By Xuefei Chen Axelsson
STOCKHOLM, Sept. 1(Greenpost)– 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held on Oct. 18, according to Xinhua News Agency, which has been widely republished.
Chinese President, Party General Secretary and Chairman of the Military Committee of China Xi Jinping will preside over the congress.
It is reported that small scale meeting will start on Oct. 11 already and to announce the formal national congress will be held on Oct. 18th. It is expected that 2300 delegates will attend the national congress which is held every five years.
This is a far-reaching significient meeting for the Chinese nation and the party because it will decide the Chinese leadership for the next five years, map out next five years policy directions and vision for the next five years.
It is also important and aroused wide range attention around the word because many leaders have come to the age of retirement. Then it is expected that there will be bigger shift of personnels in the politburo and the central committee of the CPC.
The oder generation are mostly born in the 1940s and the new generation leaders are likely the ones who were born in the 1950s and 1960s.
The twice-a-decade party congress is, at its heart, a leadership transition event. The bodies that sit atop the Communist Party organization will see their makeup change significantly. These include the 25-member Politburo, the 7-member Politburo Standing Committee, and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the internal discipline organ that has come to the political foreground since 2012.
Greenpost believes that Xi Jinping will continue to be Chinese Party General Secretary, President of China, and Chairman of the Chinese Central Military Committee.
Over the past five years, Xi Jinping held high the flag of anti-corruption and in general changed China’s social style of eating too much, drinking too much, sexing too much and woke up many officials from their hectic singleminded unhealthy life style by anti-corruption movement. Even though it is as if a movement, it gave China a good break. Xi Jinping also worked hard in improving Beijing’s air by administrative means and technically innovative means. He gave people an impression that he is closer to the ordinary people and won a lot of praise among Chinese people.
He helped Chinese found their soul.
Some people are still complaining that he only cracked down on “Tigers” but not “Flies”. And the “flies” are even worse for grossroot people. It’s believed that if he continues to be president, this issue will be further solved. So far, his vision is right and welcomed. He has launched innovative ideas both domestically and internationally. His belt and road initiative has been welcomed and many believe that if this idea is applied well, it will fundamentally promote peace and development in the world.
Party General Secretary Xi Jinping
The following is an introduction of the Chinese leaders and their possible destination at the forth-coming party congress. It is a speculation or prediction from the Wikipedia. It doesn’t represent Greenpost’s view.
There is very little doubt that Xi Jinping, who will be 64 at the time of the congress, will continue for another term as General Secretary, the party’s top leadership position and de factoleader in the one-party state. There is uncertainty, however, around whether the other personnel changes at the congress will signal that Xi would stay on for more than two terms per convention.
If Wang does not remain a member of the committee, and assuming both Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping stay, and further assuming that the committee will retain a seven-member structure, the remaining five members will likely be selected from the 18th Politburo members born after 1950. There are 11 such non-military individuals who fit this criteria. Of these putative candidates, only two, Li Yuanchao and Wang Yang, will have completed two terms (ten years) on the Politburo by 2017, and therefore have the advantage of seniority to advance to the standing committee. However, given the changes in the Chinese political landscape since Xi Jinping took power, this is far from assured.
- Wang Huning (born 1955) – major figure in charge of theory and ideology in the Communist Party, is said to not show too much political ambition personally but may be elevated to the standing committee in 2017
- Liu Qibao (born 1953) – former party chief of Sichuan, and current head of the Propaganda Department
- Sun Chunlan (born 1950) – former party chief of Fujian and Tianjin; current head of the United Front Department; her chances to enter the standing committee are low, but if she does make it to the elite body, it would be the first time a woman has achieved this rank in the history of the party. Sun also has the distinction of being the Politburo member with the longest tenure on the Central Committee, joining as an alternate member in 1997
- Li Yuanchao (born 1950) – Vice-President; Politburo member since 2007; a tuanpai member, initially seen as a promising candidate for further elevation, his chances are seen as somewhat reduced due to corruption scandals in Jiangsu province, where he was once party chief. Indeed, some sources speculate that Li may not even retain his own Politburo membership.
