not used.  I think it has great significance to commemorate the first world war.

Recalling back, one can realize that the reason for the first world war was due to the economic market reason and ignited by the accidents of the assasination of the Austrain King.  Nationalism was very strong at that time and there was no thoughts of   how big loss it will be  one all the countries involved in the war.

Looking back, one can see that the war was faught very barbarianly. It was fought with more weapons and lives.  Human beings lost their ration and they fought just because they belonged to different nation or different ethnic groups. It was very primitive and yet, 60 million lives were taken away.

Thus, after four years they all came to the conclusion that they should stop the war. But one lesson was that France wanted to ask Germany to pay much more.  Namely to cut Germany’s colonies.

The Versais Palace Treaty was unfair not just to Germany, mainly it was to China.  China joined the war and fought together with France and other countries, but in the end, its land in Shandong province was given to Japan. It was unfair.

Later Germany thought the treaty was too harsh on it and that led to hatred to the neighbors and wanted to fight back later.  Thus with leadership of Hitler, extremism permeated in Germany.

This could be a great lesson to draw.

Currently  you have a leader like Trump who likes to use his power and you have a leader who doesn’t care about any pressure, such as Putin.

And some Europeans said irresponsibly that there might be a war in South China Sea.  This is very irresponsible.

Through this commemoration, one should realize that the war is so harmful that it will be detrimental to everyone.

Two lessons should be drawn from the first world war. One is to forgive. Like China forgives Japan and didn’t ask Japanese to compensate so much.

Two,  one should treat every country equally.  And these lessons were drawn after the second world war. That was to build the United Nations.

Many other international organizations have been established.

The current world should learn from the lesson and gave up too much nationalism. Internationalism should be promoted. Simply when anybody thought of war, you must try your best to avoid war. If you don’t want to create a war, you shouldn’t stimulate a war, you shouldn’t put people to test.

China is a peace loving country. I don’t think it will launch a war.  But if you push on it a war,  it is a country who will do all it can do to fight back.

History shows that anyone who fought with the Japanese, win it or not, in the end, it all has been Chinized.

For example, the Mongolians and the Manchurians have all been chinized and they all accepted the Chinese culture in the end. Why? Because Chinese culture has great essence in it. It always gives out the best it has and that is always a wisdom and a virtue. Man can not fight with this kind of behaviour.  It always treats people as brothers and sisters.

Its socialist ideas mean that no matter big or small, any country is equal with others. Thus, countries should also help each other, but not fight with each other.

For example, belt and road initiative is jus the idea of peace and development.

Anyway, one should draw lessons from history and try our best to safeguard the world peace and continue development.

Xuefei Chen Axelsson

Kevin Rudd: China’s Economic Reforms Cannot, Should Not Stop

By Kevin Rudd

Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd. Caixin file photo.
Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd. Caixin file photo.

China has achieved a lot over the last 40 years.

I remember the China of 1978 because in that year I was studying Chinese at Australian National University. The Cultural Revolution had just concluded. Deng Xiaoping had just returned to the leadership.

At university, we began to study Deng Xiaoping’s axioms: “Seek truth from facts,” and “Practice is the only criterion for testing truth.”

After more than a decade of pure ideology, these were welcome sounds to the rest of the world. China, at last, had embarked on a period of reforming its domestic economy based on the fundamental disciplines of price theory. And opening its economy to international markets and raising its own people out of poverty.

By the time I first arrived in this country to work in 1984, it had already been five years since the Third Plenum.

Indeed, the first document I remember reading when I was in the Australian Embassy that year was the Third Plenum of the 12th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in November 1984, on what was then called “urban reform” — taking the principle of price-based reform of Chinese agriculture, and beginning to apply it to the rest of the Chinese economy.

China, from the earliest days, has had to deal with the inherent tension between market prices on the one hand, and state planning on the other.

But by and large, your success of the last 40 years has been based on applying market prices to most sectors, from the agricultural sector, to the manufacturing sector, to the services sector, which of course includes the financial services sector.

There is also a tension between full market prices on the one hand, and the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on the other.

Market prices are about the efficient allocation of resources in the economy, where the principal actors are private firms and individual consumers.

By and large, SOEs have a different social and political purpose.

