Category Archives: Opinion

Opinion: Xinjiang is safe Xinjiang is making great progress

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

STOCKHOLM, July 15 (Greenpost) — Chinese government is determined to solve the Xinjiang problem and they wanted to solve it from the basic, economic development.

I went to Xinjiang last year from August 24-September 2 to visit many places in Xinjiang.

I was told that before 2016, Xinjiang was suffering a lot of violence and potential terrorists attacks. Since July 5, 2009 when the largest scale and most severe violence took place in Xinjiang, Xinjiang people had been suffering from the terrorist attacks in many ways. People were afraid to go to street or go to the market places. But since 2016 when a series of measures were taken to uproot the root cause of terrorism, China opened education centres while investing massive amount of money in building infrastructure and creating more jobs.

When I was in Xinjiang many people said now Xinjiang was safe and there was no bombing at all. More tourists visited Xinjiang and Xinjiang also opened its arms to more tourists. Xinjiang becomes very popular and tourism became a pillar industry.

Traditionally people often think of Xinjiang as a poor province and a difficult area. But in fact, Xinjiang is a rich area full of various resources and beautiful environment. Xinjiang is proud of its various environment. For example along the road from Urumqi to Dabancheng and Turpan, there is a lot of wind and large wind farms are established to supply green energy to Xinjiang and all over China.

The problem started from the uneven development in China plus the three forces from outside to disturb. Because China started opening up in eastern region and eastern provinces developed first. Now it is time for western China to develop.

Since Xi Jinping became President, hundreds of billions of yuan have been invested in Xinjiang to create jobs and improve living standards.

So far, Xinjiang people enjoy a much better life and feel much safer. Those who were educated are gradually released and found jobs for a living.

It is understandable that the security is tight and more strict rules are implemented. It is believed that Xinjiang will be better and better.

If you like to read more about Xinjiang, just click the key word Xinjiang, you will find my report about Xinjiang.

Why Did Sweden Set Free Qiao Jianjun first and then arrest him again?

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

STOCKHOLM, July 4(Greenpost) — Recently when I heard Kina from a news watched by my husband, I was attracted to it and had a look at the news. Then I replayed it with his computer and got to know that Qiao Jianjun was arrested because America wanted him.

It is really interesting to see this news and think of Swedish Supreme Court and Police behaviour.

Earlier, I saw the picture that Qiao was arrested again and he said he got evidence and he denied all the accusations.

Who is Qiao Jianjun? Greenpost reported in early report that Qiao was suspected to be the No. 3 out of 100 wanted suspects by the Chinese Police. These 100 wanted suspects were accused of corruption crimes and huge amount of embezzlement or appropriation of public money. Most of them used to work in the State owned enterprises.

So far, 55 of them have gone back to China to surrender either willingly or being extradited and have experienced fair trial according to China’s judicial procedures.

Qiao was suspected to be the one who worked in Henan Branch of China’s Food Group, a key state owned corporation. He was accused to have taken 300 million yuan to escape to America in 2011. His ex wife Zhao Xiaolan divorced him in 2001 and later went to America and bought a lot of properties including a villa, a shop and others.

Qiao changed his name and married again and came to Sweden in 2011 according to reports. After long time investigation, Chinese police was almost certain that he was Qiao, the suspect they were looking for and informed Swedish police hoping that they would cooperate to crack down on crimes.

Swedish police arrested Qiao last year and kept him in detention. But on June 19th, the Supreme Court decided to set him free. According to reports from the Swedish and international media that the action had something to do with the Hong Kong situation where the students were against the revision of law to extradite suspects to the place where they had criminal actions.

It was reported that the revision of the law in Hong Kong was caused by a case between Hong Kong and Taiwan which saw the loopholes in the law. According to Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry briefing, the case refers to Mr. Chen from Hong Kong Killed his girlfriend in Taiwan. Taiwan side wanted Mr. Chen to be extradited to Taiwan, but the two sides had no agreement or treaty on this issue. Thus Hong Kong SAR decided to revise the law involving the mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan so that they got an agreement.

Analysts guess that maybe because Hong Kong does have a lot of suspects who are wanted by the mainland, they are so afraid of this law being passed. Thus they especially are against the revision to send the suspect to China’s mainland. Otherwise why does the slogan only focuses on the part to extradite to the mainland?

It is also suspected that behind the students there are some forces who could be just those suspects or the suspects supporters. They provided students with money and one American man even encouraged the students to challenge the police with violence.

This man was dug out with internet information as a so called human rights teacher in the mainland and later was expelled out by the Chinese Authority. He mainly taught the students how to demonstrate and how to deal with the police and instigated violence.

No one knows who is exactly behind the scene, but openly one can read British Foreign Affairs Ministry’s statement indicating support or voicing sympathy with the students. It is also known that one of the leaders of the students is still the one who led the paraply movement a couple of years ago.

Swedish reporter Petersson also reported that the students demonstration in Hong Kong was more violent than before. It was not peaceful demonstration any more. It is more antagonism in the action which violated current law of disturbing the public order.

Ok, with such a background, Swedish Supreme Court decided to set Qiao Jianjun free. This was very strange. The second strange thing was that the Supreme Court hasn’t given a written verdict yet. But the person was just set free.

Then, on June 24th, SVT reported that Qiao was arrested again because America wanted him. Qiao was accused by American police that he was suspected to conduct money laundry for 100 million. Therefore he was wanted to be extradited to America.

Now it is even more strange that Swedish court and police refused to cooperate with Chinese police but obey the American police immediately.

Why? I don’t know why. But I guess that shows Swedish police listens more to America than to China. Similar to that British little brother must obey American big brother otherwise, America will cut off your milk supply(trade link).

After my Chinese version of article was published, one reader said either to China or to America, but just not stay in Sweden at large.

Analysts hold that Sweden shouldn’t behave as if she likes to harbor criminals. It is better to extradite Qiao back to China so that he could get a fair trial. If you admit the crime and sincerely regret your behaviour , compensate all the losses, there should be consideration of reducing the penalty.

As far as I know(I used to have a student who studied English with me and worked in China’s Supreme Procuratorate ), China has tried its best to restrict death penalty.


One example of a case in 2000, Erwei was killed by his neighbour with a knife. Erwei was just 25 years old. The neighbour was 60 years old. Both held a knife from the kitchen, the young was running out of the door and the older chased him. Then the young got stuck by a stick and he fell down on the ground. The older man cut him on the ankle of the foot. When he was sent to the hospital, Erwei died of over bleeding.

Such tragedy should have been avoided if our society was more civilised. But unfortunately it happened due to little chore(poverty). According to the criminal law, if you kill someone, you should be punished to be killed. This was believed by Erwei’s relatives too. But the court didn’t sentence the elder man to death penalty immediately, but to execute after two years. That usually means the man will be life imprisonment but not be killed.

Erwei’s mother was not satisfied with the sentence and shangfang or visited upper level of court for many years. Later, she got what she wanted. That was the school fees and living expenses for Erwei’s daughter till 18 years old. At that time the girl was just 5 years old.

This case reflected the situation in China that many people were still struggling with the food and clothes in 2000. Meanwhile, the court tried according to the facts and even with purposely killing crime, since Erwei held a knife too, the other was not sentenced to death.

My student said the court or procuraterate usually dealt with the case with humanitarian concerns. The dead has died, the most important thing is for those who live to have a better life. Therefore, they often try to get more compensation for the victim instead of just getting the other being sentenced to death(meaning not to die).

China used to have very severe punishment for criminal crimes. But after reform and opening up, more and more economic crimes appeared while the so called hooligan crime cases decreased because people were more open than before.

Opinion: The Ghost of June Fourth is not scattered

Greenpost, Stockholm

Looking at the situation in Hong Kong, it reminded me of June Fourth. According to a Youtube video, it showed a woman skrieking to the police told them to refuse the Hong Kong government order and go home because those students are so young that they are called children. She claimed that if the police go home, they will scatter.

But things didn’t happen as she said. There is a lot of similarities between this and thirty years ago. Thirty years ago, University students in Beijing, mostly bachelor- seekers, went to Tianmen Square to have a hunger strike. They said they wanted to ask the government to fight against corruption, increase the teachers salaries and several others. With good slogans of supporting the communist party and so on, many people began to sympathize with the students and provide food and drinks to them.

After 7 days, the government declared curfew and wanted to clear the Tianmen Square. We observers who were post graduate seekers or Phds went back to the campus waiting for the restart of courses.

However, due to the support from everywhere and there were more people gathering in Tiananmen Square causing the collapse of transport and even the workers began to take part in. When I passed by Tiananmen Square on June 2, I saw Xiaobo Liu and Hou Dejian giving speeches and I heard that they were giving 72 hours hunger strike.

I heard the loudspeaker along the Chang’an Avenue began to change tones. That were not students any more. That was workers who said they were going to take violent action against the government.

I arrived my dormitory about 2 o’clock in the morning of June 3 and when I woke up again, it was lunch time already. Then I heard the loud speaker again and again warned the citizens not to go to the street because a curfew had been implemented. If you went to the street, you had to take the consequences yourself.

I listened the warning and remained at the campus.

On the June 5, when I went out to the Baiyi Film Production Plant, I notice on the way from Gongzhufen to Liuliqiao, many military trucks were burned.

