图片新闻:南京名城会开幕式上演云锦时尚秀

北欧绿色邮报网图片报道--10月23日晚,2016南京历史文化名城博览会(名城会)开幕。在南京中华门瓮城举行的开幕式上,模特进行了云锦时尚秀表演。这场云锦时尚秀分为“烟笼月色”“月迷津渡”“长河落日”“绣·妆花”4个篇章,展示由设计师劳伦斯·许设计的云锦服装。  新华社记者孙参摄。

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图片新闻:保护长江江豚

北欧绿色邮报网报道(记者陈雪霏)--  10月23日,在中国科学院水生生物研究所武汉白鱀豚馆,负责动物训练和医疗管理的驯养员王致远在训练长江江豚“多多”。

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10月24日是国际淡水豚日,中国科学院水生生物研究所与湖北长江天鹅洲白鱀豚国家级自然保护区合作研究保护长江江豚,使长江江豚迁地保护工作取得阶段性成果。据该自然保护区调查统计,保护区长江江豚的种群数量已超过60头,近期捕捞起水进行体检的59头江豚中有18头为成年雌性,其中有9头怀孕,11头哺乳(其中4头同时妊娠)。

长江江豚是一种古老的水生哺乳动物,被世界自然保护联盟列入“极度濒危”级别。《2012长江淡水豚考察报告》显示,长江江豚仅剩1045头。

来源: 新华社记者戚恒摄

Why did American prefer Trump to Clinton?

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson

STOCKHOLM, Nov. 9(Greenpost)– The republican candidate Donald Trump won the American election with 278 seats against Hilary Clinton with 218 seats in the senate.

Trump not only won Florida and Texas, the bases of republicans but also Missicippi and other states. Why did American prefer Trump to Clinton since many expected Clinton would win at the beginning?

In fact, at the beginning, many Americans were disappointed with the politicians no matter who ran for it. But as the battle became heated and the fighting against each other is getting more fierce, that stirred up a lot of interests in the process.

When people think of Hilery Clinton, she is considered an experience politician who has been Secretary of State and Senator. Her husband Bill Clinton used to be president and she was the first lady. However, Bill Clintons sex scandal let him down and Hilerys toughness made a lot of men tended to the republicans especially in Texas and Florida.

People donot like Trump because they dont know about Trump. They only heard his sharp words.  And Americans like that. They rather like a mad dog biting than an arrogant but not honest dog.

As a businessman Trump understand very well what people want and he just said what they like to have while Hilerys remarks might be thought as a cliche.

American people like excitement and like something surprising. So they chose Trump because they dont know how good or how bad he can be. So they gave him a chance.

Trump said he will unite America and work for all the people. His tone sounds better when he won.

People got to see what he will do instead of just listen to what he said.

 

Hans Blix, top diplomat who seeks truth, strives for world peace

By Xuefei Chen Axelsson
Stockholm, Nov. 9(Greenpost)–Swedish top diplomat Dr. Hans Blix has won respect for his great work in disarmament, inspection of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and his great courage and strength against pressure from the super powers and the media. He is a role model for being a great human being and a man with important mission. The following is an article published by peoples daily online on

16:02, June 09, 2010      

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Swedish top diplomat Dr. Hans Blix has won respect for his great work in disarmament, inspection of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and his great courage and strength against pressure from the super powers and the media. He is a role model for being a great human being and a man with important mission. He said that he is striving for a world without wars. It is an honor for me (People’s Daily Online correspondent in Stockholm) to have the chance to have an exclusive interview with him at his home in Stockholm center recently.


Hans Blix (photo by Xuefei Chen)

The urgent thing is nuclear test ban treaty

Q: What is your comment on the vision of a nuclear free world?

Hans Blix: As a vision, I think this is desirable, we all want to have that. I don’t think it is necessarily naïve. Sometimes it occurs to me that between 1910 and 1950, we had two world wars, and one collapsed world organization, the League of Nations. A lot of things can happen between 2010 and 2050.

The risk of putting too much attention to it will divert the attention from what the fight is about today.

Today the most urgent thing is to go into effect the test ban treaty and there we need the ratification by the US and by China, and by Israel, Iran and Egypt, and a few other countries.

We also need to have more disarmament agreements between the US and Russia. We need a convention prohibiting the production of uranium and plutonium for weapons. These are the big task today. We must not divert the attention from today’s needs.

Q: What is your comment on the US and Russian signing of a treaty to reduce strategic nuclear weapons in early April?

Hans Blix: I think it is a very important signal that the executive powers in Washington and in Moscow want to reset the button as they said and move to the new direction. The cut is relatively very moderate, not significant, and above all, the maintenance of mutual inspection on the ground from America to Russia, from Russia to America is very important for the confidence building. At the same time it shows the difficulties that lie in the remained distrust.

Therefore the most urgent need I think is further détente or relaxation, diplomatic relations and diplomacy must give us more relaxations. The START treaty would not come about unless Obama has changed the policy regarding the missile shield positions in Poland and Czech Republic.
He modified that (you remember) and decided they would not have this for the basis of strategic shield in Poland and Czech Republic. But rather in the East Mediterranean for intermediate range missile, this was very important politically diplomatic step and that made the START possible. We need to go further in this direction.