The truth of the last 40 years is that most of the growth in China’s economy — most of the improvement in people’s living standards, and practically all new jobs which have been created — have been created through Chinese private enterprises.

This is the core lesson of the last 40 years.

The importance of market prices for the future

The discipline of market prices as the efficient allocation mechanism for scarce economic resources is not just an important historical principle.

It must also be a guiding principle for the future.

That is why the decision outlined by China at the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2013 is so important in the eyes of the world.

We all remember what that decision said: “Allow the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation.”

I know enough about Chinese domestic economics and politics to know how complicated that decision must have been in 2013.

That decision reflected the domestic consensus within this country on the best resolution of the tensions between the two traditions alive in modern Chinese economic theory and practice: that is, market prices driving the growth of private firms on the one hand, and state planning driving by the continuing role of SOEs on the other.

Indeed, when we foreigners analyzed the 60 sets of reforms in the 2013 “Decision,” the core guiding principle underpinning all of them was the central importance of market prices.

For China’s future, this is important for the growth of its product and service markets.

For market prices to work in the agricultural sector, the manufacturing sector, or the services sector, there must be strong competition.

And for there to be strong competition, there must be competitive neutrality.

And for there to be competitive neutrality, the same rules should be applied to Chinese private firms and SOEs as apply to foreign firms.

That’s why five of the most critical areas in the decisions of the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee were competition policy reform, SOE reform, foreign trade reform, foreign investment reform, and financial sector reform.

In the West, we call this creating a level playing field through the creation of a set of rules and regulations, so firms can compete equally to produce the best product at the lowest price for the consumer, thereby representing the most efficient allocation of resources and thus eliminating waste.

If we look around the world today, we see the most successful economies over time are usually the most open and competitive economies.

Just as we see around the world, the most poorly performing economies are those most closed and overregulated, creating advantages for one sector or another.

The role of market prices in the financial sector

This same logic also applies to the financial services sector.

For those who save, their interest rates should be driven by market pressures, so they have a proper incentive to save with an attractive rate.

Similarly, some consumers may need credit to purchase essential goods and services for themselves and their family. They should get the best rates and conditions possible on the market.

Just as for individual firms, either public or private, for them to grow in a sustainable fashion, they too need to have access to capital at a competitive rate.

Interest rates applied to individual loans should also price the risk associated with that loan, in order to discourage entrepreneurs from building businesses that do not have a strong market base.

If credit is created for nonmarket reasons, or for political reasons, then structural risks begin to emerge — as nonperforming businesses inevitably produce nonperforming loans; and if there are too many nonperforming loans, they produce structural problems for individual financial institutions, or even more broadly for the financial system as a whole.

Ten years ago, we saw this in the global financial crisis, which started in the United States. Indeed, this is a problem where asset bubbles emerge in any economy.

That is why, for example, China’s current policy of “deleveraging” is important for the long-term stability and prosperity of the Chinese financial system, and the general economy.

Deleveraging is always a painful process in any economy.

And we all agree — the best thing to do to avoid deleveraging problems in the future is to apply market discipline to manage credit supply in the first place.

The continued role of regulation

What I have said today about market prices as a principle in the economy doesn’t mean there is no future role for economic regulation, legislation, or other national policy priorities.

All countries create regulatory and legislative structures that maximize their definition of public goods.

First and foremost, this is to prevent markets from completely spiraling out of control, as happened during the global financial crisis.

That’s why, through the G-20, we agreed on a whole range of financial regulations worldwide, to prevent the risk of future financial crisis.

Of course, there are other reasons to support government legislation and regulation of markets as well.

And that is to make sure governments can create proper public goods: health, education and welfare.

Free markets do not naturally provide these things.

That’s why government must intervene, so that people with lower incomes have equitable access to these critical public goods.

But each time governments intervene in markets, either to regulate those markets, to prevent systemic risk, or to provide for other forms of state intervention to fund and deliver other public goods, there will always be an economic price to pay in terms of the optimization of resources.

That’s why the government should always weigh carefully the net impact on overall economic efficiency when considering each individual decision to intervene in markets.

In China’s case, SOEs can “crowd out” the ability of private firms to sell their goods and services, thereby impacting the efficiency, living standards, and sustainable employment across the general economy.