It was a sad story. For thirty years, I just wonder why students must stay in the Tiananmen Square and even wanted to burn themselves for the so called Utopia democracy.

I saw a lot of good tents stationed in the Tiananmen Square on the second of June. I was told that the tents all came from Hong Kong.

Recent Youtube video showed that there were an organization called Zhilianhui or Supporting Tiananmen Federation. This Zhilianhui got a lot of donation from Hong Kong and sent the money to Beijing.

Student leaders such as Cailing at that time cried and shouted that they would stay in Tiananmen Square waiting for bloodshed.

From the very beginning, I didn’t think the students decided to occupy the Tiananmen Square forever even with the price of their lives. They just wanted to give a push to the government to reform and stop corruption.

But later, especially after June 20th, students should have left the Tiananmen Square, but they didn’t because there were such a lure that they were supported by the people and workers. If they withdrew, the movement would just end peacefully. Some people didn’t like to see that, they wanted to change China immediately, if you talked about their good intention.

But reflecting that after thirty years, you could find out that indeed there were a small group of growups who wanted to use the students as a shield. Then the students who received money also said they were already in the blacklist, they would stay to the last minute.

Many Beijing citizens ignore the government’s order of martial law, they even took the antiganism action to block the trucks of the PLA men to enter Tiananmen Square. They seemed to let the Tiananmen Square occupied forever.

It was obvious that there were forces behind some students leaders. It turned out that later these people got their passport of America or France. In an interview with Voice of America, a business man whose family name was Chen admitted that he helped 133 students or professors or teachers to leave the mainland through a boat from Shenzhen and via Hong Kong, they went to America or Paris again.

Chen said he was asked by Zhilianhui.

For many years, we reflected on this issue. How can we avoid bloodshed? How can we let our voice heard and how we should behave under this circumstances?

Those day I thought we were spoiled as the prince and princess of the God. We thought we could change the world within a few days. With such naivety, we caused the damage to the society and other people, especially those who supported us.

Later when I went to New Zealand, I observed how they demonstrated to call for increase of students stipend. They queued a long queue with flags and shouted slogans walking to the city center in Christchurch, the third largest city in New Zealand and the famous university was University of Canterbury. I followed the queue and walked less than half an hour. And then the students went back to their campus or home. I asked them what else they would do, they said, that’s the end. We finished here. The next was for the parliament to discuss this issue. They gave time to the parliament.

Supposed Chinese students really went back to the campus even on May 30th, when students leader Wang Dan declared the hunger strike and activities in the Tiananmen Square came to an end. The conflict would have been avoided.

The students splitted, the radicals gained the wind. They lost the original purpose or they changed the purpose because they were bought out by the Hong Kong or other areas bigger force.

From this point of view, Deng Xiaoping saw very clearly. They demanded him to step down, he understood that they wanted the communist party to step down.

The communist party has struggled for 88 years. They have experienced bloodshed themselves. Through the long march, they gained support of the people. Their struggle was very hard and their goal has been to lead the Chinese people first out of foreign oppression and establishing the new People’s Republic. And then they led the people to conduct socialist construction and built a relatively very equal society. Mao said women could hold half of the sky. This slogan was so sound that many Chinese women became drivers, workers and relied on themselves instead of relying on their husband. Women status advanced substantially.

With Chinese medicine, China built its own medical system and substantially prolonged people’s life expectancy. Baby’s death rate decreased a lot. During Mao Zedong period, China was a relatively poor but also very equal society. Many families in the countryside had more than three children. Many families such as mine had six or seven children. A large Human Resources were accumulated.

This human bonus provided great force of labor and paved a good way for later reform and opening up in China.

Great enthusiasm were shown after reform and opening up. People’s enthusiasm caused over heated economy. That caused people’s disatisfaction, especially the intellectuals because they felt their knowledge didn’t serve them to earn a better salary. Compared with the butchers, their salary was lower.

When Deng Xiaoping thought we could take market economy because poverty was not the purpose of socialism. He called it Socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics.

That was to put down the ideological debate and take up development no matter it was socialism or capitalism. China should try to have a new way.

After the June Fourth, China was puzzled for two years. Similar to the time after Mao’s death. But then in 1992, Deng Xiaoping said China should be bold enough to take bigger steps in developing economy. Then private sector became prosperous.

Especially after 2000 when China privatized real estate industry and 2001 after joining in the WTO, Chinese development surged.

Now let’s talk about the Hong Kong students. It is understood that the young students had passions to sacrifice for certain cause. But this was due to their hormons or young enthusiasms. But I think that woman should persuade the students to scatter. Why should they stay there week after week? Any city, people must be aware of order. Without public order, the city will be in chaos. That will do harm to everybody or do good to nobody, except your enemies who wish to see the chaos or to see someone dares to challenge the Hong Kong government or even the central government.

Some people often like to see people challenge the communist party because they simply think they are in power too long. For no reasons, they simply didn’t like the big power. They like to separate others so that it is easy to deal with. Many countries are small and they like small countries because it is easy to deal with.

I don’t rule out outside force support for the students in Hong Kong. Usually the government would not take action against the students because they knew they are young, innocent and sometimes ignorant. But they would likely take action if there is really outside forces. Then they would not be so tolerant.

Hong Kong returned to China in 1997. We were happy that it returned and would like to have a visit. But then I heard that Hong Kong didn’t like the mainlanders to visit. Therefore, there is a pass requirement. However, immediately after that Asian financial crisis took place. Hong Kong SAR came to Beijing and asked Premier Zhu Rongji to help. Premier Zhu Rongji led a large delegation to buy in Hong Kong and thus rescue Hong Kong from the crisis.

To be honest, I think the travel pass limitation should be eradicated. People should be easy to go to Hong Kong, this would be good for trade in Hong Kong.

In fact, as some experts pointed out, Hong Kong benefit from China’s opening up. But when China really opened wider its door, Hong Kong somewhat lost its bride advantage.

But for the current situation, they are against the change of law or judicial procedure for criminals to be able to be sent to the place where they should be tried. This was hard to understand. Some western countries such as Sweden using this as an excuse not extraditing Qiao Jianjun to China. What does it mean? It means you want to harbor criminals right? What do Hong Kong Students mean? Do you want harbor criminals? Do you indicate that you want Hong Kong to be a place to harbor criminal in other areas?

According to the explanation from the Chinese media, this time it was due to a killer suspect from Hong Kong who should be sent to Taiwan for trial, but because Hong Kong doesn’t have such extradition law, they couldn’t do that. This was unfair for the Taiwan victim. But students refused to revise such a law meaning they refuse to send wanted criminal suspect to certain place.

They don’t use normal way to voice their opinion, but take such radical action. I suggest they should go back to their campus and continue to study. They should not stay there all the time affecting the public transport and public order.

Obviously either someone supports them or some of them are radicals or extremists. We shall see.


Xi’s visit to North Korea opens new chapter for Sino-North Korean relations and promotes the process of nuclear free for the Korean Peninsula

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

STOCKHOLM, June 21(Greenpost) Chinese President and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China visited North Korea on Thursday and returned to China on Friday. This was the first time a Chinese President visited North Korea for over 14 years。

Xi’ s visit came upon the 70th anniversary of the Sino-North Korean relations. This was a great step strengthening China’s diplomatic relations with North Korea.

This visit was just second to Xi’s visit to Russia. There Putin celebrated Xi’s 66th year birthday. 66 years old is an important year for Chinese. But Xi visited Russia. This showed his great attention to Russia. Russia or previously Soviet Union was the first country to establish diplomatic relations with China on October 3, 1949.

North Korea was the second country that established diplomatic relations with China on Oct. 6, 1949. Then China had relations with Mongolia, Vietnam and India and so on. This was a deployment of Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai the old generation of leaders who established a new China and wanted to have new relations with the world.

Xi Jinping follows this step and visited North Korea right after Russia. As Xi said, the purpose was to strengthen traditional Sino-North Korean friendship and push the process towards a nuclear free Korean Peninsula.

Xi stressed the nature of the relationship is still based on the fact that China is a socialist country which is under the leadership of the Communist Party. That means both countries are socialist countries. There is good foundation. The two countries are good neighbors. Thus, China will always care about North Korea’s important concerns in security and developement and China will offer help within its capacity.

Kim Jungen fully agreed with Xi’s proposal and echoed his call. Kim agreed with Xi that the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue should be solved through political consulation and negotiation. North Korea will be patient.

Xi said China hopes the US and North Korea can continue dialogue and negotiation.

Xi said he had achieved the goal of improving bilateral relations with North Korea and opening new chance for the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.

Xi’s visit is also step for the preparation of China’s 70th anniversary celebration. But China’s success in maintaining peace and security will serve as a great balance for Asia and the whole world. With the presence of China, Asia is peaceful and the world is peaceful. China under the leadership of Xi Jinping plays an indispensible role in maintaining peace and development in the Korean Peninsula and Asia as well as the whole world.

With the good neighborly relations with other Asian countries, China has maintained the peaceful and harmonious situation in Asia. This can be attributed to great leader Xi Jinping. With his strategic vision, the world appears more balanced and peaceful. This is due to his great efforts in maintaining the world peace.