He clearly indicated that the US intends to reach the policy of relaxation of accommodation with Russia, this is fundamental for further to go on. That has related to Russia, they also need similar policy of détente between the US and China, and between China and Russia, there must be relaxation between all the big powers in order to go further decisively in the field of disarmament.

China can take the lead to ratify the nuclear test ban treaty

Q: What is your comment on China’s role in maintaining world peace?

Hans Blix: China should go ahead to ratify the nuclear test ban treaty, there is a positive attitude of the Chinese government at the UN Assembly.
Many people suspected that China is waiting for the United States to be the first, I think China will be in a very influential situation over the US if China goes ahead, China will also not be bound by the ratification until the US ratifies. It will not bind China, but it will be very good thing for China to do.

China has been restrained. China of course can do much more to contribute to disarmament, China could contribute much more in the diplomatic side. It is wise to be restraint with Taiwan, China is pursuing a wise policy with Taiwan, the other is with India, you have a border with India, it should be negotiated and with diplomacy, there should not be much controversial, it is important to have the certain border.

The whole Asia gained in economic development as China is rising. They want to be guaranteed that China will not use any military power, the controversy is about some small islands in the South China Sea, sometimes other countries also claimed they own them, by the Philippines, or Vietnam, I always say that to my Chinese friends, why don’t you take it to the judicial measures to international court of justice for example, because for the moment it doesn’t seem to have any economic interest around them, if you negotiate, there is always a looser or winner, but if you go to the international court, like many other countries to settle that there, no one will be a loser, you will not be a loser even if you lose it, many countries have used it even the big powers.

The UK and France settled the islands in the English Channel by the International Court of Justice. I think the use of peaceful means of settlement of dispute is very important.

There are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq

Q: The Iraq war has passed 7 years. But your voice’ there is no weapons of mass destruction’ is still lingering around people’s ears. You were the one who dared to tell the truth at that time, against the wind, (you are the one who really deserves a Nobel Peace Prize) did you face a lot of pressure at that time from the US and the UK? How was the situation?

Hans Blix: We regarded ourselves as the international civil servants, and civil servants are to serve the governments, and to give them the objective basis for their decision as accurate as possible. The government has the popular democratic mandate to act. The civil servants do not have the democratic mandate, they are giving the basis for discussion and that must be the honest one, as objective as you can be in this world. And that was what we tried. We were trying to look for the truth all the time.

I would say that we were not threatened by the governments, by media yes, media in the United States were ferocious about us, they tried to skin us alive, but not the US government, they respect our independence I would say.

The pressure, yes, but not the thing that we felt intolerable in any case, we did not intend to yield on any kind of pressures, so our instinct was simply to give the fact, as diligent as we could, and we were quite competent and we had a competent team of inspectors.

The US and UK tried to get a resolution which in fact authorize the war in Iraq, and they didn’t get it because the majority in the Security Council were skeptical , the majority were not certain if there were any weapons of mass destruction.

We had carried out 700 inspections in 500 different sites, and we haven’t seen any weapons of mass destruction, we have also followed up the leads given to us by intelligence organizations and we didn’t find any weapons in the places that they indicated. So I think that had an impact upon the majority in the United Nations, they said look inspections had been there, and they hadn’t seen anything, it is you who say there is something, they haven’t seen anything, let us continue with the inspection, that was the majority wanted, but the US particularly didn’t have the patience, they have 200 thousand men sitting in the desert and waiting, they said no, we can’t wait any longer. And they went ahead.

A victory for the Security Council not to give authorization

Hans Blix: But the inspection had the effect that the UN did not authorize the action. And some people have said that the fact that the US and UK went ahead, this was a sort of humiliation of the Security Council, I would say that the fact that the council did not give the authorization was a victory for the council. It was a victory for the council because the US and UK should not get authorization and they didn’t get it. So the council was right.

Q: It was after the war that you said it was certain there were no weapons of mass destruction, why?

Hans Blix: We made many reports to the Security Council to say that we haven’t found the weapons.

After the war, something became clear, and it was the US that interviewed many Iraqi military, political and scientific people and while Saddam was still there, we also interviewed them, but it could not be sure that they will tell us the whole truth, if there had been any weapons of mass destruction that they had known about it, would they have told us? Probably not because they wouldn’t have dared to.

But when Saddam was gone, and the US came. People should have rewards if they told yes, they are there. They could have gone silent or they could go for rewards, so there was much more credibility in interviews once the US occupied than we did. So we realized it immediately when the US didn’t find any weapons, then there are not weapons, so then they can ascertain about it, before it was uncertain.

Then the media became angry because they have been wrong, they have been so certain that of course there are weapons. It is a naïve idea that Saddam is evil so there are weapons. There was misleading in the US media and there was a lot of misleading in the US government.