Furthermore, if administrative decisions do not allow competitive access to finance for private firms to grow their businesses because SOEs have preferential access to capital, then, once again, overall economic efficiency will be affected, and overall living standards will be reduced, just as individual private firms will employ less people.

China’s current economic circumstances

China has made remarkable progress in the past 40 years.

But the international lesson for all of us, who are in the hard business of market reform, is that the process of reform does not stop.

It is a continuing process.

The uncomfortable truth for all of us is that when market reforms stop, often for understandable political reasons, it soon affects economic development, living standards, and sustainable employment.

China’s economic reform blueprint has produced a mixed record of implementation.

It has also faced other economic challenges for its growth as well. This has included the continuing debate in China on the best balance within this country between the rights of private entrepreneurs on the one hand, and the rights of the party and state on the other.

A third factor influencing the growth environment has been China’s deleveraging campaign, which has needed to be implemented for macro financial management reasons.

Then of course there are further factors arising from the emerging U.S.-China trade war.

Nonetheless, the impact of the trade war has been negative on both global and Chinese business sentiment.

And this may also flow to China’s economic growth over time.

For these various reasons, it has been important in the last few weeks to see the series of definitive statements by President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Liu He on the central importance of private firms for long-term sustainable economic growth, employment, and improved living standards.

Chinese private firms will need to have confidence in terms of their future competitive status in relation to Chinese SOEs.

This will have particular implications for the future of China’s domestic finance industry. Not just banks, but also the new array of other delivery platforms for financial services right across the Chinese economy.

China’s economic future will be deeply shaped by micro businesses, becoming small businesses, becoming medium businesses, becoming domestic leaders, becoming global champions — in an open and competitive global market.

China’s economic future will be determined in large part by who the next Alibabas, the next Tencents, or the next Haiers will be.

Of course, that rests on the ability of China’s domestic economy to be served by an efficient financial services industry that delivers financial capital on a competitive basis to individual businesses and consumers.

And then there is a wider question of China becoming a bigger provider of financial services to the region and the world.

That’s where China will need to fully implement the financial industry reforms articulated in the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee.

Ultimately, the question of the future liberalization and convertibility of China’s currency, and the opening of its capital account is a sovereign decision for China itself.

There are both risks and opportunities involved in these large decisions.

In Australia, we did it back in 1983. And by and large, it has worked well, both for our financial services industry, and for our overall economic prosperity.

Nonetheless, each country is different. With different political circumstances. But these questions do ultimately shape the ability of countries to become global financial centers.

Our general experience in Australia is that greater foreign competition in our domestic financial industry has delivered a more-competitive financial services sector for Australian businesses and consumers.

Proper financial regulation can prevent any systemic risks arising. But proper regulation should not be used as a form of protectionism for local industry.

Kevin Rudd was prime minister of Australia (2007-10, 2013) and is president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and chairman of the International Peace Institute. The article is an excerpt of a speech he gave at the second Qiantang River Forum in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, on Saturday.

Source  Caixin

Video: A video interview with Kevin Rudd at World Water Week

视频:独家专访前澳大利亚总理陆克文–政府和私营部门都要关注水和卫生问题!

Foreign Journalists Visit Xinjiang Series (17) –Xinjiang information Office Deputy Director Shaliyef: Xinjiang has seen great changes through Belt and Road Initiative and Tourism

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

STOCKHOLM, Nov. 1(Greenpost)– At lunch on August 31, it was time to say goodbye. This might be the last time that we all eat lunch together. For the whole trip of eight days,  Xinjiang Information Office Deputy Director Ailiti. Shliyef has always accompanied us, but he didn’t say anything, only to help meet any demands coming from the journalists.

But when the journalists are going to leave, he finally spoke. He said the main purpose to invite all the journalists here is to let you all have a look at a real Xinjiang and experience in person about the changes in life in Xinjiang. All the facts have proved that the socialism led by Chinese communist party suits Xinjiang very well.

“Xinjiang is located at the core area of the silk road economic belt. The Chinese Central government has invested huge amount of money into Xinjiang’s development. By the end of 2017, Central government has invested 200 billion yuan or about 30 billion US dollars in infrastructure construction. Xinjiang is building six subway lines and two of them are hopeful to be in operation by the end of this year. Fast train between Lanzhou in Gansu province and Urumqi in Xinjiang has been in operation. Fast train between Beijing and Xinjiang is on trial operation. Once it is in operation,  the time between Beijing and Urumqi will be shortened from three days to one day. Most big cities in China can link with Xinjiang.”said Shaliyef.