Opinion: Trump government withdrawal from International circles means its not that competent

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

American fall started in 2003 when it invaded Iraq. It was a mistake to do that. But because Bush administration made a wrong estimation of the situation and took unilateral action to send troops there.

Thus, even if UN Nuclear Inspection Team led by Swedish Top Diplomat Hans Blix reported several times to the United Nations to say that they hadn’t found weapons of mass destruction, Bush still ordered American Army to enter Iraq.

Later through interrogation of prisoners, they found what Blix said was true, almost the only one who told the truth.

Since then, many countries and many people lost their confidence in America. Typically New Zealand was a country that really disagreed with America. Australia and Britain were allies to America because they share greater part of bilateral trade. But more countries and people held that American action was not on behalf of the UN, but only for revenge. Such action was not welcomed by Iraq, nor international community.

In ancient Chinese military book, it said that if you sent troops to far away battle field, you were doomed to failure. It is suitable for the case of Iraq war.

It is easy to go into a war, but it is not easy to withdraw from a war. Thus, while it killed a lot of Iraqis, it also killed a lot of Americans. When I went to America in 2002 in Huston, I saw a lot of men in wheelchairs. I admired that the buses had a function to lower down for the wheelchair, but I also felt that the Americans participated too many wars. Think of it, after the Cold War, it fought the first Gulf War in 1991, and since then always sent out troups outside. It fought a war in Yugoslavia in 1999 and splitted it into six countries. In 1998, US led by Clinton bombed Afghanistan, Sudan. In 1999, American Embassies in Tanzania and Kenya were attacked by terrorists suicide car bomb.

Then in 2001, Bin Laden, a friend of the US who was hired by CIA to train terrorists to deal with Taliban. But when Clinton bombed Afghanistan, Bin Laden turned away his gun towards the twin towers. With considerate plot, the twin towers were attacked and burned down. Why such a durable tower burned down so quickly? Some said because it was metal, if it were soil or stone, maybe it wouldn’t fall so quickly.

And then Bush took the revenge of this on Iraq. Thus it cost a lot of resources for America.

After the Iraq war, the work began to be peaceful for sometime. China joined the WTO and economic growth surged. China’s manufacturing industries experienced fast development due to the western order. Meanwhile, more importantly China’s real estate industry saw a very rapid development. China cancelled the public supply of housing to civil servants. Instead, everybody can or must buy their own apartments. Some people not just bought one, but two, one for his own living and the other for renting out.

There was a boom in real estate sector. The price of the real estate escalated every day.

In the west, people invented the method of paying instalment. That means one can consume first and pay later. This became an impetus for consumption.

In Iceland it were as if people could only borrow money, but there was not need to pay back. Thus everybody borrowed money and consumed first. Finally in 2008, a stock market crash happened.

At that time, many people thought China should not hug the US so tightly. China bought a lot of American debt. But China felt it couldn’t do that because they still could earn money and if China really separated from America, what would happen? No one knows.

Thus, China didn’t sell its America bonds but began to buy bonds from other countries. However, due to the huge quantity of the US, the trend was not turning back, but going on to see more interdependence between the two countries.

About ten years ago, Swedish economists said it was abnormal that a developing China supporting a developed America. But China felt it was in a dillema. If it sold all the American bonds, it was almost like declaring a war against America. So some people said lets use the bonds to buy peace with America.

If China doesn’t sell, then some Americans even talked some nasty things such as never paying back. China didn’t care much about current win or lose as long as everything can go on. The more the US buys, the more jobs China can provide.

China indeed accumulated a lot of skilled workers throughout the years.

America lost its manufacturing and mainly relied on its financial market. Even economic Nobel laureate Paul Krugman sighed that best people went to the Wall Street and in the end the crisis was so tremendous.

In 1990s, there were such sayings in China. It said there were two ladies. One was a Chinese and one was an American. The Chinese woman said she dared not to spend money because she had to save every penny to buy an apartment for her son. The American woman said she had bought an apartment for her son, but she might not be able to pay it all until her death.

This showed different consumption concept and Chinese are good at saving while the Americans spent as much as they had.

While economic problems were rampning, attacks against Kaddafi took place and this Northern African country became kaotic leaving a lot of refugees coming out to Europe.

During Aobama time, America already decided to withdrew troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. That was right.

When Trump came to power, he told Americans that he would make America greater. It sounded good for Americans. But if it is on the sacrifice of other countries interest, it would not be good. It sounded very selfish.

In order to fight the trade war, Trump said America withdrew from the WTO. This paved the way for America to take unilateral action. Now they understood the dillema.

In fact, American action shows that it doesn’t have the capacity to contribute more to the world. On the contrary, America cannot tolerate that Chinese company Huawei could be better than others. Just because Trump administration took a method that could hit so hard against Huawei.

Huawei’s boss Ren Zhengfei said Huawei had good relations with American companies. But now it was American government who ordered companies not to supply service or spare parts to Huawei.

Isn’t this also a way to disturb the market economy? Is American economy really market economy?

Ren Zhengfei, Huawei’s Boss, a great entrepreneur

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

Huawei’s founder and president Ren Zhengfei is a great entrepreneur who has great vision. Compared with Trump, an entrepreneur President, Ren is greater.

Why? Because Trump house arrested Ren’s daughter. Trump was a businessman and he thinks always in economic terms. He promised he would make America greater. But what he did actually is not very good for America.

Why did America become downward? This was because of the Iraq War. If America was patient a little bit and did not invade Iraq, America would have been a great country. But due to its frequent engagement of war and conflict, it made America cost too much.

In some ways Trump was right because they don’t want to shoulder more responsibilities on the one hand and now it is obvious that he wants to slow down China’s speed of modernisation.

Facing such situation, Ren Zhengfei now faced the media. He said Huawei is in its best time thanks to American government’s pressure because all the staff are working hard now.

Without American pressure, many staff were satisfied with their situation and didn’t work as hard. So it turned out to be a good thing.

Talking about his daughter Meng Wanzhou, he said she was house arrested meaning that she can only stay in her home and her house was surrounded by the guards and she couldn’t go to other places except daily necessities.

Ren said his daughter said that she would use the time to study more and get a PhD in the house arrest situation.

Famous South African late leader Nelson Mandela studied in the prison and got a degree in economics from Great Britain.

It is very interesting to study Huawei. In fact, Huawei was established in Shenzhen, but it quickly developed abroad. From very earlier stage, it began to hire retired people for example from Ericcson, from many other western companies.

It paid greater attention to development in western countries. Thus it developed so well because its management was a good combination of east and western thinking.

Ren pointed out that China must respect teachers and raise more young talented people so that we have more young talented ones to continue to work.

He made it clear that it was the American politicians who put pressure on Huawei, but not the American companies. He stressed that he would love to continue to cooperate with western companies.

Many people think the Trump administration should not take unilateral action and should put the US China trade dispute into the WTO mechanism.

Video2: The Second Belt and Road Forum in Stockholm Attracts more People

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

STOCKHOLM, May 28(Greenpost International) — The Second Belt and Road Forum in Stockholm was held in Stockholm Chinese Cultural Center on May 22.

Nearly 100 participants including 32 diplomats from various embassies and international organisations attended the forum organized by BRIX.

Lars Aspling says China plays an important role in African development

Lars Aspling, member of BRIX said China has experienced the largest migration in the world. China’s high speed trains connect more than 80 percent of the population.

Hussein Askary Board member of BRIX speaks about China and Africa

Lars Aspling talks about European countries and BRI.

Norwegian Former Parliament Member Thore Vestby talks about his view on China and BRI.

Family Reunion Banquet

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

Beijing, March 3(Greenpost)—The reason I wrote about my family banquet is that I like to tell people like my husband about life in Beijing and life in China. I don’t know if people can get to know a little bit about Chinese life through an ordinary family reunion.

On March 2,  I arrived in Beijing International Airport with CA 932 taking off from Frankfurt Airport in Germany. On the airplane I watched four films, one is played by Mr. Beans and Emma Thomson, the second is the film directed by Jia Zhangke, played by Liao Fan and Zhao Tao, called Jianghu Ernyu, Daughter and Son in the society. Society in China means Jianghu, that refers to the life outside the political system or institutions. They are mostly self employed or unemployed or employed or exploited in the society. Or they are related to gangs or criminals life.  The story is about the love between this young man and a young woman who are dealing with recreational business such as dancing hall or gambling. But this woman saved the life of the man by using a gun to threat other gangsters. She was sentenced to five years imprisonment.  She showed that she really loved the man. But the man was ashamed of his failure, yet still wanted to have his own dignity. Thus, though they are criminals, they are respected or got a lot of  sympathy by the audience. Another  film is I am Not the God of Medicine about cancer patients getting cheaper Indian medicine and the last one was a film directed and played by Jiang Wen about event in the 1930s, a chaotic China which was invaded by Japanese. With such a big harvest of films in my mind, I arrived in Beijing and saw the sun smiling through the smog.

I thought it were my brother Minsheng who would pick me up, but instead it was Yuee and Fengzhong who are my sister and brother in law waiting for me at the exit.

It was always a little bit hesitating to look for the car parking place. With the direction of the staff at the parking place, we found the car finally.