I am not accusing Bush for talking about not being faithful, some people say they lied, I am not saying that, I am saying that first they misled themselves, then they misled the public, it is a bad judgment.

In the UK there was much opposition to the war, there was also opposition in New York, demonstrations were everywhere, there were a lot of demonstrations before the war, and in London there were enormous demonstrations against the war, but they were misled by Saddam.

The reason why they stressed so much weapons in London was that they can sell the war on the weapons, but they cannot sell the war on democracy in Iraq.

The parliament said democracy is not our job, but the weapons are an argument that they could sell.

The only gain of the Iraq war was that Saddam was toppled

Q: Was there really weapons of mass destruction before? Or biological and chemical ones in Iraq?

Hans Blix: After 1992, Iraq didn’t have any weapons of mass destruction or biological or chemical weapons any more.

In fact, Saddam ordered the destruction of all the biological and nuclear and chemical weapons in 1991 when the UN adopted the resolution in 1991 after the Gulf War.

Some chemical weapons were not destroyed in 1991 but they were declared, and they were then destroyed under the supervision of the UN in 1992.
So after 1992 there were no weapons of mass destruction.

Q: That means the UN sanctions on Iraq had been effective?

Hans Blix: The UN sanctions forced Iraq to destroy the weapons of mass destruction. But they made a mistake that they destroyed them without the presence of UN inspectors, we found the relics of the broken bombs and material that had been destroyed in 1991, but if Saddam invited the UN inspectors in 1991, then it would have been much easy to see how much was destroyed. Whereas he did it alone without any inspectors, then when the inspectors came and said you had so and so missiles and now we only see so and so many, where are the others, ‘well we destroy them’, you could not verify then. Much of the uncertainty rose because they had not had any international presence.

Many people suspected that Saddam wanted the ambiguity about it. On the one hand he said to the UN that they had destroyed the weapons of mass destruction, on the other hand, he wanted to create the impression that maybe I have some still, and that caused the second war, that uncertainty caused the second war. So it was unwise. You can put up a sign in a house saying watch the dog.

Q: Was it necessary to have the second Iraq war?

Hans Blix: Totally unnecessary war.

Q: Could that have been avoided?

Hans Blix: Yes, if we got a few more months of inspection.

Q: What is your comment about the global security now?

Hans Blix: Much better now than the Bush period, during the Bush administration, we were moving to a ‘cold peace’, in particular the missile site in the Czech Republic and Poland sharpened the relations with Russia, and they plan the NATO to push Georgia and Ukraine to become a member of NATO caused the sharpening of relations, Georgia started the war with Ossetia because they have been given a lot of arms by the United States. So I think this has changed now.

I think the US agreement on nuclear with India under Bush administration was unwise. I don’t think it was prohibited under the non-proliferation treaty, but it was certainly a contradiction with the guidelines that you should not export to the country that has not joined the NPT.

The worry I and many had under the agreement is that India will be able to import uranium fuel for its nuclear reactors, and then it can use the rather limited resources they have or their own uranium to enrich to weapons grade, if they want to do it, I am not saying that they are using it, but anyway, Pakistan and China can suspect that India is using and then you can have a race.

Thus, I think US-India agreement is not in the right direction. And the US and Australia and Japan as alliance are not in the direction of detent, but China reacted rather calmly. We need all the countries to work multilaterally rather than through blocks.

The solution for this is a convention by India, Pakistan, China, the US and other countries to agree that they will not produce any uranium plutonium for nuclear weapons purposes, and this will be with verification, this way we can ensure that there will not be piles of rich uranium or plutonium.

There has been a proposal for such a treaty in Geneva, but the only country that resisted it is Pakistan, which is blocking the decision.

I think it is very unwise of Pakistan to block the discussion. So there is such a draft for the convention, cut off the production of uranium and UK, France and Russia will not produce any more because they have had enough, China will not too. There is no resistance of the big powers. So far it is Pakistan that resists it. But they operate by consensus.

Q: What is your dream world? Or what are you striving for?

Hans Blix: I have been lucky in my life, in two important areas, one is disarmament, two: the energy, the world without wars.

Look at the history, most wars were with borders, wars about territories, Saddam was the last ‘emperor’ to invade Kuwait, now that ideology has gone.

Oil or gas should not be a reason for war. There are civil wars, some regional wars but no world war.

My basic optimism based on independence of countries. China owns more bonds of the US and needs to export to the US. , EU and Russia. Russia needs money and EU needs gas, so they pay attention to each other, they don’t go to security council until they find a solution after negotiation.
I welcome China to be in the WTO, I think it is also important that Russia should get into the WTO.

And we all need to develop these institutions and we all use the judicial organizations to solve our disputes. Integration and building multilateral institutions are very important.

Q: Why is Iran not trusted?

Hans Blix: There is mistrust on Iran because Iran has two nuclear reactors helped by Russia. It is not economical for Iran to build nuclear because it costs a lot of money to build the enrichment facilities, and it is not economical to build it, it will be more economic for them to import uranium.