Shaliyef also said that Xinjiang has sufficient energy including traditional coal and oil but also large amount of wind farms, solar farms and hydropower. Xinjiang’s electricity can be transmitted to Henan and Hebei provinces.

“Now there are also many airlines linking Xinjiang with other provincial capitals. Many large cities can have charter airlines directly to go to Altay, this will greatly promote tourism industry. By the end of July this year, the number of tourists has increased to 75 million. ”said Shaliyef.

Since 2014,  about 70 thousand cardres and party members have been to the countryside to help farmers and herdmen to help them with knowledge, education and science improvement to improve relations between various ethnic groups and between the regional government and rural farmers.  The farmers and herdmen’s housing condition has been improved and the drinking water, electricity and internet problems have been solved. The changes are magnificient.

“All these changes were due to the fiscal investment from the central government and the 19 provinces brotherly assistance. Socialism  under the leadership of the CPC suits Xinjiang very well.” Said Shaliyef.

He also mentioned the riot took place in Xinjiang in 2009. He said this was due to the infiltration of a small group of extremists who spread extremist and separatist ideas beginning in the 1990s. They had tried all means to sabotage the stability in Xinjiang.  During those years, people dared not go to Bazar to sell things due to the insecure situation. But now it is very safe, people can go to the night market to have a walk and have a look. All are happy because it is safe and stable now.

“I like to give you an example, in Kasgar, there is an old town, there are 75000 Ugyhur people there. Over the decades, there has never been riot activities. Why? Because they are doing good business around the temple. There are many good tourists there. So with good business and life, they also live a good life.” Shaliyef said.

But why did the riot happen in Urumqi? Shaliyef said it was just due to the sabotage of the outside forces. They just wanted to have big influence here.

Shaliyef stressed that Xinjiang’s stability came from the correct leadership of the party at various levels. Xinjiang needs to continue to develop and this needs a safe environment, a good public order. Security is also a big issue for many countries, for mankind. Sometimes, those who have never come to Xinjiang just heard some rumors and believed in it. I hope you can report the real situation in Xinjiang through your reports. Of course we are still at development stage.

About ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative, it is good for the countries along the belt and road because it is not just China that wishes to develop, it is the wishes of many countries. The Ancient Silk Road fostered many big cities. I believe the current Belt and Road Initiative will help many countries and cities develop further. Of course, some foreign media was not very comfortable about the belt and road initiative. But in reality, China’s initiative aims to help all countries involved to develop through cooperation and realize a win-win situation.

There are 14 foreign journalists from 14 countries including Belgium and Sweden and 23 Chinese journalists from the mainstream media in China taking part in this 8 day reporting trip. They have seen the tourism and cultural resources in Xinjiang and how the local government prioritised tourism as a pillar industry in Xinjiang’s development. They also experienced the core areas function of Xinjiang linking inland China and the surrounding countries along the silk and road economic zone.

Photo and text  Xuefei Chen Axelsson

Chinese Ambassador Gui says China pays great attention to China-Europe relations

STOCKHOLM, Nov. 10(Greenpost)– Chinese Ambassador Gui Congyou said that China attaches great importance to China-Europe relations and he likes to listen to all the participants opinion on how to better improve China-Europe relations.

Ambassador Gui said that this year marks the 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up in China. Reform and opening-up, started 40 years ago, have transformed China from a country shackled by rigid planned economy to a vibrant socialist market economy, and from a closed economy and society to one increasingly interconnected with the world. All the Chinese people benefit from reform and opening-up, as no one will live under the poverty line and all will lead a good life. Global economy benefits from China’s reform and opening-up as China’s economic growth contributes over 30% to global growth. Countries around the world benefit from China’s reform and opening-up because China generates tremendous development opportunities and dividends as it is set to become the world’s largest consumption market.

China’s reform and opening-up also contributes to world peace and security. The fact that China maintains social and political stability and is delivering a better life to nearly 1.4 billion people undoubtedly generates strong impetus to keep the momentum of global and regional security and stability.