It took about an hour to arrive at World Trade Center in Beijing. Then I called the Media Center in Meidiya at Fuxing Road 11. They said my press pass is done. So Fengzhong drove us there and I picked up the pass first and then we drove  home. By the time we arrived home, it was four o’clock. Then my young brother Minsheng who is an engineer also arrived home. He said he would invite us to have a family reunion or family banquet in the evening.

So he went to Tianjin, the second largest city of China to have an important meeting in the morning and then immediately drove back to Beijing for two hours right after the meeting. Although my mother has prepared a lunch for us, we decided to eat together in the evening.

Then Tingting who is my young sister’s daughter or my niece said she would like to buy some clothes for her next week piano playing at the school concert. She will play Jasmine flower. Minsheng drove them to the shop and then came back and then bought a card for my Huanwei mobile phone. While waiting for my father who went out to dance in Purple Bamboo park since morning, I slept for about an hour. By about six in the evening, my father still hasn’t come back. Minsheng decided to drive me out and picked up Yuee and Tingting from the shop near Shuangjing and drive us all to the restaurant Guolin near his home.

Purple Bamboo Park is located in Haidian district. When I studied in Renmin University 30 years ago, I often went there to exercise my English at the English corner there.

After we arrived at the restaurant, Minsheng went to pick up his mother-in-law and son. Then Minsheng’s wife Yang Di came in. She is also reporting the National People’s Congress this year. So we might have something to share. This time I decided what to eat and make the order of the dinner. I ordered a lot of vegetables such as the jiucai or grass lök , fried eggplants, mutton carrot soup, beef, fish and dumplings. When Minsheng’s son Yanxi arrived, I gave him the guitar which was my daughter Annie’s when she was small. Yanxi was so happy that he took the guitar and ran around in the restaurant. I patiently waited for him to come back because the more I chase him, the more he would like to run away. I saw a lot of families eating around the tables in the restaurant.  Yanxi saw me stop chasing him, he also calmed down and came back to our table.

Then my parents also arrived with Fengzhong’s car, a BMW bought by my sister.

When all the other members sat down, Yang Di was still busy receiving the telephone call.  Yuee ordered a bottle of orange juice while Minsheng ordered a jar of majs juice. My father got a bottle of beer. Here there is no leader speech, but when the four year old Yanxi saw my father to raise the beer cup, he said every one cheer up! All can’t help laughing and were cheered up by the little boy.

Then Yanxi began to sing a song and then recite a poem and tell another two stories such as the monkey and the crocodile and the father and the dog with the water melon.

My father is 84 years old and my nephew is 4 years old.  Minsheng said anyway today is the 25th day of the first month of the year of pig, it means we are still celebrating the Chinese New Year. Then my father said today is also Zhao Chunzhi’s birthday. I remarked that my father really got a good memory. Yuee said “Did you know who is Zhao Chunzhi?” I explained to Minsheng’s mother in law that Zhao Chunzhi is my step mother or my elder sister’s mother.

“That was your ex wife!” said  Minsheng’s mother in law.  Then my father explained his history again. He got married at the age of 15 and his wife Zhao Chunzhi was 18. When she was 32, she got menagitis or inflammation in the brain. She was carried to the hospital after four hours of walk. But she died after a couple of hours rescue leaving four children behind. My big sister was 11 years old, big brother 8, second brother 5 and the second sister was 4 months old. Later my second sister was given to a muslim family and we never met again. Then came my mother to Chen’s family and before I was born, there was a boy who survived just for two months. Then I was born and followed by my young sister and young brother.

My father often mentioned her especially during spring festival when we all gathered together. Now I understood that her birthday is within the New Year, maybe that is why. Maybe also because a man can also remember his first love forever. It is not just woman who missed her first husband. Man can miss his first wife too.

My father is a great father. It was not only because he fathered eight children, but also because he and my mother together raised these six children so that they all grew up and formed their own family. My two brothers didn’t get the chance to go to university due to the cultural revolution, but they managed their family and life reasonably. My big sister studied at medical school and became a gynaecologist later. I got a MA and became a journalist. My young sister studied intellectual property law and got a MA in law and got a job under the State Council. We both studied at Renmin University which is one of the most famous universities in China. My brother in law works in Foreign Affairs, my brother studied at Petroleum University and got a MA. Later he became an engineer in chemical engineering construction. He shouldered the responsibilities in projects.  His wife now is also a journalist and editor in People’s Daily Online where I used to write for in English.

My father said it is worthwhile mentioning that your three families have some good results. First Tingting is like an adult sitting together with all of us. Then Annie who is 12 years old can speak some Chinese with grand mother or mormor. My husband called before I arrived in my sister’s home. Then he let Annie talk with mormor or laolao.

“ IS Chen Xuefei there?” Annie asked in Chinese.

“Who is Chen Xuefei?” My mother asked.

“That is my mother.” Answered Annie.

“I am your Laolao, can you say hello Laolao?” taught my mother.

“Hello Laolao, Byebye, Zaijian.” Said Annie.

Although simply just two sentences, my mother felt she was communicating and these words spread to my fathers ears, he became even happier and spread this message immediately to everyone he met.

“She can speak Chinese over the phone and call us from Sweden. The meaning is important! That means our family stretched into the Nordic world. ” My father said. My father is always insightful and he had a vision. He studied confucius books and could recite them a lot. His life was clear and his philosophy or principle are all based on the four books of ancient Chinese. He has his standard on what it means to be a gentleman.

Then he said the little Yanxi made him happier because he dared to express himself in front of people. He is not shy and he speaks very seriously. He said if you all sing together with me, then I feel I cannot sing myself. That means you shouldn’t disturb me, only with my own concentration, I can remember better.

Both my father and mother said thanks to Yanxi’s mormor or grandmother praising her for taking good care of Yanxi. But Yanxi’s mormor is also modest and said the boy is just good, his parants are good and his grandparents are also good.

My father asked me if Jan and Annie are happy to see me coming to Beijing. I said not at all. This was a negotiation and long term planning result. I have proposed this half a year ago and said this is an important event in China and I must go. But they don’t like me to leave. Right before I left, Annie got a fever and cough a lot. We had to cancel a compromised booking of skiing and I hope by Monday, Annie can fully recover so that she can go to school. Anytime when I felt I neglected Annie, she would be sick or when she became sick, I realized that was due to my negligence. I felt so sorry about it because when I was busy I could forget her for two days. And then she would catch a cold.

My father said if only you hadn’t leave China Radio International and continued to work there. I said I am still working for them from time to time. My heart is still with them, but I have to make a living by working a lot myself. For important events I still reported to CRI which has a lot of good colleagues of mine.

I feel glad to have such a family reunion and we didn’t have leftovers this time. It is a pity that my big brothers and sisters couldn’t join us this time, but hopefully I will find time to meet them later too.

Coming home, I immediately had a good sleep with a lot of sweat, but write this story in the morning when I wake up.

ÄR KINAS NYA SIDENVÄG EN SKULDFÄLLA? Dags att skilja fakta från fantasi!

Av   Hussein Askary *

STOCKHOLM, Feb.9(Greenpost)–Under 2018 riktades en störtflod av kritik mot Kinas Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), den stora satsningen på ”nya sidenvägar” som ska underlätta förbindelserna inom och mellan Eurasien och Afrika med hjälp av modern infrastruktur, som järnvägar, motorvägar, hamnar, flygplatser, kraftverk, dammar, kanaler och telekommunikationsnätverk. BRI har redan omskapat de internationella ekonomiska förbindelserna i synnerhet i den s.k. utvecklingssektorn och sätter fart på den ekonomiska utvecklingen och fattigdomsbekämpningen i många länder runt om världen med en kraft som inte går att hejda.

Misstänksamhet och kritik mot Kina från nyhetsmedier och politiska krafter i väst är inget nytt, men nu kläs den i andra ord. BRI framställs som ett sätt att lura utvecklingsländer att skuldsätta sig genom stora infrastrukturprojekt för att Kina ska kunna dra politiska och strategiska fördelar, framför allt när dessa länder sedan inte kan betala tillbaka lånen de fått från Kina.

Detta låter ju inte alltför långsökt, med tanke på den skurkroll som kineser, ryssar och andra icke-europeiska regelmässigt tilldelas i väst, inte bara i James Bond-filmer. Vi förväntas inte heller granska ”fakta” som vi blir serverade av etablerade experter och nyhetsmedier, som inte sällan på ett eller annat sätt är kopplade till eller till och med avlönade av staten.

Och varifrån kommer kritiken? Den kommer oftast inte från experter på ekonomi i USA eller Europa, utan från säkerhetsexperter och geopolitiska analytiker som har liten eller ingen kunskap om ekonomi.

Debtbook Diplomacy, ”skuldfälla-diplomati”[1], lanserades som begrepp i en rapport beställd av USA:s utrikesdepartement, som kom ut i maj 2018. Den rapporten användes sedan av amerikanska UD för att ringa i alla varningsklockor i hela världen om vilka konsekvenser Kinas BRI kunde få. Etablerade nyhetsmedier rapporterade vad rapporten hade ”kommit fram till” som om det var fakta. Men rapportförfattaren, en ung akademiker vid namn Sam Parker, som samma år hade avlagt sin magisterexamen på Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs vid Harvard Kennedy School, saknade kända ekonomiska meriter och hade inte heller publicerat någonting om ekonomin vare sig i Kina eller något annat land. Han kom i stället till Harvard efter att ha tjänstgjort flera år på USA:s departement för inrikes säkerhet![2]

Sri Lanka: Inget ”paradexempel”

Experterna och medierna har aldrig presenterat några egentliga belägg för vad de påstår är Kinas strategiska ”avsikter”. Det som de beskyller Kina för är snarare en projektion på Kina av de europeiska ländernas eget koloniala förflutna, som egentligen inte har någonting med Kinas faktiska historia eller utrikespolitik att göra.