South Korea has 20 nuclear reactors, they import enriched uranium, Sweden has 10 nuclear reactors, we import uranium too. Iran only has two, so it is not economical for them to build enrichment facility of their own, they would need assurance of import of uranium for the power plant they have, and I think they could have that.

I think there are diplomatic solutions for the Iran issue. It would be disastrous if anyone tries the military solution because if Iran is attacked, it is not sure if you can destroy all the nuclear, if Iran didn’t want to develop nuclear weapon and if they are attacked, they will really develop it.

I suspect that the root of Iranian uranium enrichment program came in the 1980s, when it had a terrible war with Iraq. And they suspect that Iraq was going to use nuclear weapons, they might not have decided to have the weapon, but they could have moved closer to the weapon option. It was foreign policy, it was the relations with the outside world that is more important, the Israeli has the weapons because they have the fear of Arab countries, India has the nuclear weapon because they think of China and Pakistan because they are afraid of India, so doing away all these tensions, that is also doing away with the will to build the weapons.

Q: How can you prevent nuclear weapons?

Hans Blix: It depends on the will power, for example Japan, if they want to develop, they can develop in a year, but in their constitution they are against it, so I don’t worry about it. But now the nuclear technology is very popular, South Korea and North Korea all can develop that. The US is doing it in 1940s, so the question is the will power and the resources.
That is why it is very important to understand this. 98 countries among 198 countries in the world decided they don’t want it.

If you don’t feel threat, you don’t need the weapons. So the important thing for the world is the relaxation of the world tension or detente.
Now all the major governments are pragmatic, Chinese government is regarded very pragmatic; the US current government is very pragmatic, and wanting to go to peace; Moscow as well, and Mr Putin is too pragmatic.
The UK and France are both very pragmatic, so we have relatively sensible governments in the world for the moment, and that is a good situation.

Q: What is your comment on China’s nuclear policy?

Hans Blix: I think it is very progressive. China is looking energy issues seriously, it is very important. When you look at coal, carbon capture, and separate carbon from coal, I hope this will be successful in the future.

China is really trying and developing more advanced nuclear technology. You have Russian reactor, French reactor, American one and you develop your own design too.

To improve the living standard in the world, we need energy, and industrialized world has tremendous use of the fossil fuels, and raised our living standards enormously, unfortunately we haven’t been aware until recently that the burning of the fossil fuels resulted in so much carbon dioxide, that threatens the climate in the future,

Nuclear has always provided a lot of power, so I was always in favor of the nuclear power even before the climate issue came out because this is tremendously powerful and condensed power. Not without risks, but all energy has risk.

It is one sort of energy, with global warming added, it is efficient process, otherwise, it is very clean, the same with wind power, solar power, these are important source for the future, nuclear power today can give us enormous efficiency.

I am interested in using thorium which is another basic element. If you can use thorium, it is very good. Thorium is three time more available. It is very sustainable. Nuclear has development possibilities. China is aware of that and can use it.

Q: Which is the largest threat to mankind, nuclear weapon or climate change in your opinion?

Hans Blix: I am inclined to think that climate change is the number one threat because nuclear weapon concerns a number of countries, we can abolish nuclear weapons with agreements of some major countries.

But climate issue concerns people all over the world in using energy.
China has been very restrained in the military side, although the US is very worried about the buildup of Chinese military force, when I see the statistics, today the world is spending 1400 billion dollars a year, 45 percent of it was the US spending and five percent in China.

I think the total sum is ridiculously high everywhere, and we could cut this in half and use it for energy saving, and defending it from global climate change.

Q: What is the most important thing in your life?

Hans Blix: The family is very important. I married in 1962, soon 50 years. We have two sons, both are PHDs, they both have one boy and one girl.
And I am not going to retirement again, I have been going to retirement three times before, I will continue to work as long as I can.

My work is my hobby. We both are interested in art. We have rugs, antique rugs, we both like nature romantics, we hikes, skis and go out to the nature. I have never enjoyed spring so much as this spring when you look out and see the trees.

Q: What is the driving force for you in your life and work?

Hans Blix: I always like to do things, to get results, in many areas is the same. If I want to write a book I should get out a book, or my wife gives me a vacuum cleaner then I clean the apartment and like to see it is clean, or I cook in the kitchen and I like to see the food come up.

Results, I like to see the results. That has always been the drive to get results when you do things.

Dr. Blix visited China in 1964 for the first time.

“We have been many times in China. I can see tremendous evolution in China and freedom as well. We know China has a long way to go, but I don’t like to preach because Chinese people know very well in what direction they are going to go and that pragmatism development is good, I like to go now to two great universities, I come from a university town and I am going to visit Tsinghua University, a chance to discuss with students and teachers and then to Fudan University and this process of searching the truth is universal and in everywhere,” Blix concluded.

About Hans Blix

Dr. Blix graduated from Uppsala University and was Associate Professor in International Law at Stockholm University. From 1963 to 1976 he served as the Adviser on International Law in the Ministry. He was State Secretary for International Development Co-operation from 1976 to 1978. Then he became Minister for Foreign Affairs of Sweden. From 1981 to 1997, he worked as Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA for 16 years.