- Wang Yang (born 1955) – former party chief of Chongqing and Guangdong province; Politburo member since 2007; seen as one of the more ‘liberal’ members of the ruling elite; was speculated as a candidate for the 17th standing committee but ultimately did not make it
- Zhang Chunxian (born 1953) – party chief of Xinjiang who was transferred to become deputy leader of the Leading Group for Party Building a year prior to the Congress; observers are split on his chances of advancement
- Zhao Leji (born 1957) – head of the Organization Department; Zhao’s career is seen as a boilerplate for politicians of his generation, having served as party chief and head of a central department, he would have a flawless resume for entry into the standing committee; however, he is, relatively speaking, younger than some of his colleagues, and thus could conceivably vie for a standing committee seat in 2022 instead
- Hu Chunhua (born 1963) – speculated during the 18th Party Congress as an incoming “heir apparent”, though the political landscape has changed since Xi’s ascension to power; his further advancement is now seen as uncertain; his track record in Guangdong has been defined by the on-going anti-corruption campaign. Guangdong’s economic growth rate has slowed from its double-digit pace in earlier years to 8% in 2015.
- Li Zhanshu (born 1950) – seen as a major Xi confidant whose chances of elevation to the Standing Committee is considered likely
- Han Zheng (born 1954) – party chief of Shanghai; generally seen as having a strong technocratic record; has spent his entire career in Shanghai, which is seen as making his case weaker for the standing committee
There is also some speculation that the Standing Committee will be abolished altogether.
According to convention, Politburo members entering the body in 2017 must be born after 1950. Since the 1990s, individuals ascending to the Politburo generally have experience as provincial party chiefs. It is considered extremely unlikely for an individual to directly ‘jump’ from a provincial governor directly to the Politburo. As the provincial level remains dominated by cadres born in the 1950s, competition for a seat on the Politburo is intense. Outside analysis to date has been largely focused around former subordinates of Xi who are currently in provincial or ministerial-level leadership positions; these individuals are seen as the most likely candidates for Politburo membership.
- Chen Min’er (born 1960) – former subordinate of Xi Jinping in Zhejiang province, now party chief of Guizhou; his ascension to the Politburo is considered likely
- Li Qiang (born 1959) – former subordinate of Xi Jinping in Zhejiang province, now party chief of Jiangsu
- Chen Quanguo (born 1955) – former subordinate of Li Keqiang in Henan, party chief of Tibet (2011–16), party chief of Xinjiang beginning in 2016; his ascension to the Politburo is likely
- Li Hongzhong (born 1956) – party chief of Tianjin; Li has experience as party chief of the Special Economic Zone of Shenzhen, and governor and party chief of Hubei province. His CV is impeccable from a technocratic and regional-coverage point of view, but he has seen his share of controversies with journalists over the years
- Li Xi (born 1956) – considered an ally of Xi; party chief of Liaoning
- Cai Qi (born 1955) – current party chief of Beijing, considered an ally of Xi
- Du Jiahao (born 1955) – former party chief of Pudong; party chief of Hunan
- Liu He (born 1952) – Liu, head of the Office for Financial and Economic Affairs (Zhongcaiban), has been something of a top economic advisor to Xi
- Bayanqolu (born 1955) – former subordinate of Xi Jinping in Zhejiang province, party chief of Jilin; should Bayanqolu become a Politburo member, he would be the first ethnic Mongol to hold a seat on the body since Ulanhu, and the first Mongol ever to hold a Politburo seat without having held high office in Inner Mongolia
- Zhou Qiang (born 1960) – a tuanpai member, current President of the Supreme Court; while a transfer from the Supreme Court position to the Politburo would be unprecedented, Zhou Qiang is only one of three individuals born after 1960 to have already achieved sub-national ranks on the Communist Party hierarchy
- Guo Shengkun (born 1951) – Minister of Public Security; it has been, since 2002, convention for a former Minister of Public Security to take on the post of Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, which entails Politburo membership
- Huang Qifan (born 1952) – Mayor of Chongqing; there was some speculation that Huang would become Vice-Premier, which would entail Politburo membership; it is also conceivable that Huang will, after serving as mayor for over six years, take over the role of party chief in Chongqing roughly in the same fashion Han Zheng did in Shanghai in 2012. Alternatively, Huang, who will be 65 by the time of the Congress, will need to step down entirely due to reaching retirement age
- Peng Qinghua (born 1957) – party chief of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
- Yang Jing (born 1953) – ethnic Mongol, former Chairman of Inner Mongolia and current Secretary-General of the State Council
- Ding Xuexiang (born 1962) – Ding, a major political aide to Xi for nearly a decade, is the current executive deputy director of the General Office of the Communist Party of China. Ding’s chances at the Politburo is entirely contingent on whether or not he will succeed Li Zhanshu as head of the General Office in the upcoming leadership transition, and whether or not this position continues to come with it a seat on the Politburo