Det enda exemplet på vad man hävdar är den kinesiska modellen, som man hela tiden återkommer till, är hamnen i Hambantota i Sri Lanka. Parker menar att Kinas övertagande av hamnen i Hambantota ska lyftas fram i alla sammanhang som ett ”paradexempel” på hur Kina tänker behandla andra länder. Vilken betydelse denna hamn har för Sri Lankas nu aktuella och framtida utvecklingsplaner bryr man sig inte om. Det enda man säger är att chansen att hamnen skulle generera intäkter ända från början var lika med noll, och att Kina pumpade in pengar i hamnen med den enda avsikten att sedan kunna lägga beslag på den.

Projektet, till en kostnad av sammanlagt 1,1 miljarder dollar, var inte en kinesisk idé, utan en del av den lankesiska regeringens plan för att avlasta den enda större hamnen i landet, Colombo Harbor Port, genom att anlägga en ny hamn och bygga ett industriområde i dess närhet. Den planen gick tillbaka till 2002, långt innan BRI var påtänkt. Att bygga kraftverk och anlägga nya industriområden var ett led i satsningen ”Regaining Sri Lanka”, med tonvikt på att stimulera den ekonomiska aktiviteten i landets södra del.

Arbetet med att anlägga hamnen i Hambantota påbörjades 2008 av China Harbour Engineering Company och Sinohydro Corporation. Projektet finansierades till 85 procent genom ett lån från China Export-Import Bank. Hamnen öppnades formellt för kommersiell trafik 2010, men godshanteringen blev inte den förväntade. De låga intäkterna och betydande finansieringskostnaderna gjorde att hamnmyndigheten i Sri Lanka 2016 tecknade ett avtal med innebörden att det statliga kinesiska holdingbolaget China Merchants Port skulle få leasa 70 procent av hamnen i 99 år och få en 85-procentig ägarandel i hamnen och industriområdet, mot att man förband sig att fortsätta investera i en uppgradering av faciliteterna där. Det kinesiska bolaget skulle investera ytterligare 700-800 miljoner dollar i utvecklingen av hamnområdet. Syftet med avtalet var att lätta på skuldbördan för Sri Lanka.

Kritikerna utgår från att Sri Lanka alltid kommer att förbli ett fattigt land utan industri, modernt jordbruk eller annan modern ekonomisk verksamhet som skulle ställa krav på en modern infrastruktur, som denna hamn. Dessutom nämns det nästan aldrig att merparten av den kommersiella sjöfarten mellan Ostasien och Europa passerar förbi bara 6-9 sjömil söder om Sri Lankas sydkust, och att den lankesiska ekonomin uppenbarligen skulle kunna dra fördel på olika sätt av de enorma handelsvolymer som färdas genom dessa vatten. Hamnanläggningen i Hambantota har alla möjligheter att kunna erbjuda sjöfartsrelaterade tjänster såsom skeppsklarering, omlastning av gods med mera samt har ett utmärkt läge för industrier som kan dra fördel av den direkta tillgängligheten till världsmarknaden.

Ena stunden beskrivs Hambantota som ett meningslöst och dyrt projekt, andra stunden som en betydande strategisk tillgång för det expanderande Kina.

 

Sjöfartsvägar förbi Sri Lanka. När hamnen i Hambantota rycks ur sitt sammanhang får man intrycket att Kina har byggt en hamn på en öde strandremsa mitt ute i ingenstans. Men Hambantota ligger bara 6-9 sjömil från en av de livligast trafikerade kommersiella handelsrutterna i världen.

 

Gav Kina lån till Sri Lanka till ett projekt som var dömt att bli ett affärsmässigt fiasko, bara för att sedan kunna ta hamnen i beslag när lånet förföll till betalning? Absolut inte. Men det är det som Parker vill få oss att tro.

Finns det någon annan rimlig förklaring? I den mån som just detta specifika exempel skulle vara utslag av en allmän trend, så är det att det visar att de internationella finansinstitutionerna och deras allierade ställer sig helt kallsinniga till utvecklingsländers önskan om att ta sig ur fattigdom och ekonomisk underutveckling. Parker skriver själv att Sri Lanka, efter ett förödande, decennielångt inbördeskrig, ”vände sig till Japan, Indien, IMF, Världsbanken och Asiatiska utvecklingsbanken med en förfrågan om finansiering för att anlägga en betydande hamn i det outvecklade Hambantotaområdet, men nekades finansiering på grund av frågetecken kring mänskliga rättigheter och affärsmässig bärkraft.” Kina sa inte nej till Sri Lanka, utan hjälpte till att göra verklighet av ett mål som landet självt hade satt upp.

En viktig ekonomisk poäng som vår tids journalister och ”experter” inte tar hänsyn till, är att infrastrukturens värde inte främst ligger i dess förmåga att generera finansiell avkastning; den avgörande betydelse som infrastruktur har för varje lands utveckling till en modern ekonomi ligger i att den höjer produktiviteten i hela den nationella ekonomin. ”Avkastningen på investeringen” är inte avgifterna som kan tas ut från dem som brukar infrastrukturen ifråga, utan intäkterna som flyter in till de produktiva industri- och jordbruksföretag som drar nytta av denna infrastruktur. Vi ska återkomma till detta.

Fakta i målet

Afrika. Den ”bild” som målas upp i den anti-kinesiska rapporteringen motsägs av fakta. Till exempel framgår det av den väldokumenterade forskning som gjorts av China Africa Research Initiative vid Johns Hopkins-universitetets School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS-CARI)[3], att merparten av de afrikanska skulderna inte är till Kina, utan till västländer och västligt dominerade institutioner som IMF och Världsbanken.

I sin vitbok om mötet i Peking i september 2018 med Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) skriver SAIS-CARI: ”Vi konstaterar att kinesiska lån för närvarande inte är en betydande orsak till skuldsvårigheter i Afrika. Många länder har ändå tagit stora lån från Kina och andra. Nya FOCAC-låneutfästelser kommer sannolikt att ta med Afrikas växande skuldbörda i beräkningen.” Kina lånade enligt vitboken ut 133 miljarder dollar till Afrika under perioden 2000-2016, med ett mycket stort belopp på 30 miljarder dollar 2016, efter FOCAC-mötet i Johannesburg 2015. Många afrikanska länder har fått lån från Kina, men i bara tre fall – Djibouti, Kongo-Kinshasa och Zambia – är Kina den största långivaren. I Kamerun, på fjärde plats vad gäller andelen kinesiska lån i förhållande till den totala utlandsskulden, är andelen kinesiska lån mindre än en tredjedel.

Pakistan. Pakistan är ett land som har suttit fast i en skuldfälla i många år, men det är inte Kina som är fordringsägare utan stater och finansinstitutioner i väst. Och, som vi ska visa nedan, om det är någonting som ska kunna hjälpa Pakistan att ta sig ur denna fälla, så är det samarbetet med Kina om att bygga den kinesisk-pakistanska ekonomiska korridoren, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

I sin Debtbook Diplomacy-rapport, under rubriken ”USA:s intressen på spel”, låter Sam Parker den imperialistiska undertonen i rapporten träda i dagen. Som ”punkt 1” slår Parker fast att ”Kinas expanderande regionala inflytande och tillgång till hamnar i Sydasien och Stilla havet på sikt kan ändra den regionala maktbalansen bort från USA:s effektiva dominans till sjöss”. Värre blir det i punkt 2: ”Kinas lån underminerar USA:s möjligheter att använda sitt eget ekonomiska bistånd till att gynna USA:s säkerhetspolitiska målsättningar. Detta bistånd har gett USA ett kraftfullt medel att främja sina intressen i Pakistan rörande kärnvapensäkerhet och terrorismbekämpning.”

Parker, liksom de flesta i väst med en kritisk inställning till Kina, beskyller Kina för att underminera västvärldens strategiska grepp över världen, genom att försvåra för västvärlden att använda ekonomiskt bistånd och lån för att kontrollera andra länder för strategiska syften. Ett märkligt argument!

Idag är det enskilda stater organiserade i den s.k. Parisklubben (nästan uteslutande västländer) och multilaterala långivare med IMF och internationella storbanker i spetsen som är Pakistans största långivare, inte Kina, enligt Pakistans officiella statistik[4]. 2018 uppgick Pakistans utlandsskuld till drygt 95 miljarder dollar, och skuldåterbetalningar (ränta och amorteringar) beräknas 2022-2023 belöpa sig till 31 miljarder dollar. Under innevarande budgetår kommer Pakistan att betala 4,2 miljarder dollar till dessa huvudsakligen västliga långivare. Skuldtjänsten på lånen till CPEC inleddes 2018, men utgörs av knappt 80 miljoner dollar i amorteringar, enligt uppgifter i den pakistanska dagstidningen The Dawn.