In 2000 when he decided to retire at 72, he received a call from former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to nominate him as the Executive Chairman of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission from March 2000 to June 2003.

By Xuefei Chen, People’s Daily Online correspondent in Stockholm, chenxuefei7@hotmail.com

(Editor:张洪宇)

悼念气候专家PROFOCA会员审计佛雷德.哥德贝尔

北欧绿色邮报网  陈雪霏

11月9日,斯德哥尔摩大雪纷飞。美国大选传来消息,特朗普获胜。大雪不停地下着,让我想到了10年前同样的雪,也想到了我们瑞典专业外国记者协会的老会员佛雷德.哥德贝尔(Fred Goldberg).

10153040_136256199878373_4400592857039693095_n

右一。

上星期一10月31日,我和同事瑞克去医院看望他。当时,他看起来很瘦,只吃了一勺中午饭。我说我从伦敦回来再给他打电话。所以,尽管我没有去成伦敦,我还是在PROFOCA和中欧文化协会举行完文艺汇演之后,想着给他打个电话。结果电话那头传来的是他女儿安妮卡的声音。她说佛雷德在11月6日星期天就去世了。那天斯德哥尔摩就开始下雪了。

人要走,可能都有预感。10月26日中午,我接到佛雷德打来的电话,从声音上,听不出异常,但是,他一开口就对我说,我要走了,恐怕不能再给PROFOCA做审计了。我的大脑嗡地一下,不知从何说起。他却平静地说,五年前,他就得了前列腺癌。现在已经扩散到全身各个器官。我说,你要坚持,我过两天就去看你。

1491741_136256283211698_2717464661842322185_n第二天,我们在新闻司办公室举办了关于美国总统大选的选前分析。当时,我就和秘书长瑞克说,我们第二天看完演出场地就去看佛雷德。

第二天,我做好佛雷德喜欢的牛肉饭,给他发了个短信说,下午去看他。结果,他回信说,当天不可能。周六或周日可以。可是,周六和周日我们都不行,所以就说周一中午。

周一中午,我和瑞克一起去看他。他已经坐在轮椅上,不能走路。他说他很高兴我们能来看他。我说,非常感谢你对PROFOCA的支持。PROFOCA能一路走来,你的贡献是不可或缺的。告别时,我说我从伦敦回来就会再去看他。没想到,周日,他就走了。

佛雷德是一个热心的人。他担任PROFOCA审计多年,工作一丝不苟,每次都教我哪里是对的,哪里不合适,怎么改,都非常认真。尽管我们的预算只有几千块钱,但是,我学会了工作方法。

佛雷德是一个认真的人。他毕业于瑞典皇家科技大学,本来是学冶炼专业的。但是,他酷爱滑雪和野营。通过对北极冰川的研究,他开始对气候问题感兴趣并认真钻研。他到过美国休斯顿航天局调研。阅读大量史前气候资料。通过和许多国际上的气候专家交流研讨,他认为气候变化是自然的,不是人为的。从2006年11月份的第一场雪之后,气候变暖的趋势,几乎是让人人都能感觉得到。

但是,佛雷德认为,这是因为太平洋海底的热浪从海底流到两极造成的。气候变冷变暖都是自然现象,不是人为的因素造成的。不应该吓唬人们。他认为,人类其实需要二氧化碳,这样,可以进行更多的生产,好为人类提供更多的农产品。但最让我印象深刻的是,他说,过几年,我们还将遇到比较寒冷的冬天。人们应该做好准备。

佛雷德是一个斗士。他坚持自己的观点,即使在哥本哈根气候大会上,他也直抒他的观点,他到美国去讲学,到日本去讲学,到挪威去讲学,在过去五年里,就是说当他得知得了癌症之后,他依然到世界各地旅行,宣传他的观点。他坚持不懈。

我不知道今天的大雪真的是象他说的那样,太阳黑子多了,挡住了阳光,所以,气候变冷了,还是真的因为世界经济不景气,关闭了工厂,导致气候变冷了?因为历史上,1929年-1931年的经济危机时,世界气温是下降了很多。

有人说,气候变暖是长期的,要到2100年北极的冰就要全部化成海水。到那时,北极可以自由航行成为不冻海域了。商人们和政客们立即想到要如何分配那里的资源。

但是,佛雷德说,他认为北极的冰不但没少,反而增厚了。他的观点是地球的冷热不是人类活动能左右的,主要问题取决于太阳的活动。当然,如果发生火山喷发,挡住云层,也会对地球的气温产生影响。但是,他并不否认人类工业生产造成了严重的环境污染。大气污染。这种污染可以通过改善汽车的三滤,减少污染气体的排放。也可以通过洗煤,使用清洁能源。保护环境不受污染,是人类的职责,是政治家的职责。应该这样做,但他警告政治家不要受IPCC之类的文件影响,因为,他们的监测位置是不科学的。