Gui said that “some people speculate that China’s development threatens other countries, to which I would like to stress that it is not in the DNA of the Chinese nation to threaten and invade other countries. In the 5000 years of Chinese history, China has never waged a war of conquest against other countries. As a nation that endured over a hundred years of colonial invasion and enslavement by Western powers, we know too well the pain of being occupied and enslaved. As Chinese people often say, “do not do to others what you would not have them do to you.” In the vocabulary of China’s foreign policies, words like “invading other countries” and “seeking hegemony” have no place”. Gui said.

“There are also people saying that China is more assertive, which is a serious misunderstanding and misinterpretation of China’s foreign policies. Over a hundred years of colonial invasion and occupation of China led to the fact that China is still yet to realise complete national reunification. Anti-China separatist forces, such as “Taiwan independence”, “Tibet independence”, “East Turkestan” as well as “Hong Kong independence”, are doing everything to sabotage and hinder the reunification of China. What we must do in response is to firmly uphold national unity and advance the process of national reunification. In other words, we will not let any country, any force, any organization or any individual take away any inch of China’s rightful territory. What we are doing is opposing others to break into our house and rob our things rather than barge into others’ house and rob their things.” said Gui.

Gui said that Sweden is the first Western country to establish diplomatic ties with China. As a major Nordic country and an important member of the EU, Sweden leads the world in innovative, green and sustainable development. Just like China, Sweden is committed to upholding world peace and security, and resolving disputes through political and diplomatic means. These factors set up the foundation and favorable conditions for long-term and steady growth of China-Sweden relations. With high importance attached to its relations with Sweden, China is willing to strengthen dialogue, communication and cooperation in all areas, and work with Sweden to make contributions to world peace, development and security .

It is true that our two countries are different in our political systems and ideologies. But it is exactly these differences that make dialogue, exchanges and cooperation more necessary. Because we are different, we need to improve together by learning from each other. However, we oppose exaggerating or politicising these differences and turning them into obstacles of our relations, rather we hope to work together to turn these differences into highlights and propellers of our relations. To make this happen, we need to treat each other as equals, respect each other, refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs and work together for shared benefits.

Gui said that the 19th CPC National Congress that was successfully convened last October established the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, and set the goal to build China into a great modern socialist country by the middle of this century.

To achieve the goal, China will deepen reform, open up wider to all countries and regions of the world, and carry forward with reform and opening-up with utmost resolve and confidence. The first China International Import Expo that is being held represents a major initiative and effort reaffirming China’s determination to open up wider. Like I said at the beginning, China’s reform and opening-up benefits the whole world, and deepened reform and opening-up will only benefit the world even more. We are committed to improving socialist democracy and rule of law, upholding and improving human rights and delivering a better life to all Chinese people. These efforts will bring about greater social and political stability and economic prosperity.

But no matter how much progress China makes in its development, even when China’s GDP per capita reaches the level of Sweden at USD 50,000, China will still stick to a peaceful development path and its peaceful foreign policy, remain committed to building a community with a shared future for mankind rather than interfere in other countries’  internal affairs, invade other countries or seek world dominance. Thousands of years of human history told us one thing, that is any empire that invades, enslaves or occupies other countries will eventually fail and crumble. That is what all of us need to learn and more importantly heed from history.

The Chinese side attaches great importance to developing China-Europe relations. In terms of how, I prefer to hear your thoughts and suggestions, concluded Gui.

时评:锦州各村、社区人民应该耐心等待相信市政府 天宝华府项目正在搭建坚决路线图

北欧绿色邮报网报道(记者陈雪霏)– 记者日前从业内人士获息,锦州市政府通知涉及天宝华府项目的各村,社区的人们,天宝华府项目正在搭建解决路线图,由于市政府联席会没有及时开上,部分购房户,动迁户情绪激动,要求各村、社区及时掌握情况,不能进京上访,把人稳定在家里。

据分析,这个消息说明政府还是在管这个事情,即使是一时在哄大家,他们也承认有这个事情。从搜房网看,天宝华府项目是2012年12月3日开盘到2014年12月31日交房。但是,已经预售了。钱都收了,每户大约在10万到20万元之间。(不要小看这些钱,这都是一家三口辛辛苦苦攒了一辈子的钱。)

但是,事实是,到现在,这个房子还没有盖呢。你要人们耐心等待,不要情绪激动。但是,如果人还活着,钱都没了,他能不激动吗?