Mot den bakgrunden är det rätt ironiskt att den amerikanske utrikesministern Mike Pompeo, som basar över det departement som beställde Parkers rapport, i juli 2018 varnade IMF angående en förfrågan från den pakistanska regeringen om ett nödlån på 12 miljarder dollar. ”Förstå mig rätt. Vi håller ögonen på IMF”, sa Pompeo i en intervju på CNBC. ”Det finns ingen anledning att IMF-dollar, förknippade med de USA-dollar som är en del av IMF:s långivning, ska gå till att lösa ut kinesiska obligationsinnehavare eller Kina direkt”, sa Pompeo.

IMF, och därmed de västliga långivarna i Parisklubben, har aktivt blandat sig i Pakistans ekonomiska politik och suveränitet genom olika omförhandlingar av skulderna och de lånevillkor som alla IMF-lån är förenade med, med hjälp av mekanismer som Extended Fund Facility. Den senaste faciliteten i Pakistans fall var ett lån 2016 på 6,4 miljarder dollar. Ett villkor var att budgetunderskottet inte fick överstiga 4,2 procent, något som i princip omöjliggör statligt finansierade investeringar i infrastruktur. Ett annat var en nedskalning av Pakistans egna utvecklingsplaner med ca 1,6 miljarder dollar. Följden blir, som överallt annars där IMF och Världsbanken går in med sina s.k. räddningspaket, att skulden växer sig ännu större och ekonomin backar ännu mer, eftersom landet ifråga inte tillåts bygga upp en bas för framtida tillväxt. När nya lån går till att betala gamla skulder så spär det bara på den totala skuldsättningen.

Pakistans växande utlandsskuld är en direkt följd av landets enorma handelsunderskott. Varje år de senaste fem åren har underskottet varit minst 23 miljarder dollar, och det ökar dramatiskt. De viktigaste exportvarorna är textilier och livsmedel (huvudsakligen ris). Pakistan har också haft en fordonsindustri. Livsmedel är känsliga för prisfluktuationer, och textil- och fordonssektorerna är inte längre konkurrenskraftiga på grund av den dåliga energiförsörjningen i landet. Pakistans största importvaror (och orsaken till den negativa handelsbalansen och därav utlandsskulden) är olja, naturgas och raffinerade oljeprodukter (bränsle). Det är där Kinas insats genom CPEC kommer att spela den största rollen eftersom det förutom transportkorridorerna är just på energisidan som Kina koncentrerar sina investeringar, när man bygger den kinesisk-pakistanska ekonomiska korridoren[5].

 

Det står helt klart att om Pakistan, som varje år importerar olja och gas för 13-14 miljarder dollar, ska ha en chans att ta sig ur den ekonomiska krisen och skapa förutsättningar för en framtida blomstrande industrisektor, så är det absolut nödvändigt att man satsar stort på att öka den egna kraftproduktionen. Och det är det som Kina nu hjälper till med. Följande investeringar på energisidan är antingen färdigställda, under byggnad eller under förhandling: kolkraftverk (8.580 MW), vattenkraft (2.700 MW), andra värmekraftverk, däribland gaseldade (825 MW), solkraft (900 MW), vindkraftsparker (350 MW). Den förväntade nya kraftproduktionskapaciteten uppgår till sammanlagt 13.355 MW, att jämföra med Pakistans nuvarande installerade kapacitet på 25.000 MW.

Den sammanlagda kostnaden för denna nya kraftproduktion (inklusive kolutvinning och kraftnät) beräknas till 23-30 miljarder dollar, vilket motsvarar ungefär två års import av olja och gas, och mindre än hälften av det årliga handelsunderskottet.

Men i internationella medier fortsätter man att peka ut Kina som problemet, och det händer att rena falsarier kastas in i medieelden som om de var fakta.

Den pakistanska tidningen The News International basunerade till exempel ut i en rubrik den 29 september 2017, att ”Pakistan ska betala tillbaka 100 mdr dollar till Kina till 2024”.[6] Utan att ge någon förklaring till denna absurda siffra påstod man: ”Till 2024 måste Pakistan betala tillbaka 100 miljarder dollar till Kina, av en total investering på 18,5 miljarder dollar, som Kina i form av banklån har investerat i 19 snabbavkastande projekt huvudsakligen på energiområdet inom ramarna för China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). ”Artikeln återkommer aldrig till detta hårresande påstående och ger ingen förklaring till siffrorna.

I Dagens Industri den 20 augusti 2018 påstod Johan Nylander[7] att: ”Under de tre senaste åren har Pakistan lagt på sig skulder till Kina på runt 270 miljarder dollar.” Nylander hänvisar till ”analyshuset IHS Markit” som sin källa, men där hittar vi inga sådana siffror[8]. Siffran 270 miljarder dollar står heller ingenstans att finna eftersom Pakistans samlade skuld till hela världen är mindre än 100 miljarder dollar. Men läsaren av DI förväntas bara svälja dessa uppgifter eftersom de kommer från en av de etablerade nyhetsmedierna.

Produktiva krediter kontra skulder

Sambandet mellan satsningar på avancerad infrastruktur och höjd produktivitet i hela ekonomin har påvisats allra tydligast av studier som gjorts på USA:s egen ekonomi.

I alla frågor som rör långivning är den viktigaste frågan som måste ställas inte hur lånevillkoren ser ut (räntesatser, betalningsfria perioder eller löptider) utan vad lånet ska användas till. Det handlar om skillnaden mellan ”pengar” och ”krediter”. Skillnaden ligger i vad som är ändamålet med utgivningen av nya pengar resp. krediter. Man ser det tydligt i den nu rådande, katastrofala penning- och finanspolitiken i det trans-atlantiska området.

Centralbankerna i USA, EU och Japan, ”the big three”, har sedan slutet av 2008 skapat i runda slängar 13-14 biljoner dollar i nya pengar (genom det som kallas ”kvantitativa lättnader”), och har därutöver pumpat in likviditet i bankerna i form av tillfälliga lån motsvarande ytterligare många biljoner dollar. Men ingenting av dessa pengar – varken pengar i omlopp eller i elektronisk form – har getts ut för något ekonomiskt syfte, inte heller för handel. De har getts ut enkom för ett finansiellt syfte: att förse dessa länders storbanker med tillräckligt mycket kapital och likviditet för att de ska kunna hålla näsan ovanför vattenytan trots massiva förluster och osäkra fordringar.

Krediter däremot, som ges ut av stater, är en skuld som staten ifråga tar på sig, och som ”betalas tillbaka” med ”ränta” genom den generellt höjda produktivitet som den kommande generationen kommer att åtnjuta. Kort sagt, det är den höjda framtida produktiviteten som är säkerheten för den utgivna krediten.

Total faktorproduktivitet

Det finns ett starkt samband mellan kreditgivning till nya infrastrukturprojekt och den så kallade totala faktorproduktiviteten. Den senare parametern är ett försök att mäta den andel av den ekonomiska tillväxten som beror på tekniska framsteg. Den högsta årliga produktivitetstillväxten i USA inföll, med detta mått mätt, under de perioder då man gjorde de största investeringarna i infrastruktur som byggde på ny teknik – ny transportteknik för vägbyggen, kanaler, järnvägar och så småningom rymdfärder, kraftproduktionsteknik, vattenbyggnadsteknik, kommunikationsteknik. Allra snabbast ökade den totala faktorproduktiviteten under 1930-talet, med 3,3 procent årligen, tack vare president Franklin D. Roosevelts New Deal och Four Corners-programmet, med sina stora infrastruktursatsningar. Detta enligt en rapport från U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research från 2013. Stapeldiagrammet visar total faktorproduktivitet i USA-ekonomin (årlig tillväxt per decennium)

Ett i tiden mera närliggande exempel på detta nära samband är Kinas makalösa ekonomiska tillväxt de senaste 20 åren. En utomordentligt hög investeringstakt i vattenregleringar, kärnkraftsutbyggnad och på andra tekniskt avancerade infrastrukturområden – att Kina efter en tioårig satsning plötsligt hade fler kilometer höghastighets- och magnetsvävarräls än resten av världens länder tillsammans är ett i mängden av hyllade exempel – har gett mycket höga tillväxttakter i total faktorproduktivitet och i ekonomisk tillväxt och framåtskridande över huvud taget. Sedan 2008 har Kinas största statliga banker också skapat krediter motsvarande ca 12-13 biljoner dollar, lika mycket som de ovan nämnda västerländska bankerna. Skillnaden är att Kina förvandlade dessa krediter till realekonomiska värden och en högre produktivitet och välfärd för sin befolkning.

Hur Kina har hanterat det egna landets ekonomiska utveckling smittar av sig på landets förbindelser med andra länder.

Bryter med västländernas koloniala attityd

Det är påfallande hur vanligt det är att politiker, akademiker och skribenter i Europa och USA talar till och om utvecklingsländerna och deras representanter i en nedlåtande ton, som om de var barn som inte kan tala för sig själva. Det skvallrar om hur djupt rotad den koloniala attityden, ”den vite mannens börda”, alltjämt är i västvärlden. Afrikaner framställs underförstått, och ibland helt ogenerat, som mindre vetande krakar, som de förslagna kineserna lätt kan lura skjortan av.