佛雷德说,人类行为也可以造成热岛效应,例如北京市内的温度可能会比郊区的温度高出两三度。这是人类行为,高楼大厦,机动车等造成的。但从长远看,气候变化是自然的。

我本人其实是觉得我们人类的行为确实改变了我们的生存环境,因此,人类有责任改善我们的环境,保护我们的环境。因为我们没有车的时候,天确实就是蓝,有了很多车以后,就出现了雾霾。但是,我也不想吓唬人。只是觉得为什么我们得癌症的人越来越多,呼吸道病越来越多,这肯定与我们的环境有关。我们必须引起重视。

我认为佛雷德的观点值得尊重,他这个人值得尊重。他女儿对我说,他为我们带来了大雪,真好!窗外大雪一直不停地下着。

他的去世是我们PROFOCA的巨大损失。我相信也是气候界同仁的一个巨大损失。我们将永远怀念他!

佛雷德的葬礼将在12月2日在立丁岛举行。

陈雪霏是瑞典专业外国记者协会PROFOCA的会长,理事会主席。

 

 

以下附笔者2010年采访Fred Goldberg的文章:

Swedish expert says CO2 is not the main cause of global warming

13:28, April 22, 2010      

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Swedish climate expert Dr. Fred Goldberg has said that carbon dioxide is not the main cause of the global warming. The climate change is not affected by human action, but mainly by the solar activities and ocean currents such as PDO (Pacific Decadal oscillations). He even predicts that the earth is going to experience colder winters in the following years or even decades.

Goldberg stressed that man should separate the concept of climate change from environmental issues. He holds that climate change is natural and caused by the sun activity, but the urban heat island effect and environmental problems are mainly caused by human activities and behavior. In an exclusive interview with People’s Daily Online, Goldberg explained his ideas.

History of climate on earth

“We could have an ice age any time,” Dr. Goldberg says, “Over the past one million years, we have experienced eight ice ages. Eighty percent of the last million years was ice age. We are lucky to live in this short inter-glacial period.”

“If we go down to the last 4000 to 3500 years in the Bronze Age period, it was three degrees warmer than today on the northern hemisphere at least,” Goldberg explained.

“Two thousand years ago, during the Roman period or during China’s East Han Dynasty, the temperature was two degrees higher than now,” he said.
During the Viking era a thousand years ago it was one degree Celsius warmer.

Goldberg said there is a nearly 1000 year cycle in climate change but there is a downward trend indicating that we are going towards a new ice age within 4000 years.

During the Viking era or the medieval Warm Period it was warm enough to grow grapes and cereal in England, he said.

“We had a new peak in high temperature in 2002 after a solar activity maximum, now the temperature is going down again. So we are heading into a cooling period.”

“If you look at the last 150 years, we had a warming period from 1910 to 1940 and then a cooling period from 1941 to 1977. Then it was a warming period from 1977 to 2002,” Goldberg said. This shows a 60 year cycle correlating to the ocean current PDO in the Pacific Ocean.

During the depression period 1929-1933, the production of CO2 went down by 30 percent. But due to the increase of the global temperature, the CO2 increased in the atmosphere because of the heating of the oceans thereby emitting CO2.

In 1991, there was an eruption of the Pinatubo volcano, one saw the reduction of CO2 because the volcano ash blocked the sun causing a cooling of the oceans. Goldberg said this is an indication that it was the solar activity that decides the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Can we trust the measurement of the global temperature?

Dr. Goldberg said that there is an urban effect around heavily populated cities in our world, for example, the gap in temperature between the suburban Stockholm and the city center can often be at least 2 degrees Celsius. And the gap between Beijing city center and Great Wall area can be six degrees Celsius. The urban effect is caused by human’s construction, transportation and the density of the housing and population, but this is not a global effect.

“You cannot compensate for urban effects because you don’t know how much it is, it changes with cloudiness, time of day, sun position over the horizon, wind intensity and direction and winter or summer,” Goldberg said.

He questioned the accuracy of the measurement in Al Gore’s The Inconvenient Truth. He said that in the USA about 900 stations accounting to 78 percent of the total are incorrectly located such as in the parking place or airports near the airplanes or runways where he believes it is definitely hotter than other natural areas such as mountains or rivers.
About 90 percent of the places where they measured the temperature are not according to regulations and have an error of 1 to 5 degrees C, which he thinks is very big. The only accurate way to measure temperature is with satellite, Goldberg said.

Another thing that matters is that climate scientist must do what they say they do,” Goldberg argued.

Phil Jones in Hadley Centre said he wouldn’t give out the data about his 25 years of work to someone who only wants to find something wrong with it thereby violating the Freedom of Information Act, Goldberg held.

How much carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere?

How much CO2 is there in the air? Only 0.0387 %, it has neither odor, nor color and is not poisonous. If there isn’t CO2, there will not be plant life, therefore, we must have CO2, we need it, Goldberg argued.

He said that the average amount of water vapor is 30.000 ppm. So the consequence of that is that 95 percent or even up to 98 percent of the total greenhouse effect is water vapor while only one percent is CO2. The other greenhouse gases are ozone, methane and CFC, etc.