尽管如此,笔者认为,亲爱的人民群众,还是要耐心等待,不要激动,要对党和政府有信心

我可以讲讲我知道的某人的亲身经历来证明,只要你们一直争取,就会有解决的办法的。

2004年,陈某购买了亿霖木业的杨树15亩,奖励一亩,16亩。花了5.7万元管护费和树林费。该片树林说是在沈阳康平县。陈某曾经到那里去过,知道那里有树。但是,没有亲自看自己的那片树林到底在哪里,尽管林权证上描述了其邻居是王先生等等。林权证上盖着康平县林业局的红印。

但是,两年后,发现这些人有非法集资的行为,很快,在北京被判刑。两万多人的投资眼看打水漂。这些人就天天去北京市政府去问。因为有的人没有买房,而是把自己积攒的100多万都投进去了。因此,有很多家庭幸福感指数直接一落千丈。

但是,功夫不负苦心人。到2009年,终于石头落地,党和政府按照社会矛盾调节来解决了问题。在报纸上公布了北京各个区县解决问题的单位名称。解决办法是要么要原来的林地,但实际上当时答应的是到10年之后就必须收获了。就是说到2014年就到期了。所以,你是否能等到那个时候,人们并不清楚,基于这样的考虑,陈某愿意承担40%的损失。这就是第二个方案,就是赔偿60%的款项。

到2014年,陈某再次认真看2012年的报纸信息,通过顺藤摸瓜的方式,层层打电话,果然打到了北京二中院周法官那里。他就是负责处理这个事情的。最后,在周法官的帮助下,在2014年6月终于收到了35000多元的赔付款。

由此,笔者认为党和政府还是值得信任的。不是不解决问题,是时候没到。要解决问题,必须有人下决心,有一定的资金。假如资金已经流失在某人或某个组织手里,怎样追回,当然很不好解决。解决问题有两个办法,一个是人民内部矛盾,就是通过说服调节,劝说,把款项追回。另一个办法就是告上法庭。但是,在中国,笔者都不主张告上法庭。因为一旦上了法庭,就几乎没有回旋余地了。就无法再调节了。最好是协商解决。因为锦州人都是活雷锋,都是好人,都是很仗义的人,希望能够通过调节就解决问题。

如果问题很容易解决,估计也不会托这么久。但是,作为政府还是不能不管这种事情的,因为批地,是政府管的,开发商也是政府管的。他有什么不合适的行为,也总得有人管的。因为老百姓的难事,政府总得管的。

再举一个例子。就是房子。人们一开始总是图便宜,买小产权的房。但是,卖方说一开始就是大产权。你买的时候当大产权买,但是,买到手了,迟迟没有房产证。

这个事情比天宝的好一点就是房子已经盖好了。可以住。但就是没有房产证。没有房产证就是无法交易。

2004年卖出,2006年入住。但是,到2016年,就是十年之后,终于拿到了房产证。因为国家要把房地产数字化了,都要在网上登记。借着这个契机,就给房产证了,就可以登记了。

这期间,很多房主就是时不时到政府去问一下,到物业去问一下。物业的回答是,可能到年底吧,到年底再问就是夏天吧。到夏天再问,就是头春节吧。然后就是第二年春天,再然后就是第三年年底……就这样,熬了十个春秋。终于拿到房产证了。

由此,笔者得出结论,问题总是会解决的。大家就是要沉住气。要有信心,有决心,有耐心,等待党和政府解决问题。只是,大家要好好想想,怎样解决最好。大家要商量找到一个切实可行的办法。估计一点儿损失没有是不可能的。但是,怎样能够获得最好的结果,就要等待政府的联席会,需要你们参加的,要积极配合,积极参加。

说话要文明,君子动口不动手。不要太激动。问题总是会解决的!也相信锦州市人民政府的领导有意志,有能力,有办法,有智慧解决这个问题。真正为老百姓排忧解难,让那些还没有房子的人能够过上一个温暖的冬天。让这个涉及很多人的天宝华府的房地产问题尽早得到解决!

另外,明年就是中华人名共和国的70周年华诞,我们必须在这之前把问题解决了,然后,好好庆祝祖国的生日!