I en intervju nyligen på China-Africa Podcast[9] förklarade W. Gyude Moore, tidigare minister för offentliga arbeten i Liberia och andre stabschef åt det landets president, den afrikanska synen på kinesisk hjälp med finansiering, utifrån sin egen erfarenhet av att ha förhandlat med Kina om många infrastrukturprojekt. Han sa:

”När Kina framställs som den här stora, stygga aktören, som är bakslug och överhopar länder med skulder, så tänker man bort nästan all medverkan från ländernas egen sida. Det är nästan som om de afrikanska länderna är naiva och inte begriper vad som händer och Kina slår blå dunster i ögonen på dem. Man nästan infantiliserar afrikaner och afrikanska ledare. … På grund av den begränsade mängd pengar som kommer från internationella finansinstitutioner måste länder som Liberia söka sig åt ett annat håll. … Ett av de få länder som faktiskt är berett att tala med ett land som Liberia, som kanske inte har det bästa kreditryktet, efter att just ha fått lån för nästan 5 miljarder dollar uppsagda, är Kina. … För ett land som Liberia är det helt omöjligt att förlita sig enbart på Världsbanken eller Afrikanska utvecklingsbanken för finansiering av infrastruktur – det går bara inte.”

Som ett förtydligande av skillnaden mellan skuldsättning och investeringar i framtiden, tillade Moore: ”Om länderna ska kunna betala tillbaka sina skulder måste deras ekonomier ha kommit dithän att de faktiskt genererar intäkter, och utan infrastruktur går det inte. Det är som med hönan och ägget.”

Moore bemötte användningen av hamnen i Hambantota som exempel på kinesisk finansieringspolitik: ”Alla hänvisar till hamnen i Sri Lanka, men Kina har lånat ut miljardtals med dollar. Att hamnen i Sri Lanka är det enda exemplet som folk kan dra upp, det tycker jag visar att detta Sri Lanka-exempel, detta enstaka fall, inte kan tas för hela sanningen om hur Kina vinner sina partner.”

Industrialiseringstrappan: Vart går USA och Europa?

De farhågor som många känner inför BRI och det nya paradigm som det håller på att skapa i de internationella förbindelserna är obefogade. Det är felaktiga föreställningar om ekonomi och maktförhållanden mellan länder som driver USA och många länder i EU till att inta denna negativa hållning till BRI.

Man kan likna industrialiseringsprocessen vid en smal trappa. Kina och många utvecklingsländer klättrar uppåt i trappan, medan USA och EU är på väg nedåt, mot avindustrialisering. Båda parter kommer till en punkt där de möts öga mot öga mitt i trappan, och spärrar vägen för varandra. Det är här som spänningarna stiger. Det är här som den ena sidan måste bestämma sig för att gå samman med den andra och röra sig åt samma håll, vilket skulle underlätta för båda att röra sig fritt.

Dessutom skulle båda parter vinna på att bredda trappan så att alla får plats, eller, som president Xi säger när han beskriver Kinas utvecklingspolitik, ”göra kakan större”, så att alla kan få sin rättmätiga del, i stället för att kivas om en krympande kaka.

 

* Hussein Askary är styrelseledamot i Belt and Road Executive Group for Sweden (BRIX), www.brixsweden.com

Paul Gallagher och Jason Ross bidrog med material till denna artikel.

Översättning till svenska: Astrid Sandmark

[1] Debtbook Diplomacy, Sam Parker, Gabrielle Chefitz, maj, 2018 https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/debtbook-diplomacy

[2] Om Sam Parker: https://www.belfercenter.org/person/sam-parker

 

[3] China Africa Research Initiative, The School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS-CARI), Johns Hopkins University, augusti 2018: http://www.sais-cari.org/s/Briefing-Paper-1-August-2018-Final.pdf

[4] Den pakistanska centralbankens egen statistik för finansåret 2017-2018: http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/pakdebt.pdf

 

[5] Budgetåret 2017-2018 uppgick Pakistans import till 60,86 miljarder dollar, vilket var 2,6 gånger mer än exporten, som inbringade 23,22 miljarder dollar, med ett rekordstort handelsunderskott på 37,64 miljarder dollar som följd. Importen dominerades återigen av energi (olja och gas), till ett belopp av 14,43 miljarder dollar. Pakistan har lånat från bland annat västerländska banker för att finansiera sina köp av petroleumprodukter på den internationella marknaden. Den 3 augusti 2018 uppgav den pakistanska tidningen Express Tribune att den brittiska Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) skulle ge ett affärslån till Pakistan på 200 miljoner dollar till 4,2 procents ränta för att finansiera import av flytande naturgas. SCB är en av Pakistans största långivare, som enbart 2016-2017 lånade 1,1 miljarder dollar till landet. För att förstå hur viktigt det är för Pakistan att utveckla en egen kraftproduktion, kan man se på följande siffror: Den totala installerade kapaciteten för produktion av elkraft är 25.000 MW (2017) med en genomsnittlig förbrukning på 19.000 MW. Energislagen är: 1. Olja och gas: 14.635 MW (64,2 procent). 2. Vattenkraft: 6.611 MW (29 procent). 3. Kärnkraft: 1.322 MW (5,8 procent).

[6] The News International, 29 september, 2017, “Pakistan to pay back $100 bn to China by 2024”  (https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/233333-Pakistan-to-pay-back-100-bn-to-China-by-2024 ).

[7] “Nya Sidenvägen hotar bli skuldfälla”, Johan Nylander, Dagens Industri, Aug 20, 2018. https://www.di.se/nyheter/nya-sidenvagen-hotar-bli-skuldfalla/

[8]  En av IHS Markits rapporter från 2018 finns här: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/a-difficult-year-ahead-for-pakistan.html

[9] https://chinaafrica-podcast.com/an-insiders-view-of-the-china-africa-debt-trap-debate

Opinion: Britain is a typical example of not knowing what they want

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

Looking at the opposition’s shouting in the parliament and the shaking of head of May,  I asked democracy was just shouting at each other?

I think May was very clear and calm while the opposition was mad.

What does British people really want? It is very hard to say.

I went to Britain and found that people play with python snake or rare species in Africa or other countries in southern hemisphere.  Why? Because Britain is so rich that they don’t know what to do and what to want.  On the other hand, they couldn’t have as much cash as they want, so they have problem of liquidity too.

And that is the problem of capital world. When there is no capital in capital world, there will be problems. People likes to put money just into stocks so that they will feel secure all over their life without working so hard. And that is totally against the law of development.

Thus the solution for Britain is to either return to EU or negotiate with all the individual members.  Then it will be a long process to be normal.

Opinion: Canada should talk with China to find a better solution

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

STOCKHOLM, Jan. 16(Greenpost) — Canada and China should talk and negotiate a better solution for the future.

China and Canada have a lot of common interest and mutual complementary factors.

Both sides should sit down and be cool headed and negotiate a better solution.

It will harm both sides if one escalates conflicts which was neither due to China nor Canada.

Both sides should cool down and talk for a better solution.

 

Åsikter: Svenska som varit i kina förstår kina bättre än dem some var aldrig i kina

Bertil Wallgren – Floby – 11 dagar sedan

Det är enkelt att vara kritisk mot kineserna. En industriman som jobbade i Kina berättade om ett möte där kritik mot systemet framfördes. Svaret blev: Vi har 1400 miljoner människor, vi har inte tid med er demokrati! Gick en gång på kinesiska muren. Det slog mig då hur lite kineserna invaderat andra länder i motsats till oss i Europa, som härjat över hela världen, och även i Kina! Det tycker jag de ska ha en eloge för! Framtiden? Oviss, men Kina är på uppgång ekonomiskt. Militärt är de fortfarande svaga. Deras militärbudget är en tredjedel av USA:s. Även det är värt en en eloge! Demokrati är bäst, men den har sina nackdelar om man har bråttom att förändra! 

Torsten Dilot – Västerås – 11 dagar sedan

Jag instämmer med dig Bertil. Har själv kopplingar till Kina då min fru är från Kina. Vi har varit gifta nästan 20 år nu. Har varit i Kina många gånger och ofta i minst en månad i taget. Jag har både varit i Kina som privatperson och som föreläsare om säkerhetsanalys inom kärnkraften, energi och klimat på bl a Universitet i Shanghai och på CGN (China general Nuclear) i Shenzhen. Vardagslivet är inte alls olikt vårt i Sverige och människor gör sina sysslor på samma sätt som vi och tjänar pengar som vi gör. Samt att de är lyckliga de också. Jag upplever samma frihet i Kina som i Sverige, med den skillnaden att man inte kan bilda politiska partier. Men som du skriver, det bor 1.4 miljarder människor i Kina och det är en annan kultur. Vad är det som säger att vårt styrelsesätt är bäst även för Kina? Jag brukar säga till kompisar och andra att de först ska åka till Kina och vara där i minst en månad och uppleva landet innan de yttrar sig om deras system. Många som har en åsikt om Kina har aldrig varit i landet… Svensk medias skildringar av Kina stämmer inte överens med mina egna upplevelser. Svensk media vinklar som de vill och det är inte ett dugg bättre än öppen censur. (visa mindre)