Goldberg said even if human beings emit 100 ppm CO2, 98 percent of it will go into the ocean because of the chemical balance between the oceans and the atmosphere. The remaining 2 ppm will be added to the atmosphere which is negligible because there isn’t enough oil and gas in the world to generate enough carbon dioxide to change the climate.

Over the past 100 years, with an increase of 100 ppm CO2, the earth temperature only increased 0.7 degree. Thus it is not possible for the temperature to increase 2 degrees globally which our politicians want to prevent, Goldberg said.

Why? Goldberg explained that the ocean will absorb large amount of CO2. Once it is absorbed by the ocean, it will to some extent become calcium carbonate which is the same thing as limestone. Then the limestone will be building up at the bottom of the oceans. The whole island of Gotland which is the largest island in Sweden is formed of limestone.

“It was built up at the bottom of the ocean because the ocean absorbed the CO2 and when saturated it formed limestone sediments at the bottom of the ocean. The CO2 content in the atmosphere has been shrinking continuously. A billion years ago, there was 80 percent CO2 in the atmosphere, now it is 0.038 %. It ‘s been shrinking all the time, it is continuing because of the formations of limestone sediments in the oceans.” Goldberg explained.
He said that the transport of CO2 is controlled by ocean temperature. For example, one can send CO2 bubbles into a bottle of cold water which is about 5 degrees C, but if one opens the bottle and puts it on the table, the water temperature will increase, and the CO2 will leave the water soon.

The same theory, the lakes absorb a lot of CO2 in winter and it releases the CO2 in summer when the temperature reaches 23 to 25 degrees, you won’t have much CO2 in the water. Thus this is a natural process and with all the minerals in sea water, the sea water can absorbs 73 times more CO2 than fresh water.

“Mount Mauna Loa in Hawaii is the world’s largest live volcano which emits a lot of CO2. 87 percent of the data recorded there has to be edited. The data may therefore have been manipulated,” Goldberg said.
He said that in 1973 there was a big eruption and there were no measurements done for 3 months, but there is no data gap in the diagrams. Why? Asked Goldberg.

“Many climate scientists are bluffing in order to please the politicians who want to put a tax on CO2. These scientists live in symbiosis with the politicians. They both depend on each other,” Goldberg criticized this.

Solar activity decides whether the temperature is up or down

Goldberg said that solar activity has increased 3 times according to records from NASA earth observatory. This is something we can’t do anything about.

“The activity of the sun shows the highest activity ever recorded in 2002. Earlier history of solar activity can be seen from the distribution of isotopes in rocks and biomass which are depending on the solar activity,” Goldberg explained.

Sun activity heats the sea surface, and the sea releases CO2. Over the past 100 years, 100 ppm CO2 were emitted due to the warming of the sea surface.

In the atmosphere, there is 750 gigaton of carbon. In the ocean there is 38.100 gigatons of Carbondioxide. That is 50 times more according to the famous Henry’s Law. Henry’s law says that 98 percent of CO2 stays in the ocean while about 2 percent stays in the atmosphere.

It is estimated that humans today generate about 8 gigaton CO2. Thus we release approx. one percent of CO2 to the atmosphere. The biomass is absorbing 121 gigaton and the oceans 92 gigaton. That means 28 percent of the CO2 in the atmosphere is absorbed each year in a cycle. All the CO2 in the air will be absorbed in less than 5 years, which means if we emit one percent a year, that percent is also included in the absorption. So one can never find more than 4 percent of CO2 in the atmosphere coming from humans,” Goldberg explained.

Along the equator, the sun is heating the water. When the water is warmer, the water is releasing carbon dioxide (CO2). The colder the water is, the more CO2 it absorbs. And therefore the colder waters around the Arctic and Antarctica will absorb a lot of CO2. There is a huge cycle of CO2. If you take out the CO2 for plants, then the ocean will evaporate more to air. If you emit more, the ocean will take it up. Ocean controls the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The sun controls the ocean temperatures which in turn has a strong effect on the climate on earth.

“The people of Bangladesh breaths out 75 million tons CO2 per year, Sweden generates 60 million tons per year from all its industrial activities, transports and warming of houses etc. while the people in China breathes out 700-800 million tons per year. What does it mean? It means to reduce the amount of the CO2 will have no effect on our climate at all. You cannot do anything, I mean you cannot stop the sun from coming up tomorrow morning. If we cannot stop the sun from going up in the morning, can we change the CO2 system in the atmosphere? It is self regulated and sun-controlled,” Goldberg said.

Why comes El Nino?

So far no one can give a good explanation on why we have El Nino or other stormy weather. But Goldberg has his explanation.
“The sun is heating the ocean surface and water is evaporating off. When the water evaporates from the ocean, the salinity in the surface water increases. Then the water gets heavier. So the warm water get heavier and sinks, and then the less heavy water flows up to the surface. It exposes to the sun, and the same process continues. There is a salty warm water going down, and it drifts off with the current under the surface for some time. Then suddenly the current hits another current and pushes the water up, then comes up to the surface and releases the heat it collected. It happened on the east and west side of the Pacific Ocean depending on the pattern of the current,” Goldberg said.