Hans Starlife – Helsingborg – 11 dagar sedan

Torsten Samma här, är gift med en kinesiska och bott många år bland lokalbefolkningen i Kina. Vardagslivet är inte så olika, nästan friare faktiskt – åtminstone i småstäderna. Folk jobbar på och har samma drömmar som vi. Storpolitiken bryr de sig dock inte om, för den behärskar de ändå inte. Var och en gör det man är bäst på. Min insikt efter att rest runt i både öst och väst, är att så länge man tar seden dit man kommer funkar det utmärkt. Men de flesta som klagar har aldrig varit i länderna de klagar på. (visa mindre)

Torsten Dilot – Västerås – 10 dagar sedan

Just opiumkrigen handlade om bruket av opium och opium som handelsvara. Storbritannien och Frankrike såg opium som en inkomstbringande handelsvara medan kineserna redan då insåg att missbruk av opium var mycket skadligt. Kineserna ville sålunda inte att det skulle handlas med opium. Engelsmännen och fransmännen vann kriget och opium blev en spridd handelsvara… Alla länder har en historia, inte alltid smickrande. Sverige, Tyskland, Ryssland, Kina, ja även USA med flera länder. Viktigt är att tänka på nuläge och inte det som varit. Då skulle vi aldrig kunna acceptera Tyskland t ex Hur ser det ut idag i dessa länder, jo människor lever i ordnade samhällen med ett stort mått av trygghet. Speciellt Kina är ett tryggt samhälle – vi känner oss trygga var helst vi promenerar mitt i natten i Kina. I Sverige tar vi inga nattliga promenader… Trygghet är viktigt! Följer man lagen och tar seden dit man kommer är det inga problem. Acceptans och respekt och kunna lita på varandra är viktiga ingredienser. Ser man på världspolitiken idag anser jag att det är två ledare som sticker ut i positiv mening, den ena är Angela Merkel och den andra är Xi Jinping. Obama var av samma kaliber men annars är det ganska tunt numera..

Analysis: How Chabahar Survived US Sanctions?

By  Shoaib Rahim

STOCKHOLM,  Nov. 28 (Greenpost)–The United States imposed new sanctions, dubbed as toughest ever, on Iran on November 5. However, Afghanistan and India have received certain waivers from these sanctions. The exemptions allow India to continue to develop Chabahar port and construct its related railway link to Afghanistan’s border. Further, both Afghanistan and India would continue to import petroleum products from Iran. The exemption of Chabahar was stated to be related with the economic development, reconstruction assistance and humanitarian relief of Afghanistan. However, there are many reasons beyond Afghanistan factor that made the waivers less of a surprise.

In 2003, India agreed with Iran to make investment and develop Chabahar port in Iran on Gulf of Oman. However, the project was crawling owing to the US sanctions on Iran. In spite of US dissent, India went on to spend $135 million to construct Zaranj- Dilaram highway that links Kabul– Hirat highway with Chabahar port and completed it in 2009. In August 2015, sanctions on Iran were eased while tri- lateral agreement was signed among Afghanistan, India and Iran in May 2016.

The continued, albeit bumpy, progress on Chabahar port is not a surprise given its strategic significance. Chabahar occupies unique geo- political and geo- economic status in the light of regional and global politics. Chabahar competes with Chinese funded Gawadar port on the lines of strategic encirclement theory as well as provides gateway to India to reach Central Asia as part of its competition with China. Despite this, China has remained a strong supporter of the port due to its close political and economic ties with Iran. On the other hand, while US has continued to tighten the noose around Iran, it has had to show flexibility towards the project. This is mainly because these projects have potential to strengthen India geo- economically and geo- politically in line with its strategy to support India vis-à-vis China.

At present, President Trump’s Afghanistan and South Asia strategy announced in August 2017, underscored increased role for India in Afghanistan, which was warmly welcomed by both Kabul and New Delhi. Given the fact that India’s land route access to Afghanistan is barred by Pakistan, it is Chabahar that would provide a gateway to India to reach Afghanistan and ensure its desired economic and development assistance. In turn, Afghanistan would provide India land route access to Central Asia. These interventions align with the maneuvers to increase India’s influence in Central Asia to counter that of China in the region.

An important aspect in the India- US relations is the Russian factor. India has maintained delicate balance in its relations with Russia and the US. Despite close strategic bonding with the US, India has managed to preserve its historical economic, military and diplomatic ties with Russia amid turbulent US- Russia relations. For instance, the pendulum of India’s multi –billion- dollar arms trade with both countries swings either sides in spite of changing political- economic dynamics. Moreover, it was mainly Russia that pushed for the membership of India in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an important regional platform. Therefore, any decision of the US that would restrict economic gains of India might affect India’s presence in current US orbit.

The waiver on oil imports granted to India also revolves around Chabahar. India is one of the top four oil importers world- wide while Iran ranks third on its list of suppliers. Therefore, in response to US pressure to cut oil imports from Iran to Zero by November 4, India made its intentions clear to defy and go against them, almost one month ahead of the deadline. Further, India’s stance to continue to buy oil from Iran at this critical juncture has implications for strengthening relations of the two countries and pave the way for long term partnership, including smooth implementation and operationalization of Chabahar.

Alternatively, India could have moved to other countries to meet its oil demand. However, Iran had already threatened that if India shifted to other countries as a consequence of sanctions on its oil trade, it would lose special privileges at Chabahar port. On the other hand, Afghanistan relies on Iran for transit route and imports including oil. The sanctions would might have disrupted trade and transit tries leaving a struggling Afghan economy in tatters. Hence, the exemption gives the country a sigh of relief.

Here, it is worth mentioning that China has expressed its support and interest in Chabahar from time to time. If Iran is frustrated with India at any stage and consequently engages China in Chabahar, it would severely dent the planned strategic gains of India around the project.

The unique strategic status of Chabahar earns it exemption from the toughest ever sanctions of the US.  However, the remaining sanctions would plague Iran’s economy. Therefore, while the project survives the sanctions, it would be hard for an economically weakened Iran to accelerate the pace and work together with India to fully operationalize the port and reap its economic gains.

Shoaib Rahim (Development Economics 2012) is an Afghan, Macro-economist, University Lecturer, TedX Speaker and Youth Activist. He founded ‘Gaheez – The Rising Afghanistan’, an initiative to engage youth in the development of Afghanistan.

The views expressed here only represents the view of the author.

Commentary: What is the significance of commemorating the end of the First world War?

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

Stockholm, Nov 12. (Greenpost) —  A grand celebration was held in Paris with participation of major first world war countries leaders including Putin, Trump, Merkel and Macron.

Actually at the end of 2014, after holding back of my breath for a year and suddenly I felt relieved. Another year went by without the break of any world war. But someone said in fact modern war is a war without smoke.

For example, that year, Russian economy almost crashed with financial crisis with pressure from the US.

But at least the real gunpower was not used.  I think it has great significance to commemorate the first world war.

Recalling back, one can realize that the reason for the first world war was due to the economic market reason and ignited by the accidents of the assasination of the Austrain King.  Nationalism was very strong at that time and there was no thoughts of   how big loss it will be  one all the countries involved in the war.

Looking back, one can see that the war was faught very barbarianly. It was fought with more weapons and lives.  Human beings lost their ration and they fought just because they belonged to different nation or different ethnic groups. It was very primitive and yet, 60 million lives were taken away.

Thus, after four years they all came to the conclusion that they should stop the war. But one lesson was that France wanted to ask Germany to pay much more.  Namely to cut Germany’s colonies.

The Versais Palace Treaty was unfair not just to Germany, mainly it was to China.  China joined the war and fought together with France and other countries, but in the end, its land in Shandong province was given to Japan. It was unfair.

Later Germany thought the treaty was too harsh on it and that led to hatred to the neighbors and wanted to fight back later.  Thus with leadership of Hitler, extremism permeated in Germany.

This could be a great lesson to draw.

Currently  you have a leader like Trump who likes to use his power and you have a leader who doesn’t care about any pressure, such as Putin.

And some Europeans said irresponsibly that there might be a war in South China Sea.  This is very irresponsible.

Through this commemoration, one should realize that the war is so harmful that it will be detrimental to everyone.

Two lessons should be drawn from the first world war. One is to forgive. Like China forgives Japan and didn’t ask Japanese to compensate so much.

Two,  one should treat every country equally.  And these lessons were drawn after the second world war. That was to build the United Nations.

Many other international organizations have been established.

The current world should learn from the lesson and gave up too much nationalism. Internationalism should be promoted. Simply when anybody thought of war, you must try your best to avoid war. If you don’t want to create a war, you shouldn’t stimulate a war, you shouldn’t put people to test.

China is a peace loving country. I don’t think it will launch a war.  But if you push on it a war,  it is a country who will do all it can do to fight back.

History shows that anyone who fought with the Japanese, win it or not, in the end, it all has been Chinized.

For example, the Mongolians and the Manchurians have all been chinized and they all accepted the Chinese culture in the end. Why? Because Chinese culture has great essence in it. It always gives out the best it has and that is always a wisdom and a virtue. Man can not fight with this kind of behaviour.  It always treats people as brothers and sisters.

Its socialist ideas mean that no matter big or small, any country is equal with others. Thus, countries should also help each other, but not fight with each other.

For example, belt and road initiative is jus the idea of peace and development.

Anyway, one should draw lessons from history and try our best to safeguard the world peace and continue development.

Xuefei Chen Axelsson