Why does the arctic ice melt?

Goldberg explained that the reason we have the Gulf Stream is that the rotation of the earth creates a force to push the water north. To stop the Gulf stream, one has to stop the rotation of the earth.

It is the same theory with the ancient trade current or trade wind, when you travel from Europe to China, you have to wait for the winds to go in that direction and when you arrived in China, you have to wait another six months until the wind change direction so that you could sail back again.
Goldberg said in 1977, there was a great climate shift in the Pacific Ocean, the temperature in Alaska increased by 3 degree C in one year. In 2008, it decreased 3 degrees back to normal which means the warm water is not going to the Arctic Ocean any more.

“So when you hear the ice in Arctic Ocean is disappearing, it was because of this warm current flowing to the Arctic. Now it has stopped. So the ice is building up again. Very few seems to have understood this. They think it is the global warming that has melted the ice, but in fact, it is the warm current that melted the ice,” Goldberg said.

Then also strong currents carried the ice out into the Atlantic where it melts.
Goldberg said whether the current is warm or cold depends on if the PDO is positive or negative. If it is positive, there is warm current entering the Arctic Ocean and if it is negative, the warm water stays in the western Pacific Ocean.

Goldberg already predicted in the summer of 2009 that the 2010 winter will be a very cold one because the solar activity was zero according to data in NASA in the US and Kiruna in Northern Sweden.

“If we look at the history, we see almost three years without sun spot. Thus, I think it will be cold. Last time with a similar situation was between 1810 and 1812. That also coincided with the time when Napoleon invaded Moscow,” said Goldberg.

“I think China should prepare for future cold weather because as a consequence the food production will go down.” Goldberg concluded.
Goldberg focuses on climate issues for over a dozen years with well grounded science knowledge. He used to teach in Sweden’s Royal Technology University.

By Xuefei Chen, People’s Daily Online correspondent in Stockholm, chenxuefei7@hotmail.com

(Editor:张洪宇)

新闻分析:特朗普出人意料地当选美国总统

北欧中华网评论员 陈雪霏

早上天还是漆黑,老公来到床边说,告诉你一个不幸的消息,川普真的赢得大选了。前一天晚上,他就说,他要半夜起来关注美国大选结果。一周前PROFOCA还举办美国大选分析,方方面面都希望希拉里赢,因为她赢了,世界可能还是business as usual. 而川普是谁?当选前,很多人都不知道。

正是因为川普是个地道的商人,只有家族势力,没有别的政治影响,与职业政客希拉里的政治资历相比,天壤之别。希拉里丈夫比尔克林顿当过总统,她自己也在政治上很突出,被各方人士看好。大部分美国政界的人也觉得希拉里应该获胜。昨天,美国驻丹麦大使还说,他希望希拉里获胜。自然,一切与希拉里打过交道的人都希望希拉里获胜,主要原因就是他们不熟悉川普,而且觉得川普太能忽悠,好话是说尽了,能实现吗?

然而,在这个大雪纷飞的日子里,在这个经济不景气,失业率很高,人们都感到有点儿对世界迷茫的时候,对两个候选人都不看好的情况下,美国人选择了商人川普。

川普在当选后的演讲中表示,要重建美国,重新点燃美国人的美国梦。他感谢他的家族的支持。川普怎么就当选了呢?川普说,我们的选举团人少,也没花太多钱,希拉里争的厉害。但川普的人都是至亲挚友,真心支持,川普的许诺让很多人感到宽慰,他们太希望美国继续保持一切都是第一了。而川普就这样承诺。川普的药方也是一切都要重建。

此前也有报道说,美国的铁路公路,很多基础设施都有些老化,都需要重建。而要重建,就会需要工人,就可以提高就业。

现在,川普说,他要团结美国人,把一盘散沙的美国凝聚起来,那些不支持他的人,他也要向他们伸出橄榄枝。

川普的当选,先是让人感觉出乎意料,但是,从另一个角度讲,这只能说现在的人们觉得世界变化太大,不太适应变化。而美国总统竞选的过程往往都是充满变数。当然,这也反映了美国社会是财团控制的社会,当经济不景气时,人们更希望一个能搞经济搞商业的人上台。

在外交方面,川普表示,把美国利益放在第一位,与其它国家平等发展外交关系。

川普的当选,导致股票下跌。

不过,笔者认为,川普是个商人,他可能也是比较务实的。如果真的能从这种积极的角度出发,希望能为美国经济提振。但同时,他的当选,对于世界形势,增加了更多难以预料的变数。因为有些时候,放任资本主宰社会,可恶的事情也会发生。 或许还是那个熟套,人们习惯了希拉里,但也希望能有点意想不到的变化。

斯德哥尔摩今天鹅毛般的大雪一直下个不停,真不知道是瑞雪兆丰年,还是气候回归到十年前了。2006年11月初,瑞典大雪也非常大。